The Approach Set Update | Premium Booster Pack
As the first season of the new DraftKings Reignmakers PGA TOUR rolls along, new additions are expected. One of the great things about Reignmakers, for all sports, is that the number of editions for each athlete, at each rarity tier above RARE, is known. So, while some packs are still held back, it was expected that many of the stated editions were to be in circulation. Some of them didn’t sell, and because of that, DraftKings has created a new Premium Booster Pack, filled with all the Approach Set cards that did not sell over the previous six weeks. So, in this article, we’ll break down the new booster pack and then calculate an expected value number for the pack.
Premium Booster Pack: Important Notes
What’s in the packs? Each pack will come with three cards, ranging from RARE to LEGENDARY. Packs are guaranteed to have 2 RARE and 1 ELITE/LEGENDARY. The packs on drop will cost $99.99 each, with 3900 packs available.
Premium Booster Pack: Odds & Percentages
The cards that make up these packs primarily come from the ELITE level- bump n run packs, which were filled with RARE and ELITE cards. Unfortunately, the RARE level cards do not have the best player pool and have the following breakdown in terms of percentages from each group of golfers.
It’s very likely (95%) that at least one of the RARE cards will be a golfer from Group 4, and almost a guarantee that one of the 2 RARE cards will come from either Group 3 or 4. Here are all the golfers from those groups, and the corresponding percentage of the drop at the RARE level.
As we move up into the ELITE Tier, where it’s expected to get at least 3 cards for every 4 packs (0.75 per pack), the distribution gets a bit better, with more Group 1 and Group 2 players available. Let’s take a look:
Here are the breakdowns of each golfer from Groups 1 & 2 at the ELITE tier.
Lastly, the LEGENDARY level. While only the odds of pulling one of these is about 1 in every 4 packs, the distribution of golfers is quite decent, and even better if you believe in a Daniel Berger come back…
Expected Value Analysis
First, let’s define how we arrive at this number. It’s rather simple. We take the entire drop, use the floor price of each player, and discount it by 20 percent to account for marketplace fluctuations and additional supply added, and then add it all together, and we get a value of around $600,000. There are a total of 4,000 packs in this drop, at $99.99, for a total possibly take off $399,960.
Next, to find an EV of each pack, which again is just using the floor value, not marketplace value, divide the 4,000 packs by the floor price of 600,000 to get an EV of $150.00 for each pack. In conclusion, the booster packs are reasonably priced for the assets included.