DraftKings Reignmakers | Showdown Slate Analysis

DraftKings Reignmakers | Showdown Slate Analysis

Week 9 is about to kick off with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Houston Texas, and we’ve got the analysis to help you ship this Showdown slate!

If this is your first experience with a showdown Reignmaker Game - let’s cover some basics first. Here is the format of the game:

  • 1 Captain (any Position) 
  • 3 Flex Spots (any position) 
  • At most, one SuperStar player per lineup

For the purposes of this article, we will focus on three rarity tiers, CORE, RARE, and ELITE. For the latter two, one RARE card is allowed for an ELITE contest lineup, and one CORE card is permitted for a RARE contest lineup.


Now that the basics are covered, let’s dive into the analysis. Below I've showcased Showdown data from Week 4 through Week 8 when Deep Roster Format contests were made available. Some Showdown-eligible player cards NFTs are utilized in the Deep Roster Formats, so it provides a better data set and representation. 

I’ll present the data by slate type: Thursday Night Football, International games, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football with respective rarities, and optimal project lineups for each contest. Each optimal lineup discussed below is project utilizing industry average fantasy projections. 

My hypothesis is that entering the optimally projected lineup into Showdown contests is not, in fact, an optimal winning strategy. But what does the data show us? 

*Note for Showdown contests, ties of the same lineup are broken by the total serial number of the lineup. 

Thursday Night Slates:

CORE Optimal Lineup Data:

  • Avg Finish Position: 449.8
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 227.6
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 48
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 1.6

Quick Analysis: Not only did the optimal lineup fail to finish inside the top 100 of any CORE contest, but the average number of times the lineup was duplicated was 48, providing little to no upside equity. In this sample, even a low tiebreaker wouldn’t have helped. Eight players from the five contests came from the optimal projected lineup. 

RARE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 146
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 136
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 23
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 1.4

Quick Analysis: Again, the optimal projected lineup failed to crack the top 25 for the rare tier, with lineups duplicated roughly 23 times. Optimally projected players accounted for seven of the 20 players in the winning lineups for this tier. 

ELITE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 62.5
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 87
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 12
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 1.6

At the ELITE level, the optimal projected lineups did a bit better, coming in the top 16 twice, but failing to crack the top ten. There wasn’t a slate where the optimal lineup wasn’t duplicated, and the average tiebreaker was around 87. 

International Game Slates:

CORE Level Optimal Lineup Data:

  • Avg Finish Position: 342.6
  • Avg Tie Breaker:201
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 55
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2.6

Quick Analysis: The international games featured more of the optimal players, accounting for eight of the total 12 across the three slate. 

RARE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 128
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 49
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 16
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2.6

Quick Analysis: The average finish position didn’t change much from the Thursday slates, but it is still far from the winning lineup. 

ELITE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 36
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 48
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 1.6
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2.6

Quick Analysis: The second-best finish for an optimally projected lineup came from this slate of games, where it finished in third at the ELITE level tier for the Minnesota and New Orleans game. 

Sunday Night Game Slates:

CORE Level Optimal Lineup Data:

  • Avg Finish Position: 291
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 127 
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 126
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2

Quick Analysis: The average finish position of the optimally projected lineup was better in this slate of games than the others, but the average tiebreaker was also lower, and the average number of duplicated lineups was up. 

RARE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 116
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 68.6
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 16
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2

Quick Analysis: The trend of the average finish position being lower, but lower tie breakers and a higher number of duplicates continued. The lineup failed to break the top 20 in any of the five slates. 

ELITE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 34.5
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 57.2
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 22.6
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2 

Quick Analysis: Same trends from the two previous tiers stayed true in this tier. 

Monday Night Game Slates:

CORE Level Optimal Lineup Data:

  • Avg Finish Position: 269
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 243 
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 45.25
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2.9

Quick Analysis: The best slates for the optimally projected lineup, on average, were the Monday Night slates. The average finish was 269, easily the lowest out of any of the four defined slate types. 

RARE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 85.25
  • Avg Tie Breaker: 111.5
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 17
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2.9

Quick Analysis: The trend of the average finish position being lower but lower tie breakers and a higher number of duplicates continued. The lineup failed to break the top 20 in any of the five slates. 

ELITE Level Optimal Lineup Data: 

  • Avg Finish Position: 22.5
  • Avg Tie Breaker:60.5
  • Avg # of Duplicated Lineups: 7.5
  • Avg # of Optimal Players in Winning Lineup: 2.9

Quick Analysis: Same trends from the two previous tiers stayed true in this tier. This slate also produced the best overall finish for an optimally projected lineup. It was a second-place finish on Oct. 10 for the KC vs. LV slate featuring Patrick Mahomes as captain and Travis Kelce, Josh Jacobs, and Derek Carr in the flex spots. 

What Does It Mean?

It’s pretty clear that entering the optimally projected lineup has failed to work as a winning strategy in these Showdown slates. However, there were only two instances where the lineup failed to cash, so if you are looking for a reasonable possibility of some return on a lineup, it still presents as a solid cashing strategy. Far from the winning strategy, however.

One more note as well, in instances where there were two SuperStars in the game, especially on opposite teams, the optimally projected lineup had its best finishes. 

Good luck in tonight's Showdown slate and the rest of your Week 9 NFL Reignmaker lineups! 

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