Morning Minute | Bitcoin Rebounds 10% Into Tonight's Halving

TylerD's Market Summary

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🟠 The Bitcoin Halving Is Here

The final countdown is on.

Current projections show the Bitcoin halving (where miner rewards cut in half, also meaning miner sell pressure reduces by 50%) will happen at 6:30 pm ET tonight.

So the billion dollar question - what happens after the halving?

What happens to Bitcoin?

Historically - nothing. At least for the first 5 months.

Based on this analysis which looked at the average returns from the prior cycles, movement in BTC price in the first 0-5 months post-halving is very slow.

It speeds up in months 6-8 and then rockets after month 8.

So if this cycle plays out like the average of prior ones, Q4 is when the action begins.

And fireworks in Q1 2025.

Feels like forever away, but a fun plan nonetheless.

Now that's just analysis based on past cycles. This cycle may be totally different with the ETFs now playing a major factor, along with a very volatile geo-political backdrop.

But the concept should apply. Reduction in daily sell pressure does not lead to an instant spike.

It makes a larger difference over time, not right away - which makes sense.

So plan accordingly.

What Happens with Runes?

The entire timeline has been nonstop Runes talk for the past few weeks.

So are they overhyped?

Perhaps, but attention is also incredibly important in the memecoin / utility coin streets.

And Runes have attention.

Here are my pre-runes power rankings headed into the halving:

1. RSIC
2. PUPS
3. WZRD
4. Runestone
5. Prometheans

One of the big open questions with the Runes launch is - will the UX be much of an improvement over the current BRC-20 UX?

Some think it won't be and are bearish for that reason.

I'll take the opposite side.

Infrastructure will be ready.

• Magic Eden is launching Runes trading support starting April 23
• OKX is launching an OKX Runes Market
• Ordinals lending protocol Liquidium will have Runes support

And that's not even factoring in any major CEX's (cough, Binance) listing one or more of the most hyped Runes.

Attention + more liquidity + a better trading experience seems like a winning formula for me.

Sure some of these leaders have already run to mid-9-figure market caps - but there is still room to run.

I'm long.

The other wildcard is infrastructure plays.

Runevo just launched NFTs that convert to runes and are tied to their mobile-first Runes product - plays like that could do very well pending adoption of their product.

So watch for those that spring up over the coming days and weeks.

What Happens with Ordinals?

Runes are certainly in the spotlight, but people still love flexing PFPs.

Ordinals are the most obvious rotation play for anyone making huge gains in Runes but still wants to play in the ecosystem (behind just going spot BTC of course).

And Institutions keep posting about Ordinals.

Franklin Templeton first, now Fidelity.

Attention is here and more is likely coming.

The wildcard - it's becoming prohibitively expensive to launch new 10k collections.

Yesterday Danny (OCM founder and well respected BTC thought leader) shared that it would cost $3.3M to inscribe a new 10k collection in the current gas environment.

And gas is expected to go up post-halving.

What does it mean? Less dilution.

And the current leaders are primed to be the recipients of any major rotations.

My Ordinals power rankings headed into the halving:

1. NodeMonkes
2. Bitcoin Puppets
3. Quantum Cats
4. OMB
5. Pizza Ninjas

I do think one or more winners on this list could level up (2x or more) over the coming weeks pending success of runes.

What's also notable about that list is there are no real projects in the 0-0.1 BTC range, meaning the market is ripe for a microcap(s) rally.

Conclusion

None of us know what will happen but it's fun to speculate.

In the scenario where Bitcoin chops / consolidates for the next few months, Runes and Ordinals likely both win.

At least that's my bet and I'm positioned accordingly.

It's going to be fun to watch. Good luck out there, and see you on the otherside of the halving.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Bitcoin led NFT trading volume with $19.7M on the day (+46%); ETH was next with $7.8M (+10%) and then Solana with $6.1M (+30%)
• Runestone led the BTC NFT board again though falling 25% to 0.068 BTC after Leonidas did a fundraise to go after runes 1-10; Pups and Nodes held eve
• RSIC was a winner in the Runestone fallout, jumping to 0.078 BTC with just 12 hours of mining left; Prometheans held strong at 0.03 BTC
• Bitcoin Wizards jumped to 0.395 BTC after Ansem touted WZRD and it surged 50% to $12 ($257M mc)
• ETH NFT leaders were mixed with BAYC (-1%) and MAYC (-4%) but Pudgy +3%, Azuki +3% and Milady +2%
• Mintify Genesis was a notable winner, jumping 117% to 0.15 ETH
• Solana NFTs were very red on the day; Mad Lads -14% at 105 SOL, Tensorians -4% at 16; free mint Theory of Gravity runs to 1.5
• XCOPY's "$LAVE" sold for 315 ETH ($967,000) to notable collector BatSoup
• ACK's "but wait...my bags!" sold for 28.69 ETH to another notable collector Bharat Krymo

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

• $WZRD outperformed in BRC20s, jumping 50% to $12 after an Ansem tout, now just a 2x behind PUPS
• The $PUPS team announced a partnership with OKX to feature the token on OKX Runes Market launching post-migration, along with a partnership with Liquidium
• Thruster announced a $7.5M seed round led by Pantera, using the money to focus on yield and DeFi products and better onchain UX
• NFTfi and NFTX announced a partnership to work on NFT financialization and composability

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are very green this morning after Bloomberg reported the Israel Iran conflict may be over; BTC +3.7% at $65,000; ETH +1.8% at $3,100; SOL +7% at $145
• Memecoin majors were green with WIF and BODEN outperforming; DOGE +3%, WIF +17%, PEPE +4%, BODEN +25%; several Solana memes up 25%
• Coinbase will add WIF perp futures to its International and Advanced exchanges starting April 25

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $APED (+450%, $15M market cap, Base)
• $MICHI (+95%, $18M market cap, Solana)
• $HARAMBE (+56%, $21M market cap, Solana)
• $DEGEN (+28%, $1.2BM FDV, Base)
• $SC (+32%, $110M market cap, Solana)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Mintify (117%, 0.15 ETH Floor)
• Beeple Spring Collection (65%, 6.69 ETH)
• Proof of Narnia (53%, 0.69 ETH)
• Mittaria (21%, 0.2 ETH)
• Persona (20%, 0.22 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is a huge day with the halving coming around 6:30 pm ET and the potential launch of Runes immediately after.

The last slate of Ordinals are minting ahead of a likely pause in the coming days (due to gas spikes), with The Ones a likely highlight today.

Bold Leonidas is the Memes card artist so expect some extra demand on that one.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Ordinal x Tribes (10:00 a.m. ET)
• The Ones (10:00 a.m. ET)
• Karmastone (10:00 a.m. ET)
• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Halvinals (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Based Bits (1:00 p.m. ET)
• The Halving (6:30 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.