Bales' Bites | Never a Bad Time to Build
I was traveling last week and took some time off from writing this newsletter. Just getting back into the swing of things now, catching up on news and whatnot. Did anything important happen in crypto while I was gon- OH MY FUCKING GOD!
Okay so things aren’t going that well. If you’ve lost money because of this little stupid nerd SBF and his stupid nerd friends, I’m sorry. Being stolen from is just one of the worst things in the world. Even if you didn’t directly lose money from FTX, you’re still likely feeling the repercussions.
At times like this, it’s normal to question things.
Should I sell my NFTs/crypto?
Is it smart to buy the dip?
Was I wrong about crypto all along?
When did I develop this rash?
It’s not nearly the same scale, but I was part of the potential “collapse” of an industry (a few times, actually). As a founder, I started a company in daily fantasy sports that was crushing right out of the gate. We were doing millions in annual run rate from the moment we started charging money, and then almost immediately New York ruled DFS to be illegal gambling and other dominoes began to fall. I felt like I was punched in the gut; mind you, I’m a fucking moron who was like 50% to be homeless at some point in my life, and after finally finding something that worked and that I loved and that allowed me to eat Lunchables by choice and not out of necessity, it was being ripped away from me.
Despite how I was feeling, there was no real question of what I should be doing because I had no doubts in my mind that I should be focusing my attention on DFS/sports betting. I didn’t know what the short-term future would look like, but I knew sports betting’s long-term future looked bright and I wanted to be a big part of it.
That’s how I feel about crypto right now. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the short- to medium-term, but I have conviction that crypto/NFTs will be a fundamental part of our lives in the long-term. Full transparency, because what I do is more important than what I say: I sold one Cryptopunk a few weeks ago (which I’ve kept in ETH), but otherwise have not bought or sold anything other than Reignmakers. There is a time when I’ll “buy the dip,” but I’m not at that point yet because I believe there’s potentially a lot more downside scenarios that could play out.
No matter how bad things get from here, my experience in sports (and crypto) taught me that sentiment can change rapidly. Then, many states were outlawing fantasy sports contests. A few years later, sports gambling of all types is legal in more than half of states. Things are usually not as good as they seem when they’re good, and they’re usually not as bad as they seem when they’re bad.
If you believe in something, the smartest way for you to “invest” is with your energy. Learn and create. Part of the reason I’m focusing on Reignmakers is because it’s more or less cycle-agnostic; becoming great at the game will pay off regardless of what happens to the price of ETH, for example. When it came to sports gambling, I just continued to work on my company and learn everything possible in the space because there was no other option. And because others were scared off, the long-term fruits of that labor were much greater.
I have no idea if we’ve bottomed and if it’s time to buy, or if we’re going to do another -70% and you’d be better off unloading things for the foreseeable future. Timing things is hard. My experience in sports, crypto, and other highly volatile markets as taught me this, though: when you believe in something, it’s never the wrong time to build.