The Approach Set Update: Mexico Open Edition

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Week four of the new Approach set is launching on DraftKings as the PGA TOUR heads to Mexico for the Mexico Open. In the first week, most Approach packs at the RARE and ELITE levels sold out within minutes. However, the second week saw a significant increase in available golfers, and while the RARE level still sold out, both the ELITE and LEGENDARY levels struggled to find buyers. This trend persisted at the Zurich Classic last week, with RARE selling out and ELITE and LEGENDARY levels remaining unsold. DraftKings is now auctioning off the leftover LEGENDARY cards from the packs.

As the drop continues for two more weeks, the current trend is likely to persist this week. However, next week may see a change, as most of the world's top golfers are set to return to the course and the majority of other golfers in the set have already had their cards released. With prices lower than the initial pack drop, next week's release could have relatively high positive expected value. Before we look ahead to next week, let's focus on the smallest drop of the four thus far, featuring only 25 golfers in the Mexico Open set.

Golfers In This Drop

As mentioned earlier, this drop features only 25 golfers with varying supply levels. George McNeill and Camilo Villegas, from "Group 4," haven't played in the last three weeks and will have 100% of their supply released.

No Group 3 golfers are competing for the first time this week in Mexico, so all will have 25% of their total supply from the set released. These golfers include:

Gary Woodland
Lanto Griffin
Martin Laird
Adam Long
Stephan Jaeger
Patrick Rodgers
Kevin Streelman
Peter Malnati
Nate Lashley
James Hahn

Several Group 2 golfers are making their second start in the last four weeks and will have 30% of their total supply dropped. They are:

Lucas Glover
Chez Reavie
Maverick McNealy
Andrew Putnam
Emiliano Grillo
Alex Smalley

Lastly, a few golfers from Groups 1 and 2 are competing for the third time during this drop, so their remaining 10% supply will be released:

Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Luke List
Davis Riley
Taylor Pendrith
Wyndham Clark

Actual Supply

Now that we've covered all the golfers in this drop, let's break down the expected distribution of each player in this drop, based on pack types.

RARE Packs

Group 4: 360 CORE Cards (180 x 2)
Group 4: 180 RARE Cards (90 x 2)
Group 3: 450 CORE Cards (45 x 10)
Group 3: 225 RARE Cards (22.5 x 10)
Group 2: 324 CORE Cards (54 x 6)
Group 2: 162 RARE Cards (27 x 6)
Group 1/2: 108 CORE Cards (6 x 18)
Group 1/2: 54 RARE Cards (6 x 9)

ELITE Packs

Group 4: 180 RARE Cards (90 x 2)
Group 4: 100 ELITE Cards (50 x 2)
Group 3: 125 ELITE Cards (25 x 6)
Group 3: 225 RARE Cards (22.5 x 10)
Group 2: 90 ELITE Cards (15 x 6)
Group 2: 162 RARE Cards (27 x 6)
Group 1/2: 30 ELITE Cards (6 x 5)
Group 1/2: 54 RARE Cards (6 x 9)

LEGENDARY Packs

Group 4: 68 LEGENDARY Cards (34 x 2)
Group 4: 100 ELITE Cards (50 x 2)
Group 3: 125 ELITE Cards (25 x 6)
Group 3: 85 LEGENDARY Cards (8.5 x 10)
Group 2: 90 ELITE Cards (15 x 6)
Group 2: 72 LEGENDARY Cards (10.2 x 6)
Group 1/2: 30 ELITE Cards (6 x 5)
Group 1/2: 30.6 LEGENDARY Cards (3.4 x 9)

Totals

RARE: 1242 CORE Cards, 621 RARE Cards
ELITE: 621 RARE Cards, 345 ELITE Cards
LEGENDARY: 345 ELITE Cards, 255 LEGENDARY Cards

Percentages

Group 4: 28%
Group 3: 36%
Group 1/2: 34%

With such a small number of golfers in this set, it's no surprise that the likelihood of getting a Group 1 or Group 2 golfer is higher than in last week's pack. However, with Villegas and McNeill accounting for 28% of the supply and neither expected to play in many more tournaments this year, there are reasons to believe that this week's packs may not be as strong, at least based on current market prices.

As mentioned earlier, the situation is expected to be different at next week's Wells Fargo Championship. That event will likely feature at least 10% of the total supply of most of the world's top golfers, including Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Justin Thomas, and many others. If Rory McIlroy returns, 30% of his remaining supply will be released. So, let's enjoy the Mexico Open and prepare to enhance our collections next week in a much more positive expected value (EV) drop setting.

Author Bio

Jason Rouslin

Hailing from the great, but little, state of Rhode Island, Jason decided that year-round golf was too hard to pass up. So, after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year (comfortably), upended those roots and moved to the sunshine state, Florida. 5 years later Jason is the proud Dad of two young boys and a black lab Bella. . In his professional time he can be found diving into the DraftKings Reignmaker game, researching PGA Tour stats, and investing, with a heavy focus on equity markets. In his spare time, playing golf is likely on the docket. If not that, then it's likely something to do with Disney, as he enjoys just about everything, from the theme parks to the Marvel movies. Shoot him a message on Twitter @dfsgolfer23, he'd love to chat!

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