DraftKings Diary | Buys, Sells, and What to Look for on DraftKings Reignmakers for Week 13
In the DraftKings Diary, each week Lucky Trader's Jason Rouslin will walk through his buys, sells, and team lookahead to give you insights from an experienced DraftKings Reignmakers player.
Check out Jason's full portfolio with the Lucky Trader Reignmakers Portfolio Tool.
Week 13! Down to the final third of the regular season of the NFL schedule as the inaugural DraftKings Reignmaker season rolls on. Last week saw the first Reignmakers Millionaire Maker contest, providing yet another thrilling wrinkle in this evolving game. It was won by a lineup that was duplicated only five times, requiring a tiebreaker to select the new millionaire.
As we look forward to the final six weeks of the regular season, the game will inevitably become harder, and the liquidity in the marketplace will be very condensed. That may create a few bubbles in terms of pricing and could provide a few opportunities to get players on the cheap for the rest of the year. I'll go into more detail about that and preview the pivotal Week 13 slate.
Week 12 Diary
If you missed last week's article, where I discussed my strategy up to this point in the season, check it out here. Interested in seeing what makes up the 1,400+ NFT card collection? Check it out here!
Week 12 Top Lineup Strategy/Tier & Contest
Contest: ELITE | Thanksgiving Slate, $60K Fiat Frenzy, $10K to First
Lineup:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
- WR: Stefon Diggs
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Flex: Dalvin Cook
Total Points: 113.32, 27th place
The first slate of the week was the one I was most excited about. Beyond the possibility of winning one million dollars, I’d been investing in St. Brown and Stevenson since very early on in the season. Given that the other four teams around them are all in the playoff picture, they also played a critical role in my portfolio building. My portfolio was able to build three ELITE lineups, with the top one finishing in 27th in the Thanksgiving ELITE contest.
Entering the final game of the slate, I needed a combined 43 points from Cook and Stevenson to win the contest, barring a huge ceiling game from Justin Jefferson. While he played well, I still would have won had Cook and Stevenson scored 15 more than they did. On the Millionaire Maker front, it was a less than appealing effort, as fading St. Brown, Allen and Diggs did not prove to be a profitable one.
The main slate started in a positive way. I have more than 11 Garrett Wilson cards and that created a great start after he scored the first touchdown of the day. But since his play hadn't been strong of late, unfortunately, he was only on a Deep Roster team.
Nevertheless, that disappointment was quickly reversed, as Chris Godwin added an early touchdown. Plus, a quick start from Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle created promise for that lineup and the slate. But then Miami pulled its starters and Tua finished one yard shy of 300 passing yards. It was a brutal beat for a lineup that had Austin Ekeler and Kenneth Walker still to come.
On top of that, Travis Etienne’s early injury completely derailed another team, and some switching was necessary to try and earn as much yield as possible. Those switches at least led to my second straight top-20 finish in the Deep Roster contest, as moving Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams from the main slate lineup with Etienne to this Deep Roster helped earn 62 points, 40 more than the players they replaced.
Next up was the Sunday night game featuring Philly and Green Bay. I was fairly confident in this slate given the makeup of my portfolio. But, choosing DeVonta Smith over Miles Sanders was costly, as the lineup with Sanders didn’t even cash, while my main lineup came in 92nd. Had I gone Sanders over Smith in the main lineup, I would have come in 9th with the third-best combined tie-breaker. Could of, should have, would have, was definitely the theme of Week 12.
Lastly, the Monday night game was always going to be a bit of a dud for my portfolio, as I’ve tried to add pieces to the portfolio with players that have a chance at making the playoffs. Neither of the teams competing had much of a chance to make the playoffs, so in a way, it’s refreshing to see that strategy pay off, and predictions turn out correct. Still, it did break the streak of entering an ELITE lineup in every slate since the Sunday night game in Week 4!
Overall the slate yielded just shy of $2,500, which is just north of a 12 percent ROI for the week.
Week 12 Buys & Sells
This week’s most significant sale occurred right at the start, as I decided to move on from the Flannel CeeDee Lamb LEGENDARY I pulled in a pack. In return for that, I received a package of players, cash and equity in the lineup that Lamb went into. One of the cards included was a Rhamondre Stevenson ELITE that I had been chasing for a while. With an injury to Damien Harris, as well as Stenveson’s continued production, it was a great add, bolstering an already strong position in my portfolio. Now, it means my portfolio holds three of the best non-SuperStar running backs Dalvin Cook, Stevenson, and Aaron Jones.
Another addition to the portfolio, and maybe too quickly, was Myles Gaskin. His ELITE cards were priced around $20 when Jeff Wilson Jr. went down with an ankle injury late in the first half of the Miami game. But, given his production with Tua last year in a similar role and part of one of the best offenses in the game, I felt like it was a well-calculated risk, especially given the price. If Wilson is set to miss time, and Raheem Mostert isn’t able to get healthy, Gaskin’s ELITE prices will be easily over $100 and potentially higher if both backfield mates are set to miss significant time.
Lastly, while another tough loss to a team with a losing record happened, the offense of Tampa Bay is certainly better now that Julio Jones is back and looks healthy. So, with that, I added some Tom Brady who seemed cheap heading into the final third of the season. The only thing missing in that offense now is for him and Mike Evans to get on the same page.
Week 13 Lookahead
Week 13 has four notable Reignmakers slates:
- Slate #1: Buffalo vs. New England
- Slate #2: Main Slate
- Slate #3: Dallas vs. Indianapolis
- Slate #4: Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
Week 13 Targets
Week 13 starts with a fun divisional game between New England and Buffalo. Buffalo has played a few tough games in a row, narrowly escaping with a win in each of the games, despite Josh Allen not looking his best. My portfolio has a solid foundation of cards in this game from CORE through ELITE. Mac Jones showed substantial growth last week against a very good Minnesota team and, barring a reversed touchdown, did enough to earn a victory. He’ll be asked to do that again this week, as a win would put them on very solid footing for a playoff spot heading into the last five games of the season. Jones will be the number one option for my portfolio if there is a need to add cards for this slate.
Week 13 also provides the largest main slate in the last month or so, with 12 games being played on Sunday afternoon. There are some stellar matchups this week including:
- San Francisco vs. Miami
- Philadelphia vs. Tennessee
- Cincinnati vs. Kansas City
- Minnesota vs. New York Jets
All four of these games feature teams that are currently in a position to make the playoffs and should provide high-quality football. However, one game that should catch the eye of folks outside of these is Jacksonville and Detroit. Both teams are better than their records suggest, having won or put in excellent efforts against some of the best teams in football. If you're looking to add players from this game, Trevor Lawerence falls into the same category I discussed with Mac Jones, making considerable strides in his previous game. He should be able to carry momentum into Week 13.
Deshaun Watson returns to the lineup this week and will play in Houston for his first game back after suspension. Adding to it, Cleveland’s big win last week against Tampa Bay puts them in a similar position to Jacksonville, as discussed above, and with a win, they would sit at 5-7 and likely just two games out of the playoffs. With their star quarterback returning to the lineup, this could be a team to watch out for in the latter part of the season. Watson’s card values have seen a pretty substantial increase, as his ELITE cards have gone from a low of around $130 about a month ago to a floor of $340 this week.
Excluding the NFC South, which is the worst conference in football, there are a few other teams that are 4-7 that could make a late-season run and are worth noting. It’s expected that cards of most players that don’t have high ceilings, or players that aren’t likely to make the playoffs, will see a decrease in value. Taking a few calculated risks on players that could make the playoffs and, in turn, be in for a big back half of the season may prove to be fruitful for the portfolio.
Of all the teams at this record, the one that sticks out the most to me is Las Vegas. In his first year as head coach, Josh McDaniels hasn’t done his best job, but his offense, at times, certainly looks the part. The Raiders pulled off an impressive victory against Seattle last week, keeping their playoff hopes alive and showing that they can be a formidable opponent. A ton of attention goes to Josh Jacobs, and rightfully so, as his ELITE cards are still priced around $550, but counterparts in the offense, Derek Carr and Davante Adams are both trading near their all-time lows of around $200 and $300, respectively. While all of their games are important from here on out, this week's game against the Los Angeles Chargers is especially important, as the Chargers are currently ahead of the Raiders in the standings.
Looking for a few more additional tips for Week 13, check out the rest of the Lucky Trader Reignmakers content!
