Morning Minute | VanEck Aims For ETH to Hit $154,000

 Morning Minute | VanEck Aims For ETH to Hit $154,000

TylerD's Market Summary

๐Ÿ“ˆ VanEck Shares Wild ETH Targets

Bears should be even more afraid than they were yesterday.

At least if VanEck has anything to say about it.

Their latest price targets for ETH will shock you (into becoming bullish if you aren't already).

What Happened?

Yesterday VanEck (the $90B investment firm) shared its "ETH 2030 Price Target and Optimal Portfolio Allocations" report.

And it came with some wild price targets.

They call for $22,000 ETH ($2.2T mc) by 2030 - as their base case.

Their bull case?

ETH to $154,000 ($18.5T).

That's not even the most important takeaway from the report.

They also share analysis backing up a 6% portfolio allocation to crypto for the average investor, saying it can "substantially improve the portfolio's Sharpe ratio" with only a small impact on downside.

Regarding that 6% allocation, they recommend a 70% Bitcoin / 30% ETH split for best returns.

This comes about 9 months after VanEck raised its 2030 bull price target for Solana to $3,211 ($350 for base case).

Dig In Further

When evaluating ETH, Van Eck calls out some key metrics:

  • 20M monthly active users
  • $4T in settlement value over past year
  • $5.5T in stablecoin transfers over the past year
  • $91.2B in stablecoins onchain
  • $6.7B in tokenized off-chain assets and 
  • $308B in digital assets

They then created their 2030 forecast by looking at ETH's TAM (total addressable market) which they calculated to be $15T based on:

  • Finance, Banking, and Payments - $10.9T (ETH gets 7.5%)
  • Marketing, Advertising, Social and Gaming - $1.1T (ETH gets 20%)
  • Infrastructure - $1.8T (ETH gets 10%)
  • Artificial Intelligence - $1.4T (ETH gets 5%)

They then assume that ETH will capture 70% of future crypto applications across all blockchains with a 5-10% take rate.

This brought them to a forecast of $66B in free cashflows, with a 33x multiple to get to $2.2T which equates to $22,000 per ETH.

Of note, but not directly tied to the valuation, they refer to ETH as:

  • Digital Oil
  • Programmable Money
  • Yield Bearing Commodity
  • Internet Reserve Currency

So even VanEck acknowledges the "what is ETH?" question has a variety of answers.

Why It Matters

There are certainly some lofty assumptions in here, specifically with those penetration rates for ETH's TAM along with it capturing 70% of crypto applications.

Still, it's interesting to see how an investment firm evaluates a crypto economy like Ethereum.

And clearly they are very bullish on its growth and on ETH being the primary home for a majority of builders over the next 6 years.

It's hard not to be more bullish after reading this.

Let's hope they're right.

Coinbase Debuts Its Smart Wallet

Arguably the most anticipated product launch from Coinbase in years is its Smart Wallet.

And yesterday we finally got it.

What Is It?

The pitch for its Smart Wallet is:

  • Easier onboarding via self-custody wallet creation in seconds with no need for seedphrases
  • Gasless transactions
  • Connecting Coinbase Balances to the onchain world in a one-stop-shop
  • Multi-chain support and integration (starting with the Super Chain)

Users can get started with just their Face ID, google chrome profile or fingerprint and start instantly. 

The wallet also features gasless transactions which allow apps to "sponsor" their users and pay their network fees.

The Smart wallets will support 8 networks to start (Base, Ethereum, Optimism, Arbitrum, Polygon, Avalanche, BNB, Zora), with their stated goal to add more support in the future. 

It offers a companion webapp allowing a comprehensive wallet management solution featuring sends, swaps, NFTs and more.

Perhaps the best part - the connection to a user's Coinbase Account allows them to pull funds whenever needed for onchain transactions allowing them to "say goodbye to 'insufficient balance' errors."

Why It Matters

More and more hurdles are being broken down as we look to onboard the masses into crypto.

Managing wallets across chains and providers with multiple seedphrases is a security nightmare - and it's actively being solved.

This wallet can be a true one-stop-shop once more chains are integrated (we still need Solana and Bitcoin).

The connection to the Coinbase balance is a nice perk for those who want to store crypto on Coinbase but want access to it "in a pinch."

It's definitely bullish for the space.

Will it pump Base tokens specifically? Probably not. 

But I don't think Coinbase is too worried about that. Besides, that's what Onchain Summer is for.

๐Ÿšš What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • ETH led NFT trading volume with $5.3M on the day (+8%); BTC was next with $3.2M (-40%) and then Polygon with $2.97M (+5%) 
  • ETH NFT leaders were slightly green with BAYC +2% to 12.75 ETH, Pudgy even at 10.4, Azuki +2% to 4 and Mocaverse +6% to 3.88
  • Forgotten Runes Wizards and Honey Combs were notable outperformers on the day
  • BTC NFT leaders pulled back on lower volume; Puppets -10% at 0.186 BTC, NodeMonkes -4% 0.283,  OMB -2% at 0.283 and Quantum Cats -3% at 0.307
  • The Runes board also saw red with DOG -10% ($858M mc), RSIC -5% ($250M) and PUPS +2% to $220M
  • Solana NFTs were mixed; Mad Lads even at 59 SOL, SMB Gen 2 -3% to 22, DeGods even at 25
  • Blastin Pepes led NFT action on Blast jumping nearly 2x from mint price to a 0.14 ETH floor in their first day of trading; most other Blast NFTs were red
  • The NBA Top Shot Chet Holmgren 1/1 sold for $32,000 on Wednesday marking one of the highest sales of the year

๐Ÿ’ฐ Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

  • Blast confirmed its airdrop will take place on June 26 and told Dapps they must distribute Gold by June 25, 8 am ET for it to count; they also told users to ensure signing up on the Blast dashboard and teased something coming for Dapps not yet launched on Blast
  • Blast also introduced a new GameFi multiplier requiring interaction with Captain & Company, Cambria, Super Sushi Samurai or Wolf Game to unlock
  • Parallel's $PRIME staking for $PROMPT went live with $60M already staked, with some locking for 3 years
  • NFTfi announced its $NFTFI token will be listed on gate.io and that they’re kicking things off with an $80k gamified campaign
  • Pacmoon crossed 2,000 Validators (those who hold 10k+ tokens) on Wednesday ($PAC held at $61M mc)
  • A Fantasy Top Epic Card (for GBH) sold for 15 ETH on Wednesday in the highest sale in weeks, not long after the team distributed cards for all of the Heroes

๐ŸŒŽ Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • Crypto majors are slightly green this morning; BTC even at $70,900; ETH +1.2% at $3,850, SOL even at $172.50
  • Memecoin majors are mostly red with DOGE -0.3%, PEPE +2%, WIF -3%, BONK -4%; MOTHER, BRETT outperform
  • The BTC ETFs saw another $488M in inflows on Wednesday, bringing this week's total near $1.5B
  • Coinbase debuted its Smart Wallet connecting users' Conbase balances to the onchain world and aiming to making onboarding easier, featuring sponsored transactions (apps can pay fees for you), fingerprint & face ID access, and no seedphrases
  • Base memecoin $NORMIE will relaunch tomorrow and execute a 1:1 token refund for those that held $NORMIE prior to its exploit
  • Polymarket odds on Biden dropping out of the 2024 election surged to 22% after a Wall St Journal piece saying that he's showing signs of slipping
  • Nansen announced it's now officially supporting Blast
  • Magic Eden opened up its iOS wallet to 2,000 test users
  • MetaStreet launched RWA lending on Base, allowing users to earn yield and borrow against luxury watches

๐Ÿš€ Memecoin Movers 

  • $WYAC (+84%, $9M market cap, Solana) 
  • $BENJI (+48%, $55M market cap, Base)
  • $MOTHER (+43%, $152M market cap, Solana)
  • $BOBO (+37%, $124M market cap, ETH)
  • $BENDOG (+35%, $62M market cap, Solana)

๐Ÿ“ˆ NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

  • Ultiverse (35%, 0.35 ETH Floor)
  • Matrix 2061 (32%, 0.98 ETH)
  • Cece Cube (32%, 0.25 ETH)
  • Ancient Seed (30%, 1.28 ETH)
  • Forgotten Runes (20%, 0.6 ETH)

๐Ÿ—“ Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is a busier day of mints and events.

Forbes Web3 is dropping its Forbes Pass.

The Machine is dropping on Bitcoin in one of the more anticipated mints in awhile.

Tyler Hobbs is doing a phygital and ACK is going live at Sotheby's.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor

  • CityVerse Tycoon (9:00 a.m. ET)
  • IsmaHelio - The Machine (9:00 a.m. ET)
  • Forbes Web3 - Forbes Pass (12:00 p.m. ET)
  • Tyler Hobbs x LACMA - Harbor Scene (12:00 p.m. ET)
  • Richard Zheng x Prohibition - Onchain Summer (12:00 p.m. ET)
  • People Are Strange (3:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

Disclaimer: The author or members of the Lucky Trader staff may own NFTs discussed in this post. Furthermore, the information contained on this website or the Lucky Trader mobile application is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as financial advice. AI may have assisted in the creation of this content.