Morning Minute | SEGA Says Web3 Games Are Boring
Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints.
TylerD's Market Summary
SEGA wants out of Web3, at least for the time being. Find out why, plus catch up on the week's NFT market action.
📈 NFT Market Report
"Are we back?" and "Buy when others are afraid" were the choruses of NFT Twitter this past week.
These came after a strong rebound rally formed during the latter half of the week, pushing most of the major top-volume PFPs back into the green after a blood bath.
So is the bottom really in this time?
By The Numbers
Let's take a quick look at notable project floors and their 7-day change:
- Fidenza: 85 ETH (+16%)
- CryptoPunks: 47.49 ETH (+16%)
- Ringers: 40 ETH (even)
- BAYC: 33.4 ETH (+12%)
- Gazers: 17.5 ETH (-8%)
- Grifters: 10 ETH (-5%)
- Chromie Squiggle: 9.5 ETH (+3%)
- DeGods: 8.83 (+27%)
- Azuki: 7.13 ETH (+8%)
- PROOF: 6.69 ETH (+16%)
- MAYC: 6.62 ETH (+20%)
- Captainz: 5.58 ETH (+2%)
- Otherside Koda: 4.62 ETH (+40%)
- Pudgy Penguins: 3.95 ETH (+6%)
- BAKC: 2.62 ETH (+31%)
So the majors were almost all green on the week, with many up in the 20-30% range.
And that doesn't even count the lower-tier PFPs, with projects like HV-MTL (+57%), Doodles (+20%), and Moonbirds (+47%) seeing huge gains.
Some much-needed green on the board.
Why did we see these gains?
A few reasons.
First, at least the percent change, those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as the 7-day change window is looking back at the peak capitulation zone of last week.
The sharp uptick in the leading PFPs seemed to coincide with 1) leading farmer MachiBigBrother dumping most of his large farming bags of BAYC, Azuki and more; 2) Blur's introduction of trait bidding.
Point 1 there seems to have had a larger effect than point 2, with a "sentiment rally" definitely taking place once Machi exhausted his bags.
This likely drove the recent rally, which has been great. And perhaps some money has moved off the sidelines in some of the major PFPs like BAYC (helping to drive them from 27 ETH to 35 ETH).
But there's no evidence that fresh money is coming from new entrants. Daily users are below the 10k threshold with no sign of a breakout any time soon.
And this existing set of buyers are still reeling from the $40M+ taken up by Azuki in the Elementals mint.
Looking at NFT Stats large-cap index, the post-Elementals capitulation dip now looks obvious in hindsight, followed by a sharp rebound.
Zooming in on that chart looks great; zooming out, not so much. That index is now down ~50% on the year.
So while this rally has been nice, it doesn't seem strong enough or to have enough meaningful drivers behind it to buck this larger trend - at least for now. But let's enjoy it while we can.
🎮 SEGA Leaves Web3 Gaming
"The action in play-to-earn games is boring...What's the point if games are no fun?"
That quote from SEGA's Co-Chief Operating Officer Shuji Utsumi in a report from Bloomberg is an excellent "sign of the times."
And it has led to SEGA suspending its blockchain gaming operations.
In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Utsumi spoke of SEGA's shift away from blockchain gaming to avoid "devaluing its content."
That shift includes:
- Withholding major franchises from third-party blockchain projects
- Halting development of in-house blockchain games
- External parties will still able to use its lesser-known franchises for NFT projects
- No commitment towards use of Web3 tech in its 2026 "super game" initiative (a lineup of high-budget online multiplayer games)
Not great, at least in the near term. But perhaps it presents an opportunity for more Web3 native teams to be disruptors in the gaming space vs the traditional giants.
Also, while this is definitely a major move by SEGA, they aren't slamming the door shut entirely.
They alluded to remaining open to blockchain tech for gaming on a longer-term horizon.
“For the majority of people in the video game industry, what blockchain advocates say may sound a bit extreme, but that’s how the first penguin has always been,” Utsumi said, in his Bloomberg interview. “We should never underestimate them.”
Great advice from Utsumi - never underestimate a Penguin 😉.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
Here is the list of other notable headlines from the weekend in NFTs:
- Trading volume came in around 12k ETH on Sunday, NFTs again saw a mix of red and green on the day
- Ether paused its mint after minting just over 200 NFTs in its public sale while the team evaluated how to proceed; there are currently 2,075 NFTs in the set with a 0.5 ETH floor (public mint was 0.65 ETH)
- The Azuki vote to change the Elementals background art ended on Saturday with a majority "no" and thus no change will be made
- Opepen 009 "Unity" by Opepen dev Jalil_ETH revealed on Sunday and the floor opened at 1.24 ETH
- Notable sales over the weekend included 3 Fidenza sales which popped the floor up to 85 ETH and a Hoodie Punk which sold for 217 ETH
- The Gutter Cat Gang Twitter was hacked on Friday night, with the hackers posting a phishing link that led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of NFTs
- The Pudgy Penguins Banana Suit toys sold out in just 7 seconds in the limited release drop on NTWRK
- Nouns DAO added a proposal to create Pudgy Penguins collectibles with Nouns Glasses
- NBA Top Shot held a chat with NBA Commissioner Adam Silver at NBA Con in Las Vegas this weekend
- MLB All Star attendees will be able to claim a commemorative ticket NFT thanks to Candy Digital
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- The crypto market was even over the weekend; BTC -0.3%% to $30,200; ETH -0.3% at $1,860
- The President of Polygon Labs is stepping down at the end of this month; he will be replaced by the CLO
- The Fei Protocol had its Discord taken over by officials related to an outstanding class-action lawsuit
🚀 NFT Total Volume
- Azuki (1,850 ETH, 7.13 ETH Floor)
- BAYC (1,492 ETH, 33.4 ETH)
- MAYC (1,248 ETH, 6.63 ETH)
- Azuki Elemental Beans (763 ETH, 1.75 ETH)
- Azuki Elementals (668 ETH, 1.27 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
- You Are The Champion (176%, 24.8 ETH Floor)
- Terraforms (43%, 2.35 ETH)
- DigiDaigaku Heroes (41%, 0.55 ETH)
- 10ktf Kagami (31%, 2.57 ETH)
- Treeverse (26%, 0.26 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today features a few big name drops to kickstart the week.
First, Bob Loukas' Station3 Patron NFT mint kicks off today in its whitelist phase. Those eligible will have 24 hours to mint before the public sale, at the 0.88 ETH mint price.
Then, Fellowship AI is back with Post-Photographic Perspectives II. Given the success of their first drop, expect major attention on this one today.
If you want more, see the full list of today's drops from Swizzy's daily mint monitor.
- Station3 NYC (10:00 a.m. ET); 0.88 ETH
- Fellowship AI: Post-Photographic Perspectives II (11:00 a.m. ET)
- Typical Friends Mystery Drop (12:00 p.m. ET); 0.35 ETH
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email email@example.com.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.