Morning Minute | Election Day Predictions

TylerD's Market Summary

💰 What Does The Election Mean for Crypto?

After what feels like an eternity, the day of the U.S. Presidential election is finally here.

There is just a 20% chance that we will know who the winner is by tonight, but we should know by tomorrow.

So who's going to win? And what does it mean for crypto?

Who Will Win The Election?

Well, let's start with the models.

• Nate Silver's final model gives Kamala the slightest edge, leading 50% to 49.6% in what Nate describes as the closest race he's ever covered.
  • (Nate does go on to pick Kamala as his choice if he had to bet, citing her late momentum and the batch of high quality polls which came in for her these past few days.
• The Economist's model has Kamala up 56-43 (up 6% in the past day and 12% in the past week).
• And 538 has the election at 50-49 Harris.

So basically a coin flip, though Kamala has a slight edge.

Then there are the prediction markets.

Here's a glimpse of the current betting markets:

• Polymarket has it 62-38 Trump
• Kalshi has it 57-43 Trump

So the bettors like Trump quite a bit.

What do I think?

Well, I think Kamala at 38% is a good bet given the models all have her favored.

But this election has been truly difficult to have a solid read on. A Kamala landslide would not surprise me (especially after the Selzer Iowa poll), and a Trump landslide wouldn't really surprise me either.

In hindsight, the narrative for both of those outcomes will have been obvious.

Crypto Impact

Now, what does all of this mean for our crypto prices?

My foundational thinking is that crypto is primed to run into 2025-2026 regardless of who is the President.

"All roads lead to inflation" and Bitcoin has cemented itself as the primary inflation hedge asset for the younger generations - truly digital gold. I think that narrative will only grow stronger in the near future.

So Bitcoin is fine - what about everything else?

Here's my current view of what the next 3-6 months look like under each President (hard to forecast meaningfully beyond that window, and the hyper short term is likely to be very volatile):

• Trump win - BTC 🚀, ETH 📈, SOL 📈, Alts 📈, Memes 🚀
• Kamala win - BTC 📈, ETH 📈, SOL 📈, Alts 📉, Memes 📈

Pretty similar results!

Like I said, I don't think the election matters that much to crypto assets.

But there is some nuance. 

• In a Trump win, Bitcoin likely rockets to new ATH pretty quickly given his pro-Bitcoin comments (and potential strategic reserve). The door will be open to any and all ETFs (i.e. SOL ETF), and traders will look for a more forgiving regulatory environment for alts. And the memecoin supercycle likely kicks into overdrive.
• In a Kamala win, Bitcoin still goes up, but probably a bit slower. The market will think the SOL ETF is off the table for a bit, which may actually be good for ETH as the only other major ETF on the board. Alts probably continue their downtrend, but I do think memes still outperform as they cement themselves as the focus of this cycle (and Solana gets dragged up with its memes).

Those are my thoughts and predictions - let's see how it all plays out.

Good luck today!

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Ethereum led NFT trading volume with $3.9M on the day; Bitcoin was next with $1.4M, and then Solana with $1.1M
• ETH NFT leaders were mixed; Punks -4% at 25 ETH, Pudgy -5% at 8, BAYC +6% at 11.1, Milady -1% at 4.24, Azuki +2% at 4.88
• The Undead (+230%) and Gemesis (+240%) led top movers
• BTC NFT leaders were mixed; NodeMonkes +1% at 0.122 BTC, Puppets -2% at 0.125 BTC, OMB +2% at 0.15, Quantum Cats even at 0.227
• The Runes leaders mostly chopped; DOG even at $369M mc, PUPS +1% at $158M, GIZMO even at $17M mc, BDC -9% at $68M
• A Bonk-powered Runes trading bot is coming soon, letting users trade Bitcoin memes from Telegram.
• Fomo Mages jumped another 28% on Solana reaching a 60 SOL floor, now nearly double Mad Lads (32 SOL)

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are basically even ahead of the election; BTC even at $68,800; ETH -1% at $2,440, SOL -1% at $163
• Memecoin majors were green up 3-10% ; DOGE +9%, SHIBA +4%, PEPE -1%, WIF +1%, POPCAT +4%, and MOG +7%
• Global investment firm Bernstein issued a BTC price target of $90k in a Trump win and $50k for Kamala, although they think it goes to $200k by end of 2025 regardless
• UK Pension fund Cartwright disclosed a $59M position in Bitcoin (3% of its portfolio)
• Fairshake has already raised $78M for the 2026 elections thanks to contributions from a16z and Coinbase
• Legion partnered with Bluprynt to enable regulatory compliant ICOs in the EU, while also reducing costs
• Robinhood, Kraken, Paxos and others have teamed up to launch a stablecoin the Global Dollar (USDG) on Ethereum

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $TOAD (+94% to $11M market cap, SOL)
• $SIGMA (+32% to $116M market cap, SOL)
• $TEE (+42% to $19M market cap, ETH)
• $FARTCOIN (+27% to $49M market cap, SOL)
• $aura (+20% to $20M market cap, SOL)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Gemesis (240%, 0.01 ETH Floor)
• The Undead (230%, 0.07 ETH floor)
• 11 Captain's Club (130%, 1 ETH)
• Velocity Pass 2.0 (42%, 0.13 ETH)
• Koin Games (20%, 0.16 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a slower day of mints with the focus on the electoin.

Expect big attention on the memecoin market and any big runners could have some serious upside given all the attention today.

For those in the Charleston area, go check out Beeple's Election night event.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• BitMage (10:00 a.m. ET)
• rudxane x Verse - Sheets (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Rare Scrilla x AOTM - FAFO (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Beeple Studios - Election Night (5:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.d.warner@gmail.com.