NFT Roundtable | Grails Go Brrrrr
Welcome to the Weekly NFT Roundtable, where members of the Lucky Trader team weigh in on some of the most pressing questions, news, and events in the web3 space.
The commentary below is purely opinion —not financial advice!
Recommended Reading:
- Winged Helmet Airdrop Completed for Team Galacia
- The Burn Wars Begin | Gremlin Fuels Nakamigo Fire
- Azuki Grails Change Hands
- Your Guide to NFT NYC Events
Hoarding Helmets šŖ
Question 1: Yuga Labs airdropped the winged helmet cosmetic to Team Galacia this weekend, the winners of the Otherside second trip game. The first relic is currently holding above a .5 ETH floor, seeing much stronger price action than your average cosmetic airdrop.
Are you buying or selling this item as having long-term significance, and what are your thoughts on the ecosystem/reward structure going forward?
Tyler: I’ve done a 180 on this one. At first, I thought it was silly and would’ve instantly sold (in fact I encouraged Ghost to race to sell his). But now seeing the narrative shape around this being the first in-game asset from The Otherside and realizing that the supply is 2,218, I’m coming around a bit. If you’re bullish on The Otherside succeeding, this seems like a great way to bet on that outcome in the lowest supply collection in existence in The Otherside ecosystem. The low supply is a huge factor for me here.
As future rewards are given out, I’ll likely be a bit less bullish on them (pending coolness and assuming greater supply) - but we’ll see.
Jason: I’m torn here. It’s the first, as Tyler mentioned, but the supply is actually quite high for an in-game wearable. If The Otherside succeeds, certain in-game items are going to carry high values (see Fortnite and CSGO skins), but even though this is the first in-game wearable available to players, with a 2,000+ supply, the price can’t get that high. I’m probably selling at 0.5 ETH. If the supply was in the single digits, it would be a different story.
Logie: Maybe my brain is warped from a year in NFTs, but a 2,000-piece supply doesn’t feel all that large to me, so I’ll disagree with Jason here. I think this is the type of piece that “represents” the beginnings of the Otherside Metaverse. It feels very much like a limited edition or unique collectible you’d receive in real life. You know, like a ticket from Taylor Swift’s first concert or something. I can definitely get behind this having value in the future, should Yuga actually make something of the Otherside. With that being said, I’m passing on buying at 0.5. Maybe chuck in a wETH offer for some bored user?
Ghost: Egg on my face, as someone who was airdropped the Winged Helmet and sold it immediately thinking this would go the same route as a lot of other cosmetic rewards we’ve seen in the past. If you are bullish on the Otherside succeeding, I’d say the first ‘relic’ in the collection will have some value - and with only around 2,000, will likely be one of the lower supply items out there as the platform grows. I’m not a big fan of cosmetics, but there are plenty of people that are (see CSGO, Runescape, etc.) — and the narrative of this should be strong enough to have long-term value. Trying not to FOMO back in higher.
I also think it’s an awesome proof-of-concept for these type of rewards — I played a demo for an hour and got rewarded with almost $1,000 in value. Pretty awesome, and I think stuff like this will help the idea click with normies eventually.
Feel the Burn š„
Question 2: This weekend saw notable artist Gremplin release a limited edition piece called“Fry Harvesters”, which required collectors to burn a Nakamigo to earn the art. The collection sold out, with 69 Nakamigos burned and the floor of the Gremplin piece spiking before settling around the floor of Nakas. What do you think of PvP burning-type mechanisms? Is this something we’ll be seeing more of?
Tyler: I’m a big fan of burn to redeem. It’s going to add a lot of spice to the NFT ecosystem, especially in the PFP sector, which we desperately need to get us through this bear market. Nakamonkeys vs NakaApes - who can get minters to burn more of the other collection? Cool Pets vs Gutter Cat Clones in a PvP burn battle. There are just endless ways to play this, and at least one founder in GFunk is ready to throw his collection (Pixel Vault) into the mix. I’m here for it.
Jason: Adding burn-to-redeem mechanics to a collection adds fun game theory, and the cool part is... the project doesn’t even have to participate. It doesn’t matter if the Nakamigos founders “approved” the Gremplin burn for “Fry Harvesters.” It’s an interesting way to lower the supply of a large collection in a bear market and create hype for a new, “free” low-count collection. Now we wait to see if the decoupling between these two projects ever happens.
Logie: I’m all for this and fully expect it to be prominently featured in fun and interesting ways moving forward. Until recent months, I think the narrative around a “burn” was…”whoops, someone messed up.” Now though, people have flipped the script and burns are almost as prominent as mints.
Ghost: I thought it was very interesting, and have no doubt we’ll see more of these PvP burn wars between projects in the future. As Jason mentioned, I also like the idea of lowering the supply without the project having to even participate directly. For a 20k supply collection like Nakamigos (that many would at first glance think is a high supply), maybe burns like what Gremplin did can slowly reduce supply while engaging the community and providing interesting narratives for holders. It’s also a great testament to Manifold, who has made it really easy for artists and projects to experiment with this type of stuff in a simple way.
NFT NYC Predictions š½
Question 3: NFT NYC is this week! For past major conferences in the space, several projects have capitalized on the IRL attention with major announcements, airdrops, or notable events. Which project do you think has the best chance of capturing the attention of the space over the next few days?
Tyler: I have 2 bets to make here - DeGods and Nakamigos. I think Frank is the heavy favorite to make a splash at NFT NYC, and the market is anticipating something big as well given recent price action (a surge back to 10 ETH). An airdrop is likely coming - but what will it be? And will those DeGods parties be ragers?
The underdog bet here is Nakamigos, and there are two ways to win: 1) the founders make a surprise announcement during the event (odds: 20%) or 2) the community rallies and pulls off something big, either great party(ies) or some guerrilla marketing (odds: 80%). These are the main two I’m watching, with Pudgy Penguins being my longshot.
Jason: I think it’s mostly irrelevant who captures attention over the next few days. NFT NYC rarely leads to a sustained price rally for projects. We’ve seen some success with Doodles, Cool Cats, and others. I think Tyler is right with DeGods being the front-runner, but since most people think that, the execution risk is higher. The biggest winner will be some small project that no one is expecting that does something fun and cool. I don’t even have a guess as to which project that is, though. I’ll let Tyler tell me, as he’s there.
Logie: I agree with Tyler’s first suggestion…I think DeLabs is the best bet to make a big move this week. Whether or not that big announcement will be received well or is the right move, well that’s a different story. The demographic of DeGods and y00ts holders seems ripe to celebrate and wrap energy around a IRL announcement. I’d put money on Frank doing something this week.
Ghost: Agree with all the takes above, Frank is a master of attention and has been teasing “going dark” until NFT NYC — so I’d think an announcement is imminent. I also agree with the potential for Nakamigos — this is the first major event for holders to show out, and I have no doubt we’ll see a lot of community-led events or attention-grabbing posts. Maybe that Naka vibe will translate to the broader space as well, as the project’s sentiment shifts from disbelief to optimism.
Grails Go Brrrrr š°
Question 4: The top-tier of the Azuki collection continues to see major action, with several 150+ ETH sales this weekend. And while most other PFP collections have continued to fall, Azuki has held steady at over a 14 ETH floor. Has the project solidified itself as the top PFP in the space outside of Yuga (Punks & Apes)? Where do you see it going from here?
Tyler: Azuki is showing the power a group of whales can have on a PFP collection. The relentless buying of the Spirits and grails, not to mention that epic Gold Skateboard auction from a few months back, cannot be ignored. The whale strength alone is enough to inspire confidence in the holders that Azuki won’t go the way of the rest of the mid-tiers in the near future.
With that said, I don’t see a quick path for Azuki to level up to the 20+ ETH level in the near future or return to ATH without something significant from the team. So I think the most likely outcome is Azuki trading in a tight-ish band around current levels until a significant catalyst comes or the entire market catches some new bids/blood.
Logie: Captainz are going to make a real fight for this spot, but I think Azuki is firmly in place at No. 3 for the time being. Just something about the project that has allowed it to push through all the founder FUD and blossom into a consistently valued project. The simplicity of the Azuki ecosystem has definitely helped, imo.
Ghost: As an early Azuki holder who sold during the Zagabond drama, I never thought the project would fully recover from that. Egg on my face again, as Azuki looks to be the strongest non-Yuga PFP project in the space, and probably has the highest rarity/aesthetic premium out there.
I’m happy for the Azuki community — each individual project’s success is good for the entire space. In terms of where they go from here, my guess is a continued slow grind-up. People love the art, and it has become the go-to PFP in the space outside of Punks/Apes. That, in addition to support from massive whales, insulates the project from serious downside, at least in the near term.
Meet the Roundtable:
Ghost: Ghost is an NFT analyst at Lucky Trader. He has been in crypto since 2017, and entered the NFT space via NBA Top Shot in January of 2021 before minting Bored Apes and degenning into the broader market.
Tyler: Tyler is a high-volume NFT trader, having reached the top 100 in NFT sales revenue using NFTBank’s rankings, a Pengu maxi (in Luca we trust), and a writer for Lucky Trader. Tyler’s writing spans market analysis, news breakdowns, project ecosystem overviews, and Web3 opinion pieces.
Logie: Logan is a content lead at Lucky Trader and is best known for selling every good NFT far too early. He also maintains an irrational exuberance for clay-based NFTs.
Jason: Jason is an NFT lead at Lucky Trader. He has been involved in the NFT space since CryptoKitties in late 2017, and, like most, he lost a lot of money on Top Shot in early 2021. But nevertheless, he persists (with his Series 1 Legendary From The Top LeBron James Block).
