Morning Minute | Fidelity Predicts Nation States Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025
TylerD's Market Summary
💰 Fidelity Says The Nations and Central Banks Are Coming for Your Bitcoin
Fidelity predicts 2025 will be a transformative year as nations and central banks turn to Bitcoin to hedge against economic challenges.
What Happened?
Fidelity Digital Assets released a report this morning forecasting that nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will strategically adopt Bitcoin in 2025.
The report cites macroeconomic pressures such as rising inflation, currency debasement, and surging fiscal deficits as driving forces behind this trend.
This of course comes after growing chatter around the U.S. and its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, largely driven by Senator Cynthia Lummis.
What They’re Saying:
Analyst Matt Hogan emphasized that not allocating to Bitcoin may become riskier than participating. Hogan went on to say:
"We anticipate more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in bitcoin."
Fidelity highlighted the potential influence of U.S. leaders like President-elect Donald Trump and Senator Cynthia Lummis, who have advocated for a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Lummis’s "Bitcoin Act of 2024" could accelerate global adoption if enacted, forcing other nations to follow suit.
Why It Matters
As governments face growing economic pressures, Bitcoin is emerging as a potential tool for financial stability.
If countries begin to accumulate Bitcoin, even without formally announcing their plans, it could trigger a global race to adopt the cryptocurrency.
Certainly if the U.S. makes any moves, the race will accelerate.
And in that scenario, none of us are ready for the impact to Bitcoin's price.
The asymmetric upside in that scenario, even if one models it as relatively low (say <25%) is enough to give any no-Bitcoiners serious pause.
If and when it happens, it will likely happen quickly.
And one clear rule in crypto (and all of investing) - you don't want to miss the up days...
🚚 What is happening in NFTs?
Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:
- ETH NFT leaders were red across the board down 1-2%; Punks even at 37 ETH, Pudgy -2% at 27.44, BAYC -1% at 16.26 ETH, Azuki -1% at 12.55 ETH
- Age of Dino (+60%), PX Quest (+26%) and Infinigods (+25%) led notable top movers
- BTC NFT leaders were mostly red; Bitcoin Puppets -7%, NodeMonkes -7%, OMB +1%, Quantum Cats -1%; AILU were the top mover up 17% to 0.024 BTC
- The Runes leaders were very red; DOG -10% at $595M mc, PUPS -18% at $75M, BDC -5% at $37M, GIZMO -7% at $12.5M
- Limit Break introduced their new Apptokens as "infinitely programmable token smart contracts," featuring task-linked tokens, trade-ratio, promotional spend-only use cases and more along with a TokenMaster launchpad for these ERC20-Cs
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
Here's a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:
- Hyperliquid published a post addressing recent feedback and criticism of the protocol and its validators
- Solana L2 SONIC has settled at a $330M mc ($2.16B FDV) after a full day of trading
🤖 AI x Crypto
New section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:
- Overall market cap fell more than 10% to $15.5B, with most leaders down 10-20%
- Leaders: VIRTUAL (-8%), ai16z (-13%), FARTCOIN (-16%), FAI (-12%) and GOAT (-18%)
- Top movers include BUZZ (+58%), GRIFT (+39%), AICMP (+27%), NEUR (+27%), ANON (+22%) and SPERG (+22%)
- CATG soars 10,000% to $24M in its debut; SWQUERY +4500% to $5.5M
- Illuvium announced it will utilize AI Agents via Virtuals Protocol to enhance its NPCs and provide smarter characters
- Abstract shared that it's working with some of the biggest AI teams to bring products to Abstract, having previously announced partnerships with Eliza and Holoworld
- AVA (Holoworld) announced its Holoworld Launchpool, with AVA stakers set to receive exclusive access to token distributions, boosted rewards, priority access to drops and more
- AICMP parent FSIC announced a strategic investment from ViaBTC Capital, the investment arm of the major Bitcoin mining company; they also announced a partnership with GPUaiRich for AI compute
- Alchemist (ALCH) introduced a new Pump Fun API allowing user integrations into their apps for token analysis, monitoring and more, along with new 3D generation capabilities
- REKT reaches 6th in AI mindshare just days after its Virtual Agent launch
- New AI meme LLM (Large Language Model) soars to $40M in its first few hours of trading
🌎 Macro Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- Crypto majors are very red this morning after a big dip; BTC -6% at $95,100, ETH -8% at $3,350, SOL -8% at $196, XRP -3% at $2.35; no alts in green
- A federal judge froze the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase, granting a pause until an appeals court could weigh in with respect to if the Howey test can be applied to crypto assets
- CFTC chair and crypto-skeptic Rostin Benham announced his resignation effective Jan 20 ahead of the Trump administration
- Ripple adopted the Chainlink standard for its Ripple USD stablecoin (RLUSD) to enhance its utility in DeFi applications
- Memecoin majors are red this morning mostly down 10-15%; DOGE -10%, SHIBA -9%, PEPE -10%, PENGU -12%, BONK -12%, WIF -9%, MOG -13%
- SPX was the lone green memecoin over $1B on the day, up 3% to $1.33B and clearly outperforming
- MLG soared to $150M in a 4x move yesterday before pulling back to $115M this morning
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