Morning Minute | The PFP Market Shake Up

Morning Minute | The PFP Market Shake Up

TylerD's Market Summary

Major news across several PFP projects this weekend has set up a volatile market, potentially ripe for a new winner. 

๐ŸŽข A PFP Market Ripe for Disruption

It was a roller coaster weekend in the NFT market with most of the top PFP projects impacted and/or in the spotlight.

First on Friday morning, Yuga Labs announced a restructuring resulting in several layoffs.

Then later in the day Friday, Pudgy Penguin founder Luca Netz came under fire for parts of his past and previous project invovlement.

Fast forward to Sunday, and Frank DeGods made the announcement of "The Comeback," resetting DeGods to Season 1 and opening up the bridge of y00ts to ETH.

While these are headlines that could lead to volatility, the price action has been somewhat stable - for now.

NFT Market Overview

Now for a quick look at broader price action.

Here is a quick rundown of the notable floors and their 7-day price changes:

  • Fidenza: 50 ETH (even)
  • CryptoPunks: 45 ETH (-1%)
  • Ringers: 29.25 ETH (even)
  • BAYC: 26.25 ETH (-1%)
  • Gazers: 14 ETH (even)
  • Chromie Squiggle: 9.5 ETH (-3%)
  • Grifters: 9 ETH (even)
  • Pudgy Penguins: 5.12 ETH (+8%)
  • MAYC: 4.99 ETH (even)
  • Azuki: 4.28 ETH (+3%)
  • PROOF: 3.43 ETH (-3%)
  • Captainz: 3.35 ETH (+3%)
  • DeGods: 3.19 (even)
  • Otherside Koda: 3.15 ETH (even)
  • Milady: 1.86 ETH (-9%)

So a surprisingly steady week with 9 of the 15 projects on this list trading within a 1% window.

The winner on the week was Pudgy Penguins, which soared as high as 5.6 ETH in mid-week trading, though the shine has certainly worn off a bit after the recent allegations against Luca.

The Pengus have fallen ~10% since the news, and what had become the "darling" of the PFP market may be in for some turmoil - we will see how Luca's press tour continues to shape and impact that narrative.

The Yuga restructuring news seems to have been taken mostly well, as the team outlines its plans and focus areas (The Otherside) and removing distractions.

The DeGods and y00ts reset is the latest wildcard, with the y00ts now set to bridge to ETH (for free), along with the promise of a new launch which will address all the prior questions and fud.

One thing is for certain - it's as ripe of a market for change/disruption as it's ever been. We will see who takes advantage.

Speaking of disruption...

๐Ÿ‘ฅ Friend Tech Trend Tracker

The Friday Friend Tech airdrop was over-shadowed this week by the exploit of Stars Arena which led to the loss of the entire TVL of $3M.

Now the question becomes - does FT "win" in this scenario or does all of SocialFi take a hit?

Here are some of the core Friend Tech metrics for 10/9 and their day-over-day change:

  • Return users: 6,180-> 5,197 (-16%)
  • Daily Buy volume: $2.96M -> $1.87M (-37%) 
  • Total Volume: $6.5M -> $4M (-39%)
  • TVL: $45.9M -> $44.4M (-3%)
  • Highest key: Vombatus 8.24 -> 8.24 (even)

*TVL in ETH terms 28,300 -> 27,920 ETH (-1%)

A few big takeaways here - volume has fallen hard from the $10M range to $5M or less, and returning users is trending down.

Stars Arena certainly took some volume and attention, and its exploit likely shook some confidence in the entire SocialFI sector. That coupled with a volatile weekend across the world led to less app usage.

It seems like many have gotten fed up or have just quit the app entirely, and we may be seeing a lull period (perhaps end of this latest cycle) play out here now.

As for Friday's airdrop, the point average came in 73 points per ETH, with many see 80-100. The formula per @0xCaptainLevi's quant was mostly portfolio value + holder count + holding count.

A few other headlines from the day/weekend:

  • Mongraal (the Dookey Dash winner) joined, was botted to 0.4 ETH and settled around 0.25
  • A new FT derivative called "Hub3" launched on Solana
  • Hanwe launched his own version of a cartel, also making promises to his keyholders to make them whole from his prior sell off
  • The leaderboard saw a mild shakeup, with Racer falling to 4.1 ETH; there are now 2 accounts over 5 ETH, 6 over 4 ETH, and 12 over 3 ETH.

Now the market awaits the next catalyst to drive action one way or another, til then expect more chop and perhaps slight downtrend.

๐Ÿšš What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • Trading volume came in at $5M (3,100 ETH) on Sunday, while the leaderboard saw mostly red
  • DeGods led top volume on the day after The Comeback, though the floor fell 6% to 3.2 ETH; Otherdeeds were top notable gainer, +12% to 0.3 ETH
  • DraftKings Reignmakers once again finished 2nd on the week in overall NFT trading volume with $3.3M behind just DMarket and ahead of every ETH NFT
  • Winds of Yawanawa hold at 6.7 ETH ahead of a 5-day reveal process beginning today

๐ŸŒŽ Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • The crypto market fell slightly on Sunday; BTC -1.2% at $27,530; ETH -1.6% at $1,590; SOL -4% at $22.30
  • The Ethereum Foundation sold 1700 ETH on Monday morning, converting for $2.74M in USDC
  • MoonPay introduced "Swaps," offering a seamless, cost-effective cross-chain swapping experience in its app with over 1,500 trading pairs

๐Ÿš€ NFT Total Volume

  • DeGods (520 ETH, 3.18 ETH Floor)
  • BAYC (327 ETH, 26.25 ETH)
  • MAYC (194 ETH, 4.99 ETH)
  • CloneX (170 ETH, 1.07 ETH)
  • Azuki (165 ETH, 4.25 ETH)

๐Ÿ“ˆ NFT Floor Price Increase

  • Web (42%, 0.11 ETH Floor)
  • Seizon (36%, 0.06 ETH)
  • Yogapetz (27%, 0.14 ETH)
  • 10ktf G Tags (20%, 0.18 ETH)
  • Cyberkongz (15%, 0.32 ETH)

๐Ÿ—“ Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

It's a slower day to start the week, highlighted by Refik Anadol's 5-day reveal process. With an extended process like this, market action may be delayed a bit, but worth watching as this has become a marquee project in this market.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor

  • Nabeel - Crayons (10:00 a.m. ET)
  • Joy Division x Pace Gallery - CP1919 (12:00 p.m. ET)
  • Winds of Yawanawa - Reveal event (TBD)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.

Disclaimer: The author or members of the Lucky Trader staff may own NFTs discussed in this post. Furthermore, the information contained on this website or the Lucky Trader mobile application is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as financial advice. AI may have assisted in the creation of this content.