Morning Minute | Polymarket's $50M Trump Whale Reveals Method

TylerD's Market Summary

🤯 Mysterious French Polymarket Whale Reveals Method

Many have called Polymarket the biggest winner of this election cycle, after they were heavier Trump than most polls.

Well if that's the case, then the single biggest winner must be "Theo" - the french whale who is set to profit nearly $50M from his Trump bets.

And yesterday he revealed his unique and brilliant method which helped drive his conclusion.

What Happened?

To set the foundation, Théo is a wealthy French trader who bet over $30M on Trump’s election victory on Polymarket.

He targeted the general election bet, popular vote and several key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

And in an interview with the Wall St Journal yesterday, he revealed his method.

Instead of relying on traditional polls, Théo ran his own polls (through a partner) focused on a polling discrepancy he calls the “shy Trump voter effect.”

To improve his predictions, he used "neighbor polls," where respondents predict how their neighbors will vote instead of how they plan to vote themselves.

His core thesis was that this method would indirectly reveal who that individual was likely voting for and bring out more "honest" responses.

And when reviewing the results from this Neighbor polling method compared to the traditional polls, he saw that Harris was lagging by several points than what most realized.

What They're Saying

Théo shared that his bets were rooted in skepticism about mainstream U.S. polls, which he believed were biased toward Democrats.

“In France this is different!! The pollster credibility is more important: they want to be as close as possible to the actual results,” he said, contrasting U.S. and French polling standards.

Citing his own analysis of RealClearPolitics polling data, he argued U.S. polls consistently underestimated Trump’s support:

“Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect."

Why It Matters

There are a lot of lessons and takeaways from our new friend Theo.

For one, he has totally exposed our current polling industry, which is effectively worthless at predicting election winners.

I imagine his Neighbor method will be used more widely next time around.

Another key lesson here is a reminder in the power of deep conviction bets.

Theo clearly put in the leg work and analysis to come up with a conclusion different than mainstream which he had deep belief in - and it was wildly profitable for him.

Opportunities like this exist in crypto and other markets as well. We all just have to do the work to find them, and hold long enough for the conviction to pay off.

Hats off to Theo - the bettor of the year...

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Ethereum led NFT trading volume with $4.8M on the day; Bitcoin was next with $2.2M, and then Solana with $1.5M
• ETH NFT leaders were mostly green along side the ETH pump; Punks even at 25.5 ETH, Pudgy +5% at 8.4, BAYC -1% at 11.1, Milady -3% at 4.6, Azuki +4% at 4.95
• Synthetic Dreams (+110%) and Mog Auras (+50%) led notable top movers
• BTC NFT leaders were mixed; NodeMonkes -3% at 0.125 BTC, Puppets +6% at 0.141 BTC, OMB -1% at 0.156, Quantum Cats -2% at 0.22
• The Runes leaders were mostly red; DOG -6% at $415M mc, PUPS +6% at $217M, GIZMO -5% at $20M mc, BDC even at $86M
• Magic Eden introduced a new global currency $G3 allowing users to buy and mint NFTs with any supported EVM currency

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are green led by ETH; BTC +1% at $75,000; ETH +6% at $2,810, SOL even at $187; RAY (+23%), Ethena (+20%), LDO and AAVE +15%
• Memecoin majors are mixed ; DOGE -6%, SHIBA -2%, PEPE +9%, WIF -3%, POPCAT -5%, and MOG -1%
• Ethena's ENA token jumped 20% after a Wintermute proposal to turn on a fee switch and distribute revenue to holders
• Coinbase stock soared 30% on Tuesday to $254 and a $64B market cap
• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $621M in net inflows on a very high $6B volume day following the election, while the ETH ETFs saw $52M in net inflows 
• JP Morgan has rebranded its blockchain platform to Kinexys, which will allow forex services along with onchain privacy, cross-border transactions and more
• Hawk Tuah girl Hailey Welch alluded to an upcoming memecoin drop on her X page on Wednesday
• Epik Duck partnered with Play Solana to roll out branded handheld consoles, including an $EPIK airdrop for first 3,000 units sold
• The French whale who made $40M+ on Polymarket revealed his method which included a unique "neighbor polling" method which gave him information that Trump had a bigger lead than people thought

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $SMR (+24,000% to $19M market cap, SOL)
• $RETIRE (+171% to $14M market cap, SOL)
• $LUCE (+59% to $55M market cap, SOL)
• $MOODENG (+27% to $233M market cap, SOL)
• $NEIRO (+28% to $110M market cap, ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Synthetic Dreams (111%, 1.73 ETH Floor)
• TGLP Genesis (80%, 0.99 ETH floor)
• The Undead (74%, 0.12 ETH)
• Mog Auras (50%, 0.29 ETH)
• Mounts of Seedworld (41%, 0.4 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a busier day of mints spanning PFPs and art.

Highlights include Rich Caldwell dropping with Transient Labs, Trevor Paglen with Fellowship and then Mintify dropping its ApeChain keys.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Bitmen (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Mintifi ApeChain Keys (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Trevor Paglen X Fellowship (1:00 p.m. ET)
• Rich Caldwell x Transient Labs - Canvas (5:30 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.d.warner@gmail.com.