Morning Minute | The Bull Market Has Begun

TylerD's Market Summary

🚀 $100k Bitcoin in 2024?

Monday November 11, 2024, was one for the crypto history books.

Maybe we'll call it "Green Monday" or the "Golden Monday" - I'm still not sure (need to workshop the name).

But one thing is certain. We will not forget the day the golden bull market officially began.

And a core piece of U.S. legislation that was drafted on this day.

What Happened?

Bitcoin printed the single biggest daily candle in its entire 14 year history on Monday.

It jumped more than 10% from $80,000 to $89,000 (nearing $90k at peak), settling this morning at $87,500.

The move came on the back of massive ETF inflows, reaching $1.1B in total on the day driven by $756M from IBIT alone.

That brings Bitcoin to a $1.73T market cap and broader crypto up to $2.93T.

Now all eyes are focused on the magical target of $100k Bitcoin, though Polymarket has the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100k in 2024 at just 60% right now (feels a bit low for a 15% move from here).

What could take it there?

Well Senator Cynthia Lummis is doing her part to help.

Yesterday she officially drafted the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill which would have the U.S. government buy 200,000 Bitcoin per year for 5 years in a row to accumulate 1M Bitcoin by 2030.

That bill, if it even comes close to being passed, would move markets significantly. Nation states would race to buy Bitcoin, along with major companies.

None of us are bullish enough.

Market Impact

It wasn't just Bitcoin that saw ETF inflows.

ETH had its own record-breaking day with $296M in net inflows, nearly triple its previous ATH. That brings the ETH overall ETF outflows down to $28.7M - meaning they may finally flip net positive as soon as today.

That will be a huge milestone for the ETH maxis out there - the institutions are finally coming for your ETH.

But the biggest winner of the which felt the biggest impact of the Bitcoin move was DOGE.

The leading memecoin soared another 37% to $0.40 and $59B in market cap, now up 133% on the week.

Other meme leaders were a bit more mixed on the day, though most were green.

Bitcoin-related stocks pumped on the move:

• MicroStrategy +25% to $340 ($69B mc) and a new 24-year high
• Coinbase +20% to $324 ($81B mc) and just 5% off its ATH

The Bitcoin NFT ecosystem felt the pump as well, with the leading Ordinals all jumping 10-20% led by Bitcoin Puppets now at 0.23 BTC.

Why It Matters

Retail is about to capitulate into Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem.

Monday was the signal.

The $725B asset manager Bernstein told investors to buy Bitcoin and crypto "as soon as possible."

And the price going higher is reflexive. It's a feedback loop. The higher the price, the safer it seems (also the Lindy effect).

It becomes even safer at $100k.

And as a reminder, when mainstream buys, they hold for years with a conscious eye on capital gains taxes. These aren't your degen memecoin trader looking for a 15% scalp and moving on.

Higher, for longer.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT volume soared by nearly 100% with Ethereum leading NFT trading volume with $12.5M on the day; Bitcoin was next with $8.7M, and then Solana with $5M
• ETH NFT leaders were green led by Punks; Punks +10% at 29 ETH, Pudgy +4% at 9.35 ETH, BAYC +6% at 11.4
• Lasogette (+70%), Doodles (+26%) and Project Aeon (+26%) led notable top movers
• CryptoPunks saw 35 sales in their biggest day in weeks with the floor reaching 29 ETH
• BTC NFT leaders were very green; Bitcoin Puppets +25% at 0.227 BTC, NodeMonkes +8% at 0.158 BTC, OMB +9% at 0.159, Quantum Cats +8% at 0.216; Bitcoin Frogs (+49%) and Based Angels (+60%) were top movers
• The Runes leaders were mixed led by GIZMO; DOG -9% at $403M mc, PUPS +3% at $290M, GIZMO +40% at $55M mc, BDC -5% at $123M
• Zereborn NFTs launched on Solana, minting for 0.1 SOL and running to 1.5 SOL at peak before retracing to 0.7
• Blur had a governance proposal submitted to turn a $BLUR fee switch on
• A FWOG NFT from The Pond collection sold for 259 SOL ($57,000)

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are mostly green led by Bitcoin; BTC +5% at $87,000 (hit close to $90k overnight); ETH +2% at $3,240, SOL -4% at $208; WLD (+8%) and RENDER (+8%) were notable alt movers
• Memecoin majors are mostly green following DOGE; DOGE +30%, SHIBA even, PEPE +4%, WIF -6%, POPCAT -7%, and BONK +14%
• The odds of Bitcoin hitting $100k in 2024 hit a new high of 63% on Polymarket
• MicroStrategy stock hit a 24-year high on the back of the Bitcoin surge at $340
• Coinbase stock soared to $324, now up 75% since Trump was elected
• The Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1.1B on Monday and ETH saw $295M (new ATH)
• "ETH 3.0" is rumored to be announced this week, with the newest update focused on reducing block time and integrating native zkEVM
• $2B in USDT was minted on Ethereum on Monday
• Spirit Blockchain Capital is aiming to be the MicroStrategy of Dogecoin according to CEO Lewis Bateman with its stock soaring 120% over the past week along with the rise of Dogecoin
• FTX sued Binance for $1.76B tied to fraudulent fund transfers in a deal to buy Binance's equity stake

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $MIST (+16,000% to $20M market cap, SOL)
• $HAPPY (+69% to $84M market cap, SOL)
• $FRED (+60% to $20M market cap, SOL)
• $BAN (+47% to $80M market cap, SOL)
• $LUCE (+40% to $125M market cap, SOL)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Consortium Key (122%, 0.28 ETH Floor)
• Final Forms (100%, 0.16 ETH floor)
• Lasogette (70%, 0.2 ETH)
• Cryptoadz (29%, 0.42 ETH)
• Doodles (25%, 1.68 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a busier day of mints, spanning art, PFPs and mint passes across chains, though without major highlights.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Sh/apes (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Chimpers - Diamond Fleece Mint Pass (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Arcades(12:00 p.m. ET)
• Rare Scrilla x Kane Mayfield - 42069 (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Paul Prudence x Verse (1:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.d.warner@gmail.com.