DraftKings Diary | Buys, Sells, and What to Look for on DraftKings Reignmakers for Week 7
In the DraftKings Diary, each week Lucky Trader's Jason Rouslin will walk through his buys, sells, and team lookahead to give you insights from an experienced DraftKings Reignmakers player.
Check out Jason's full portfolio with the Lucky Trader Reignmakers Portfolio Tool.
Welcome to Week 7!
NFL Bye weeks started in Week 6, and inevitably that would lead to changes in the Reignmakers game, changes worth keeping note of as the season progresses.
One of the changes assumed is that it would lead to spacing out the cards. It did, and with that, brought the best-expected value since early on in the season.
Secondly, it also provided a substantial secondary market for players on a bye and had their marketplace price come down from their recent highs. We'll explore those points in more detail and preview the week in the Team Diary Week 7 Reignmaker Report below.
Week 5 Slate Review:
These were the top lineups I played from the available Week 5 DraftKings Reignmakers slates.
Slate 1: Thursday Night Football - Chicago versus Washington
- Captain: Justin Fields
- Flex: Darnell Mooney
- Flex: WSH D/St
- Flex: WSH D/St
Slate 2: Main Slate
- QB: Joe Burrow
- RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
- WR: Ja'Marr Chase
- WR/T: Tyreek Hill
- Flex: Stefon Diggs
Slate 3: Philadelphia versus Dallas
- Captain: Jalen Hurts
- Flex: DeVonta Smith
- Flex: A.J. Brown
- Flex: Ezekiel Elliot
Slate 4: Denver at Los Angeles Chargers
- Captain: Austin Ekeler
- Flex: Russell Wilson
- Flex: Joshua Palmer
- Flex: Brandon McManus
Week 6 Diary
If you missed last week's article, where I discussed my strategy up to this point in the season, check it out here. Interested in seeing what makes up the 700 + NFT card collection? Check it out here!
Week 6 Top Lineup Strategy/Tier & Contest
Contest: Elite Level Main Slate Fiat Frenzy | $250,000 GTD, $100,000 to First
Lineup:
- QB: Lamar Jackson
- RB: Saquon Barkley
- WR: Chris Godwin
- WR/T: Travis Kelce
- Flex: Gabe Davis
When the week starts with most of the best cards in the portfolio either on a showdown slate or on a bye, there is bound to be turnover. Having the game stack of Davis & Kelce was an easy build. Then I decided to sell Trevor Lawerence, DeVonta Smith, and a handful of other cards while re-investing some of the proceeds from last week and bought a Lamar Jackson Elite and a Chris Godwin Elite. Having already had a Saquon Barkley card in the deck, the decision was going to be to add either Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen at the QB position. That would have given me a stack in either direction, no matter which way I went at QB.
Given that they were all projected within a point or so of each other, the decision was to go with Jackson because he is the last of the three to have a bye. Also, there is a ton of liquidity in these respective player markets and the best near-term investment was Jackson, given his expected value over the next four weeks.
Ultimately, the stack of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, along with Kelce, Godwin, and Rhamondre Stevenson, would have produced the most optimal result in the portfolio.
Overall the slate yielded $550, or about 5 percent of my total investment. With 89 lineups entered, not the best, but not the worst week either.
Week 6 Buys & Sells
Unfortunately, injuries are such a big part of the NFL, and avoiding them is almost impossible. This week one of the more significant adds to the portfolio was the Arizona Cardinals, specifically Marquise Brown.
Coming down with an injury on what amounted to the last play of the game rubs a bit of salt in the wound, as he'll be out for multiple weeks with a foot injury. Another blow is selling Trevor Lawerence to help fund the Jackson buy...just to have him have his best game. However, the buy-lows on Stevenson, Darrell Henderson, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins help soften the blow a bit.
One last buy side note: after adding Brown to go along with the Kyler Murray cards, I decided to add DK Metcalf to the game stack. That didn't pan out so well, and as such, he's seen his values go down about 15 percent. I'll wait for a hopeful bounce-back game this week against the Chargers and hold on for one more week instead of selling at a low.
Week 7 Lookahead
Week 6 brings four separate DraftKings Reignmakers slates.
- Slate #1: Arizona vs. New Orleans
- Slate #2: Main Slate
- Slate #3: Pittsburgh vs. Miami
- Slate #4: Chicago vs. New England
Sticking with my goal each week to put out two high-quality elite-level main slate lines this week, luckily, the portfolio doesn't need to have too much turnover. Even though they aren't playing each other, going with the Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley stack will remain as long as Barkley isn't a superstar. Adding in Travis Kelce and one of the two Amon-Ra St. cards gives me a very strong starting four. St. Brown doesn't have a great matchup going up against a tough Dallas defense but should see less focus with the returns of D’Andre Swift. Austin Ekeler plays against Seattle this week for the second line, so using the game stack ‘with the aforementioned DK Metcalf and the other St. Brown card provides a solid foundation for the second line. So the question is where to go at the QB/WR stack to complete this second lineup.
One of the main strategies that have proven to be very equitable since the introduction of the Deep Roster Format is using the late swap strategy for it and showdown slates. Given the heavy investment into the Arizona team, I've decided to split my shares between the Deep Roster format and the showdown slate. Digging a bit deeper into this strategy of splitting up the cards, the lowest serial cards are being played on the showdown slate. In contrast, the higher number ones are played on the Deep Roster format, where tie-breaker formats are used less often.
Looking for a pure showdown play? Using Justin Fields as the main component for that Chicago team worked out to perfection last week, even though he didn't play all that well, nor did his team win, but it proved the strategy and should be used again for the upcoming slate vs. New England.
Going back to the strategy of using the Thursday night game to dictate lineup building for a good number of deep roster lineups, I also plan to use cards in the portfolios from the Miami and New England teams in deep roster lineups as well. This strategy is the flip side of using the Thursday game on whether to build those lineups optimally based on the performance of those kicking off on Thursday. The process is to create an optimal roster around those kicking off after the main slate on Sunday. If the team doesn't perform, those cards can be used in showdown contests or sold in the marketplace in the very liquid showdown market. Flexibility is crucial and should lead to a higher EV over the long term.
Week 7 Targets
First up are some returning quarterbacks. Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa are both scheduled to return from their respective injuries and be under center again. At the beginning of the season, both core cards were trading above $20, their rare cards reaching close to $100, and their elite levels close to $800. But after the injuries, their cards had come down more than 50 percent and are slowly starting to rise as news comes out that they will return this week. Already up about 15 percent from their lows, they should both provide a solid early-week investment, either for a flip before kick-off Sunday or to store and stash for the longer term.
DeAndre Hopkins is also set to return from his six-game suspension but has already seen his prices go up over 50 percent. Obviously, the injury to Brown helps the value rise quite a bit, but it's something that should be looked at. The next big star returning from suspension will be Deshaun Watson in Week 12, and while it's still a bit early to be investing in his cards, the value of a top-10 quarterback at his current levels is definitely +EV.
Now, a check-in on some of the key injuries from last week and a few players that seem to be on the verge of a breakout. On the injury front, Randall Cobb suffered an ankle injury and is likely to be out for at least a month. With Christian Watson hurt as well, it should free up Romeo Doubs to become the clear second option for Aaron Rodgers. The rookie has shown some promise this year, with solid outings in two of six games, and with no Cobb or Watson to take touches away, it should be close to a ceiling game.
Next up is Tom Brady's struggling squad, whose 3-3 record is the worst start for a Brady team in quite some time. He also lost his primary tight end Cameron Brate to a strained neck, although the injury looked much worse in real-time. Luckily, no structural damage, and Brate should make a full recovery.
In the interim, rookie tight end Cade Otton has seen an increased workload and target share. The rookie still needs to be added to the player pool for Reignmakers but could be in the next few weeks, along with another rookie Bailey Zappe of New England, who continues to play well.
On that note, Rachaad White will have his cards added via Auctions starting on 10/20. Lastly, on Tampa Bay, they face the historically bad Carolina team this week, whose offense is running the least amount of plays in the league by far and should end up as one of the best defenses on the slate. They need a big victory to get back on track this week.
There are also a few players on the verge of a breakout fantasy game, given their workload. The main one I'm focusing on this week is a second-year player, but really a rookie, given he missed his entire rookie season with an injury is Travis Etienne. While James Robinson was getting a bulk of the handoffs in the first weeks, that has evened out, with Etienne receiving ten carries to Robinson's 12 last week. Etienne is also the main featured back in the passing game, and while Robinson will continue to cut into his ceiling, Travis certainly looks to be on the verge of a breakout. He goes up against the Giants this week.
Lastly, some of the best teams and, subsequently, players in the NFL are on by this week. The Bills, the Eagles, the Vikings and the Rams all have the week off, and with it comes lower pricing for some of the stars on these teams. Stefon Diggs is one of those guys and has already seen his marketplace prices come down around 10-20 percent, with core cards starting at $35.99, down from a high of around $60, the rare level down to $160 from around $200, and the elite level down to $1,000 down from a high of $1,300. If you still need to invest in Diggs, this week might be the time.
Looking for a few more additional tips for Week 7, check out the rest of the Lucky Trader Reignmakers content!
