DraftKings Reignmakers | Week 5 Contest Selection Strategy Recap
This week’s DraftKings Reignmakers fantasy football contest selection strategy recap breaks down how entry counts and contest selection played out for Week 5.
We are going to discuss what changed in Week 5 and look at how the deep roster vs main slate game theory played out this week. Additionally, I'll tell you which are the best contests to efficiently utilize low-value cards.
Week 4 vs. Week 5 Recap
The main takeaway from Week 5 contests is that contest entry counts went up in pretty much across the board in all rarity tiers as Reignmakers continues to grow. The entry counts were up by roughly five percent and thus lowering the contest's EV compared to Week 4.
It’s worth noting that the Featured Star Contests this week were better valued than the same contests in Week 4 even though they had significantly more entries. This was due to the featured star prizes this week (Carr, Evans, Fournette) being so much more valuable than last week's (Dionte, Breece, Connor).
Deep Roster vs Main Slate Recap
The overarching theme with the deep roster vs Sunday main slate contests is that the four more cards required for the Deep Roster are not worth it for most contests. In some cases, however, it is worth it. Here, I break down Reignmakers Week 5 contest selection for each rarity tier.
Core again saw the main slate Sunday contests provide better value than the full slate deep roster contests.
The Core (Sunday Main) $15K Single Entry stood out as the best value contest with EV being roughly 9.3 percent of lineup cost.
The Rare tier in Week 4 was the outlier where the full slate deep roster contests actually provided more value than the Sunday main slate. Week 5 was no different, however, we did see the field catch on a bit and close the gap in EV between the rare deep roster and main slate contests.
The Rare $30K (Deep Roster) Fiat Frenzy was the top value contest overall with EV being roughly 10.4 percent of lineup cost.
Like the rest of the rarity tiers except rare, Elite also saw its Sunday main slate contests provide more value.
The Elite (Sunday Main) $250K Fiat Frenzy was the best value contest with EV being roughly 7.9 percent of the lineup cost.
When it comes to the Single Entry and Fiat Frenzy tournament contests in the Legendary and Reignmaker tiers, the Sunday Main slate is still a better value.
One contest outlier worth noting is the Legendary (Sunday Main) $100K Fiat Frenzy actually saw a six percent drop in entries this week. This contest was one of the lowest “bang for your buck” contests in Reignmakers in Week 4 with EV being roughly 4.5 percent of the lineup cost. The drop in entries in Week 5 shows some people are taking notice of this.
Utilizing Low-Value Cards in Deep Roster Contests
One thing some of the Deep Roster contests offer is very high odds to hit the minimum cash prize. The Core (Deep Roster) $20K Fiat Frenzy, Core (Deep Roster) $5K Bankroll Booster, and Rare (Deep Roster) $30K Fiat Frenzy offer the highest odds across the Full and Main slates with odds of 71-73 percent to cash in these contests in Week 5. No multi-entry main slate contest has anywhere close to this high of odds to hit minimum cash.
Knowing this, I enter my cards with the lowest fantasy point projections into these contests in hopes to get just enough to win the minimum cash prize. This is a much more efficient use for these “junk” cards than letting them go to waste in a contest where there are much lower odds of cashing. You can even utilize cards of injured players in these lineups as you can still hit minimum cash while getting 0’s from one or multiple players in your lineup.
Looking Ahead: Week 6
Week 6 contests are set up the same as Week 5 in terms of payout structure and total cash prizes. This week will be different with it being the first week of byes and there also is no Sunday morning London game slate. While the bye weeks may shake up secondary card prices a bit, I don't foresee me changing up my contest selection strategy.
I will compare Week 6 entry counts to Week 5 to decide which contests I will enter. For now, I'll be assuming the best contests for Week 5 discussed above will also be the best for Week 6.