Reignmakers Market Report: Players to Watch and Strategic Insights for Week 10
Week Ten is upon us, as we are officially halfway through the regular season. Last week, prices continued to decline, but not nearly as much as the previous week when new supply was introduced. Now, we are all but DONE with new supply coming to the market. The next batch of new supply, and the last batch, will come in the Holiday Packs, featuring player cards that one can use to try and win one million dollars on Thanksgiving.
This article focuses on capitalizing on market overreactions, which can yield returns regardless of the actual game outcomes. While player performance is undoubtedly important, gamers are starting to shape their portfolio to gain the most utility they can out of the cards, and that includes adding potential players who are expected to make the playoffs. Let's dive into the market over the last seven days and see if we can make a few good buys here this week.
Following a standout performance last week, CJ Stroud has experienced a nearly 100% surge in his card prices, now hovering around $350.00 at the ELITE level. Other quarterbacks receiving significant positive price action are Geno Smith, a hopeful contender for the playoffs, and Dak Prescott. Smith, with ELITE-tier prices below $200, is gaining renewed attention as the slate approaches and the availability of solid quarterbacks diminishes.
Other quarterbacks, such as Deshaun Watson, who fully recovered from injury and is playing well, along with Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and even Mac Jones, have witnessed increases in their card prices over the past seven days.
The running back position, plagued by injuries, witnessed a couple of players' price increases due to their return from injury, while others benefited from counterparts in the backfield getting injured. Alexander Mattison in Minnesota, now the primary back for the Vikings following Cam Akers' season-ending Achilles injury, has seen a dramatic increase in card prices, with his ELITE editions now starting at over $100 for their floor. Green Bay's Aaron Jones, returning from injury, reached full form last week, finding the end zone, leading to a 50% rise in his card prices from around $150 to approximately $250 to start Week 10.
Other running backs experiencing card price increases over the last seven days include James Conner, set to return from injury reserve alongside quarterback Kyler Murray and a revamped Arizona team in Week 10. Breece Hall and Joe Mixon both observed a 25% rise in their prices. Lastly, David Montgomery's return from injury in Detroit has driven his card prices to around $240 at the ELITE tier. Overall, the price action for running backs was more positive this week than in previous weeks, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market, even evidenced by Tony Pollard, who saw a 10% increase week over week after a recent decline in card prices.
In the realm of wide receivers, Noah Brown and his Texan teammate Nathaniel "Tank" Dell are spearheading the surge, fueled by breakout performances against the Buccaneers last week and an injury to the Texans' top wide receiver Nico Collins, sidelining him for the upcoming weekend. Both Brown and Dell have witnessed over a 100% increase in their card prices over the last week, with Brown's prices escalating from $40 to over $120 in this short span. Another beneficiary of injuries, Tyler Boyd, is set to assume the role of the number two wide receiver for the Bengals, with Tee Higgins ruled out for this week's game and a possibility that Ja'marr Chase may also be absent, amplifying the value of Boyd's editions. Despite Higgins being sidelined this week, his card prices experienced a significant increase over the last seven days, now hovering around $260 for his ELITE tier cards.
Several other wide receivers have seen upticks in their card prices in the past week, including Quentin Johnson, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. After momentarily dipping to around $300 for his ELITE tier cards, Amon-Ra St. Brown has rebounded with a 25% increase, reaching approximately $400. CeeDee Lamb continues his upward trajectory, emerging as one of the most expensive ELITE tier cards in the game, with prices settling around $600. The return of Kyler Murray to the Arizona Cardinals' offense has positively influenced his playmakers, with James Conner and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown witnessing increases in their card prices over the last seven days.
On the positive side of the market this week, a notable theme is the ELITE tier and above nearing its supply capacity. This has contributed to a stabilization in prices, easing the significant drop observed two weeks ago when the final premium supply packs entered the market. Currently, there are only occasional downturns for each player. Now, let's delve into some of the downward movers over the last seven days and explore whether there might be buy-low opportunities for players who may have underperformed in recent weeks.
Focusing on quarterbacks whose prices have declined over the last seven days, we see players like Daniel Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo, who are no longer starting for their respective teams. Unfortunately, Daniel Jones won't be available for the rest of the season due to injury. Starting quarterbacks who experienced a decrease in value over the last week include Taylor Heinicke, down by 30%, Gardner Minshew, down by 25%, and, with specific editions, Tua Tagovailoa's card is now around $400 at the ELITE tier, down about 20% week over week.
Lastly, it appears that Justin Herbert is somewhat limited due to his finger injury. If you haven't bought his card editions yet, you can find them for under $300 at the ELITE tier. Two other superstar quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, either aren't on the main slate this week or are on a bye. Their card prices have seen a slight downturn over the last seven days but have started to stabilize around $370 for the ELITE tier cards.
Experiencing declines in their card prices over the last seven days are notable names like Saquon Barkley, who may face challenges in scoring points for the remainder of the season, especially with Tommy DeVito stepping in as the quarterback following Daniel Jones's season-ending ACL tear in Week 9. For those eyeing a Kansas City Chiefs running back, this might be an opportune week to make a move, as Isaiah Pacheco's cards are on a downward trajectory, decreasing over 28% in the last seven days to a floor price of around $170 in his previous ELITE tier.
A couple of other significant players witnessing decreases in their card prices include D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and Kenneth Walker.
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