Morning Minute | Downgraded Expectations

Morning Minute | Downgraded Expectations

TylerD's Market Summary

One project founder is telling holders to downgrade their expectations - is it an analogy for the entire market? A potential fix for overhyping? Read on to find out and catch up on this weekend in NFTs.

๐Ÿ“ NFT Weekend Recap: Frank, Jack and PROOF

Summer weekends have been slow, but this one may be an exception.

It was a roller coaster weekend in the NFT market, with highs (from Jack and PROOF), lows (from Frank DeGods) and then a relatively smooth finish (also from Frank).

The 2 marquee events leading this weekend:

  • The DeGods Debacle and Art Downgrade
  • Jack's Big Friday / Opepen Opepeng

DeGods Downgrade

Frank DeGods (DeGods and y00ts founder) was all up in his emotions this weekend.

The team first rolled out the DeGods Season III update early Thursday morning, mostly to "this is fine" reactions. They shared 20k new pieces of art (non-dilutive) including female DeGods, and teased their new rewards system Points Parlor.

Then a whale dumped their entire bag of 200 DeGods and 200 ETH worth of $DUST, and Frank seemingly began to unravel.

He started apologizing, speaking on dozens of spaces and then went back to the Lab.

On Friday he came back with a plot twist - downgraded art coming Sunday.

And yesterday afternoon we got it, with cleaner, simpler art coming for the DeGods (with a 333 $DUST price tag or $600).

The new art downgrade centered around fun, simplicity, minimum details, clean up of traits and removal of shadows.

They also postponed the female Degods, saying they needed more feedback from the females in the community before launching.

Before the launch, Frank debuted a video of himself explaining DeGods and why they're valuable, seemingly focusing on:

  • A strong community
  • Enhanced social presence and more followers
  • Support in launching individual projects

It was also revealed over the weekend that the y00ts move to ETH had not even been scoped yet and was doubtful to occur in 2023.

So to summarize, the major updates from y00ts 2 and DeGods 3 were a bridge to ETH (not happening anytime soon), new and cleaner DeGods art (opting for the 2nd choice of 5 options apparently) and the new credit card points system "Points Parlor" where holders can stake NFTs for prizes.

Time to downgrade your expectations indeed.

The market downgraded as well, with DeGods falling 30% to 6.44 ETH and no clear path back to their prior 8-9 ETH levels. y00ts also fell 19% on the week to 1.45 ETH.

It may be too early to draw a full conclusion, but it feels like the 3rd major PFP just fell from grace, following Azuki. It's now wide open for a new contender (and sadly my bet is Milady will take the 3rd spot on the PFP leaderboard).

Jack's Big Friday

Jack Butcher had an epic day on Friday.

Starting with Opepeng, Opepen set 11 faced a lot of risk.

The first 10 sets seem to have provenance for being first, but there were many open questions about where Jack would go next with the project.

Rumors of allowing and using community designs were circulating, a move I personally didn't like.

The decision for set 11 was likely to set the direction for the next sets and near future - and the PFP brand collab was a smash success.

Jack has now unlocked all of the major PFPs (and their holders) as new potential buyers and collectors for Opepen. This also shows how he could collab with other major brands outside of PFPs.

Holders loved the direction, with the Opepen floor jumping 20% to 0.64 ETH and the Opepeng set over 11,500% subscribed (over 70% of the NFTs have opted in for the drop).

As for the PROOF reveal, this move cemented Jack's legacy and place in this current art market.

He is "the guy" in 2023. PROOF recognizes it, Jack's holders recognize it, and soon others will too.

Not many creators have had better years than Jack, and Friday's events were the next big step in building his legacy.

Speaking of PROOF, the team knocked it out of the park with Grails IV. Feedback was overwhelmingly positive, production value was through the roof as were the caliber of artists and reveal process.

Catch up with the artist reveal in our live thread from Friday.

Market Action

On to the rest of the market.

Here is a quick rundown of the notable floors and their 7-day price changes:

  • Fidenza: 90 ETH (even)
  • CryptoPunks: 48.99 ETH (-2%)
  • Ringers: 38 ETH (+9%)
  • BAYC: 28.8 ETH (-1%)
  • Gazers: 13 ETH (even)
  • Chromie Squiggle: 10.34 ETH (-1)
  • Grifters: 9 ETH (-3%)
  • DeGods: 6.44 (-30%)
  • PROOF: 5.69 ETH (even)
  • MAYC: 5.85 ETH (+2%)
  • Azuki: 4.94 ETH (even)
  • Captainz: 4.84 ETH (+5%)
  • Milady: 4.38 ETH (+27%)
  • Pudgy Penguins: 4.16 ETH (even)
  • Otherside Koda: 4.15 ETH (+4%)

So it was an incredible week of chop. Just look at those numbers, basically everything is even or within 5%. It's fairly aligned to how the crypto market has been as well.

There are 2 outliers, good and bad - DeGods falling 30% were the major losers on the week. And Milady's have now made it on the list, passing Pudgy Penguins and up 27% on the week.

They seem to have more momentum right now than any other NFT, largely due to their community ties within the crypto/altcoin/memecoin space, the hot market of summer.

My hot take? Milady's pass the mid-tiers and DeGods and take the #3 PFP spot by the start of fall.

๐Ÿšš What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the weekend in NFTs:

  • Trading volume again came in around 7k ETH on Sunday; NFTs mostly chopped on the weekend with the Milady ecosystem outperforming
  • RTFKT announced a new forging event for the Nike Dunk Genesis CryptoKicks coming soon, along with a teaser of the physical shoes
  • DeeKay Motion's "New Era" open edition ended on Friday with 71,496 mints and a total of 715 ETH raised ($1.32M); floors are currently at 0.0069 ETH, about 30% below mint
  • Autoglyph whale Kryptonik hit the bid on 1 of his 48 Autoglyphs late Friday evening for 165 WETH, raising the question of how many more he may be looking to sale
  • Notable Blur farmer Hanwe, infamous for tricking another bot out of 800 ETH in above-floor sales, seems to have lost all of his Blur points for alleged loan spoofing
  • Coca Cola launched their Masterpiece collection of NFTs on Base as part of Onchain Summer yesterday, with 8 pieces to choose from with price points from $1-$30 with designs featuring iconic artworks and Coca Cola bottles

๐ŸŒŽ Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • The crypto market chopped over the weekend; BTC even at $29,370; ETH even at $1,845; SOL -1% at $24.50
  • SBF had his bail revoked on Friday for evidence tampering, allegedly leaking Caroline Ellison's diary to the New York Times
  • Coinbase's new L2 Base saw its first day of net outflows on Aug 13 after briefly surpassing $200M bridged; the total now sits at $197M
  • saw over 6,900 ETH in trading volume in its first few days post-launch though momentum seems to be slowing a bit after a parabolic start
  • Gala Music and Ones To Watch, Live Nation's music discovery platform, will broaden their partnership to empower emerging artists with major festival stage opportunities

๐Ÿš€ NFT Total Volume

  • DeGods (2,210 ETH, 6.46 ETH Floor)
  • BAYC (1,044 ETH, 28.76 ETH)
  • MAYC (597 ETH, 5.85 ETH)
  • Pudgy Penguins (274 ETH, 4.13 ETH)
  • Milady (216 ETH, 4.38 ETH)

๐Ÿ“ˆ NFT Floor Price Increase

  • Metal Tools Access Pass (44%, 2.5 ETH Floor)
  • Full Send (67%, 0.37 ETH)
  • BatDadMigo (53%, 0.07 ETH)
  • Redacted Remilios (14%, 1.09 ETH)
  • Yue Minjun - Boundless (11%, 0.47 ETH)

๐Ÿ—“ Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today has a few notable art drops to kick off the week.

Artist 0xdgb is launching "The Cameras" as a new collection and PFP series along with Transient Labs. Collectors will be able to choose from a series of 70 distinct cameras with more to come in this dynamic set.

Then Casey Reas is back with a global drop "923 Empty Rooms", with one in-person mint per day starting today in Tokyo and spanning the other Bright Moments galleries each day this week. 

If you want more, see the full list of today's drops from Swizzy's daily mint monitor

  • Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
  • Art Blocks x Bright Moments "923 Empty Rooms (12:00 p.m. ET)
  • 0xdgb "The Cameras" (12:00 p.m. ET)
  • Onchain Summer (TBD)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.

Disclaimer: The author or members of the Lucky Trader staff may own NFTs discussed in this post. Furthermore, the information contained on this website or the Lucky Trader mobile application is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as financial advice. AI may have assisted in the creation of this content.