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THIS IS IT! DraftKings will drop its NFL Reignmakers Holiday Set, which awards users cards needed to compete for a top prize of $1 million. The contest will take place on Thanksgiving and offers a total of $2 million in prizes. 

In this article, we will delve into the contents of the upcoming holiday packs, exploring the various opportunities they present for yielding rewards, including the enticing chance at winning $1 million. The breakdown will encompass details such as the pack's cost, ongoing promotions, and other essential information necessary to embark on the journey toward that coveted $1,000,000 prize.

Make sure to stay tuned daily until Thanksgiving for more targeted content related to this contest. This will include an exact card estimator for each card in the holiday set, as well as a tool takeover showcasing the holiday value metrics tool and the contest lineup value predictor.

Holiday Pack Details: Pack Distribution

First, let's talk about the highlights from the pack, dropping for a price of $129.99 and have the following distribution:

  • TWO Holiday Set Feast Cards (RARE Tier)
  • ONE RARE Tier Air It Out Set Card
  • ONE Holiday Set Flurry Card or ELITE+ Air It Out Set Card
  • ONE CORE Air It Out Set Card

Next is the average results per pack by rarity tier, it is as follows: 

  • CORE: 1.000 cards per pack*
  • RARE: 3.777 cards per pack*
    • RARE Holiday Feast: 2.000 per pack*
    • RARE Holiday Flurry: 0.777 per pack*
    • RARE Air It Out: 1.000 per pack*
  • ELITE: 0.190 cards per pack*
  • LEGENDARY: 0.029 cards per pack*
  • REIGNMAKER: 0.004 cards per pack*

*Average Results Per Pack by Rarity Tier rounded to the third decimal

A lot is going on here...But don't worry. Let's simplify the key details of each holiday pack. In each pack, you will receive two RARE Holiday Feast cards. These Feast cards hold a unique significance as they are the only cards eligible for the Millionaire Maker contest on Thanksgiving.

The lineup structure for this contest follows the classic Reignmakers format. It includes one quarterback, running back, wide receiver, wide receiver or tight end, and flex position that can feature either a kicker or a defender.

It's essential to note that in the event of identical lineups, the total serial number of the lineup will serve as a tiebreaker, with the lowest combined serial number emerging as the winner.

Distribution of lineup:

  • QB
  • RB
  • WR
  • WR/TE
  • Flex (K,DST,WR,RB,TE)

Now, let's explore the lineup possibilities. There are a total of 7,200 quarterbacks in these packs, with an additional 800 available for the craft and burn recipe. On average, there's approximately one quarterback for every five-holiday packs (3,600/7,200). However, it's important to note that the distribution is random, meaning there's no guarantee of getting a full lineup or a quarterback in a set of five packs.

Considering you receive two Holiday Feast cards per pack and given an average distribution, one would likely need to purchase five packs to assemble a lineup for the Millionaire Maker contest. This considers the variance in obtaining the necessary cards, especially quarterbacks, for entry.

Certainly, these holiday packs offer more than just cards for the Millionaire Maker contest. Each pack includes either 1 ELITE+ or better AIR IT OUT card or 1 RARE Flurry card. The Flurry cards grant entry into a Christmas contest with a top prize of $100,000 and a total prize pool of $400,000. Additionally, the pack contains 1 RARE and 1 CORE AIR IT OUT card, both playable in the regular weekly contests throughout the rest of the year.

Holiday Pack Details: Deep Dive Analysis on EV

Now, let's analyze the expected value (EV) of the pack. Taking into account all the components, we have $2.4 million in prizes for the two holiday contests, along with the distribution of other cards in the pack. This breakdown gives us a comprehensive view of the EV across the different segments of the pack drop.

Holiday Cards: $2,700,000 ($2.4 million for the holiday contests and $300K for rest of season utility)
AIR IT OUT Cards: $2,300,000

Total: $5,000,000

Number of Packs: 31,659

Total Estimated Value Per Pack: $160.00 (rounded)

With a purchase price of $129.99, plus two different promotions where if you buy three packs you get $50 in DK credit, and if you buy 30 you get a $555 DFS Millionaire Maker ticket a user could bring down the average cost to around $109.82.

When doing so, that creates almost $50 of positive EV, and a chance at $1,000,000!

Holiday Pack Details: Range of Outcomes

Lastly, we’ll dive slightly in the player pool and talk about the range of outcomes these packs COULD see. Here’s the worst pack distribution one could receive from these packs:

Card #1 “Feast"Jake Moody (Kicker) $10 value

Card #2 “Feast" Anders Carlson (Kicker) $10 Value

Card #3 “AIR IT OUT" ELITE Minkah Fitzpatrick $15 Value

Card # 4 "AIR IT OUT" RARE Any Defense: $2 Value

Card #5: "AIR IT OUT" CORE Any defense: $0.25 value

Total Value: $37.25

Just for transparency purposes, let's talk about one of the best:

Card #1 “Feast” Dak Prescott No. 1 Serial (QB) $7,500 estimated value

Card #2 “Feast" Christian McCaffery No. 1 Serial (RB) $7,500 estimated value

Card #3 “AIR IT OUT" REIGNMAKER Justin Jefferson (WR) $5,000 estimated value

Card #4 “AIR IT OUT" RARE Puka Nacua (WR) ($50) estimated value

Card #5 “AIR IT OUT” CORE CeeDee Lamb (WR) ($15) estimated value

Total Value: $20,065

OK, that’s all for now! We are thrilled and excited to bring you the best and most in-depth coverage in the Reignmaker community. Be sure to check out all of our offerings by clicking here.

Make sure to check out all the available players here.

Did you get your free Reignmakers pack yet? Learn more in our guide.

Disclaimer: The author or members of the Lucky Trader staff may own NFTs discussed in this post. Furthermore, the information contained on this website or the Lucky Trader mobile application is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as financial advice. AI may have assisted in the creation of this content.