Morning Minute | How Low Can They Go?
GM!
Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints:
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TylerD's Market Summary
The NFT market is about to find out if there is a bottom, plus catch up Frank DeGod's controversial announcement tied to y00ts moving to Polygon today.
📉 Another Red Week for NFTs
Is there a price lower than 0?
Because it seems many NFT projects are about to find out.
I was out on vacation this past week in sunny South Florida with the family, and when I came to check in on prices this past weekend, the numbers were pretty shocking.
More deep red, all over the board.
The mid-tier PFP market especially is at levels not seen in over a year, and many projects seem to be on a path to revisit their mint price.
By the Numbers:
Here's a quick list of notable projects and their 7-day changes:
- Punks: 62 ETH (-17%)
- BAYC: 61.5 ETH (+1%)
- Azuki: 13.6 ETH (+2%)
- MAYC: 12.2 ETH (-8%)
- Squiggles: 10 ETH (-9%)
- PROOF: 9.35 ETH (-25%)
- Pudgy Penguins: 4.34 ETH (-9%)
- Clone X: 3.24 ETH (-3%)
- Doodles: 3.21 ETH (-13%)
- Moonbirds: 3.12 ETH (-23%)
- Otherdeed: 1.3 ETH (-18%)
The price arc of several of these NFTs, the mid-tier PFPs especially, seem to match the Google Trends chart for searches of "nfts" - also at yearly lows.
Many are now down 40-60% on the year, and it's becoming more difficult to see the catalyst for a rebound.
The biggest surprise for me was the lack of influx in volume from the Arbitrum airdrop.
While trading volume is up about 30% from Thursday's local low around 19k ETH, it does not seem that the NFT market is benefitting much from this major airdrop.
That's a concern, as almost every major airdrop in the past few years has led to a short-term spike in NFT trading activity.
The macro banking crisis and crypto volatility is certainly not helping the situation for NFTs, and it seems likely at this point that most NFTs will continue to suffer until the macro picture is a bit more calm.
Until then, or a major unforeseen catalyst, expect more pain.
🙊 "Y00topia Was A Lie"
That was Frank DeGod's provocative statement tied to the y00ts blockbuster announcement that the move to Polygon would start today March 27.
It feels like a "burn the bridges" or "crossing the Rubikon" moment for Frank and his projects and the Solana community.
We knew the move was coming for some time, but we did not know when or the finer details.
And the move is coming loaded with incentives to get holders to move off Solana, and soon.
The Details:
Here are the basics you need to know, from the y00ts team announcement:
- When?: March 27th (time TBD)
- Where?: Migration will take place on the y00ts official site; they recommend the Phantom multi-chain wallet, and to use the access code "Y00TS2"
- Why?
- Rewards: Hints of rewards for those who migrate in the first 24 hours, plus 1 BTC DeGod will be airdropped to a lucky migrater
- No gas fees: Gas fees for the migration will be covered by Magic Eden
- Free money: Every y00ts lister on Magic Eden Polygon will receive $5 in USDC (plus all trades are fee-free for 30 days)
- Higher royalties on Solana: DeLabs will be enforcing a 33.3% PHBT (paper hands bridge tax) royalty fee on the y00ts Solana collection, taking effect on April 3.
- No more utility on Solana: The points, airdrops, and community access are all being removed from Solana effective March 27
- y00ts t00bs can not be migrated: The t00bs can only be burned/revealed on Solana and holders are encouraged to do so
It was also announced that DeGods will migrate to Ethereum on March 31 (more info expected this week).
Those are some major incentives, and with the new 33% royalty tax, it is hard to see much continued trading happening on Solana.
The market is being forced to Polygon effectively, though some might use the nicer term "incentivized."
Market Reaction
The market has fallen on the news.
Since the announcement went out late Saturday night, the y00ts floor is down 16% to 139 SOL ($2,860 or 1.6 ETH).
The y00ts t00bs also fell about 13% to 167 SOL.
Sentiment seems to be fairly divided between excitement for this new chapter and anger at leaving Solana behind, as some Solana maxis feel their community is what made y00ts/DeGods what they are today.
We will certainly find out soon if this move to Polygon was a smart one for Frank and team, or if Polygon is just not yet ready to support a major collection.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
Here is the list of the major headlines from a slow weekend in NFTs:
- Trading volume came in just over 26k ETH both days this weekend, up about 30% from Thursday and Friday lows
- The Otherside's 2nd Trip was "won" by Team Glacia, who will receive a Winged helmet airdrop as a reward; overall the trip seemed widely acclaimed, with over 7,000 concurrent players across 3 Otherdeed plots, though the Otherdeed floor is down 17% on the week to 1.35 ETH
- Pudgy Penguins shared the utility news for the Pudgy Rogs, that they will serve as a multiplier for select on-chain drops, licensing deals, or future claims, only activated with a Big or Lil Pudgy Penguin
- PROOF debuted a new "web3 Creator Accelerator Program" on Friday, aiming to serve as an incubator for artists in a six-week sprint to build "the next groundbreaking projects in web3"; initial artist includes Terrell Jones, Alien Queen, Patrick Amadon and more
- CryptoPunk 685 was mistakenly burned on Friday when the owner was attempting to wrap the punk, after having bought it just 2 weeks prior for 77 ETH
- Escher introduced "Escher Exclusives" on Friday, which will be a set of limited edition NFTs from notable artists launching on the Escher platform in Seasons
- Doodles announced that the Doodles Genesis Boxes will open on March 31, revealing a set of wearable NFTs able to be paired with Doodles 2
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- The crypto market chopped over the weekend; BTC +0.7% at $27,900; ETH -0.5% at $1,760
- Arbitrum is trading at $1.27 now 4-days post-airdrop, putting it in 37th place by crypto marketcap ($1.6B MC)
- Nasdaq is launching a crypto custody business coming in Q2 2023
- Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon approved a law allowing the state to create a stablecoin
🚀 NFT Total Volume
- Wrapped CryptoPunks (11,450 ETH, 62 ETH Floor)
- Otherdeed (1,675 ETH, 1.33 ETH)
- MAYC (1,433 ETH, 12.2 ETH)
- Nakamigos (993 ETH, 0.16 ETH)
- Captainz (835 ETH, 4.98 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
- Nakamigos (83%, 0.16 ETH Floor)
- Killabits (27%, 0.95 ETH)
- YOU THE REAL MVP (13%, 45 ETH)
- Gucci (63%, 0.67 ETH)
- Kubz (18%, 0.76 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today has the standard Meme card and Art Blocks drops, both of which are tied to reeling ecosystems in down-only mode.
There are now 9 Meme cards with floors at 0.1 ETH or below, and if this trend continues, the Memes may not even continue to mint out. Though this is the last week for SZN2 cards, and as supplies should be lower, these may be some of the more valuable cards of the season.
Art Blocks drops have already started that trend of failing to mint out, with 7 of the last 19 projects still open for minting. So not expecting much from this drop today.
The wild card today is the y00ts move to Polygon, described above. Expect this to be the main event to watch, likely with a spike in liquidity.
- Winkles & Flam: Season 1 (8:00 a.m. ET)
- Memes by 6529 (12:00 p.m. ET); 0.06529 ETH mint
- AB Presents: transparency by usnea (1:00 p.m. ET); Dutch auction
- y00ts - migration to Polygon (TBD)
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.
