The Approach Set Update | PGA Championship
Welcome to Major Championship Week, the pinnacle event for golf enthusiasts worldwide as top-tier golfers compete on the grandest stage professional golf has to offer. The week also marks the culmination of the Approach Set Pack Drop, with remaining inventory from the set slated for release.
However, the exact criteria used to determine these allocations remains murky. What we do know is that these player-specific allocations are derived from unsold packs over the past five weeks, barring the most recent week. In this piece, I will delve into these percentages, providing a straightforward Expected Value (EV) analysis for these packs to help you decide if they merit inclusion in your preparations for the week.
Bump & Run (ELITE) Pack Analysis
Here's the list of golfers and their respective chances of being found in the packs:
Just over a quarter of the total allocation for the ELITE packs originates from Group 1. This provides decent odds of securing at least one Group 1 golfer per pack. To elaborate further, statistically, you can expect to find a card from a top 15-ranked golfer in the world in every second or third pack on average.
This week's drop predominantly features cards from golfers in Group 2, accounting for approximately 40% of the total allocation. Many of these players are expected to provide substantial utility throughout the remainder of the season.
Group 3 & 4
The remaining 30% or so of the allocation is dedicated to golfers in Groups 3 and 4. Despite this, there are still numerous noteworthy names in this set, promising a fair amount of utility as the season progresses.
To reiterate, let's focus solely on the ELITE level "Bump and Run Packs." Using the minimum value of each player card, estimated around 5:00 PM EST on Monday, 5/15/2023, the total comes to approximately $575,000. Given that there are 1200 packs available, each pack implies a value of around $480, which is an increase of $230 from the listed price. Best of luck this week, and keep an eye out for our upcoming Reignmakers PGA Championship content.