Morning Minute | Is The NFT Bull Market Back?

Morning Minute | Is The NFT Bull Market Back?

TylerD's Market Summary

Probably not, but it's at least time to pay attention again, after a weekend of big moves. Read on to find out what happened.

📈 Bullish NFT Market Action

Mega-whale sweeps. Bullish reveals. New mints doing 10x's.

These are all bull market happenings.

And they all happened this weekend.

So what's the verdict? Are we actually back?

What Happened

Here is a rundown of some of the biggest headlines from the weekend:

Sugartown had a bullish reveal event for Oras on Thursday

  • William Mapan Sketchbook A auctions ended with $10,777 min bid per NFT on Friday, raising $647k for the artist (and floor now at $13,500)
  • A new whale pumped ~200 ETH into Azuki and Elementals, leading to a major spike in both projects (+30% and +16% on the week)
  • New AI art project Nami did a 10x from mint after running from 0.05 ETH to 0.5 ETH on Saturday (though now back at 0.32)
  • Bull market vibes for sure, even if it's far too early to call it that.

XCOPY agrees, picking Friday to announce his newest mint ALGO BRO, which he described as "New contract, new format. same vibes. FRESH HELL."

A very eventful weekend indeed.

NFT Market Overview

Now for a quick look at broader price action.

Here is a quick rundown of the notable floors and their 7-day price changes:

  • Fidenza: 50 ETH (even)
  • CryptoPunks: 42.99 ETH (-4%)
  • Ringers: 27.5 ETH (-6%)
  • BAYC: 26.5 ETH (+6%)
  • Gazers: 13.88 ETH (+3%)
  • Grifters: 9.66 ETH (+14%)
  • Chromie Squiggle: 9 ETH (-2%)
  • Winds of Yawanawa: 9 ETH (-50%)
  • Azuki: 5.3 ETH (+30%)
  • Pudgy Penguins: 5.22 ETH (-4%)
  • MAYC: 5.08 ETH (+5%)
  • Captainz: 4.37 ETH (+27%)
  • PROOF: 3.7 ETH (+10%)
  • DeGods: 3.63 (+13%)
  • Otherside Koda: 3.04 ETH (+9%)
  • Milady: 1.88 ETH (+11%)

So it was an interesting week when you look at the broader picture.

The top of the leaderboard was even or down, with most of the big gains in the lower mid-tier PFP sector.

Azuki and Captainz the 2 clear winners on the week, up 30% and 27% respectively. Azuki pumped on the new whale sweep, and Captainz certainly benefitting from $MEME farming opening up.

The mid-tier rankings shook up quite a bit on the week, with Pengus falling to 4th (Azuki back in 3rd), and now a very tight pack with MAYC right there as well.

In the art market, Winds of Yawanawa did pull back after their meteoric rise last weekend, now back at 9 ETH and holding neck-and-neck with Squiggles. While Grifters shot up 14% to 9.66 ETH, flipping both.

So is the bull market back?

Of course it's too early to say that, but there are promising signs.

NFT trading volume is trending up, with both weekend days in the $8.6M-$9M range and Friday seeing $10.3M in volume.

For perspective, that's the single biggest day we've had since Aug 25.

Total weekly traders jumped 15% as well in a modest uptick.

Combine those two factors with all the bullish headlines above and the result is - it's time to start paying attention to the NFT market again...

👥 Friend Tech Trend Tracker

The Friend Tech market had a bloody weekend as sellers came out in force following some big name exits from the market, and a feisty new competitor is in up-only mode right now.

Here are some of the core Friend Tech metrics for 10/23 and their day-over-day change:

  • Return users: 3,486 -> 3,321 (-5%)
  • Daily Buy volume: $0.66M -> $0.71M (+7.5%) 
  • Total Volume: $1.95M -> $3.25M (+66%)
  • TVL: $44.17M -> $43.23 (-2%)
  • Highest key: Vombatus 8.33 -> 8.19 (-2%)

*TVL in ETH terms 26,440 -> 25,802 ETH (-2.5)

That trading volume on Sunday - $2.53M in sell volume vs just $710k in buys (the worst buy/sell ratio in quite some time).

The day started with Pranksy effectively selling off his bag to go play on New Bitcoin City, and a few other bigger 3,3ers seemed to follow later in the day.

Apparently the reward points from Friday weren't enough to keep them happy.

Speaking of, those FT Points come in ranging 50-100 per ETH pending on if one's inflows outweighed outflows or vice versa (closer to 50 if outflows > inflows and closer to 100 if inflows > outflows). The average seemed to come in 60-70 range, though it was harded to pinpoint as the team turned off the API.

In other SocialFI news:

  • StarsArena TVL fell 10% to $1.48M as the app experienced more indexing issues on Sunday; the team did announce its weekly points are coming today at X pm
  • New Bitcoin City TVL keeps grinding up, now at $2.57M and up ~150% on the week
  • Tomo TVL fell 20% on the weekend to $1.3M

It seems that New Bitcoin City is emerging as the primary competitor to Friend Tech in the SocialFI race, though today's Stars Arena points drop (and subsequent market action) could change that.

It's going to be an interesting week...

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • Trading volume came in at $8.4M (5,100 ETH) on Sunday, while the leaderboard was mostly green again
  • Viscosity and Chromatic Harmonies led top movers on the day, up 140% and 54% respectively
  • Art project Nami retraced to 0.32 ETH after soaring 10x from Friday to Saturday and passing a 0.5 ETH floor
  • Lower-tier PFPs are catching a rally as well, with Doodles +23% (1.45 ETH), Meebits +23% (1.15 ETH) and Moonbirds +16% (1.77 ETH) on the week
  • BAYC shared its official ApeFest event schedule on Friday, showing 6 days of events for its upcomign Hong Kong mega-party
  • Nike's .SWOOSH TinaJ shoes went live on Friday, exclusive for members

ğŸŒŽ Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • The crypto market rallied on Sunday; BTC +2.3% at $30,660; ETH +1.6% at $1,675; SOL +3.5% at $29.67
  • Worldcoin switched its orb rewards from using USDC to its native WLD tokens starting this Tuesday
  • Photo Finish parent company Third Time Entertainment completed a $2M Seed round, with leading support from investment firm Sfermion, to fund its Solana-based virtual horse racing game

🚀 NFT Total Volume

  • BAYC (2,537 ETH, 26.5 ETH Floor)
  • MAYC (1,009 ETH, 5.08 ETH)
  • Pudgy Penguins (467 ETH, 5.22 ETH)
  • DeGods (526 ETH, 3.63 ETH)
  • Azuki (169 ETH, 5.44 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase

  • Viscosity by Mart Biemans (140%, 0.07 ETH Floor)
  • Chromatic Harmonies (54%, 0.3 ETH)
  • 0n1 Force (43%, 1.05 ETH)
  • Jerks (41%, 0.13 ETH)
  • mfers (20%, 0.63 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is a busier Monday with drops spanning art, memes, Reddit and games.

The highlight may be Melissa Weiderrecht's Art Blocks reGEN mint "Bakhoor Assandal," an edition of 200 minting in the standard Dutch auction format.

Then this evening, Reddit is back with NBA Avatars.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor

  • Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
  • Anthony - STORM (11:00 a.m. ET)
  • Art Blocks reGEN - "Bakhoor Assandal" (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • Reddit x NBA - Player Avatars (6:00 p.m. ET)
  • Pixelmon - Kevin the Adventurer (6:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.

Disclaimer: The author or members of the Lucky Trader staff may own NFTs discussed in this post. Furthermore, the information contained on this website or the Lucky Trader mobile application is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as financial advice. AI may have assisted in the creation of this content.