Morning Minute | Crypto Rallies After Powell Says Rate Cuts Coming

TylerD's Market Summary

📈 Crypto Rallies After Powell Comments

Interest rate cuts have been one of the hottest macro economic topics of the past several months.

Traders have been forced to become quasi-experts in CPI reports and jobs numbers, trying to interpret what the metrics may mean with respect to interest rate cuts.

Well, we may have finally got the confirmation that rate cuts are finally coming.

And crypto liked the news.

What Happened?

On Friday, Jerome Powell confirmed that rate cuts are coming soon in a speech at Jackson Hole.

The direct quote:

"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

Interestingly, this comes just a few weeks after the Yen carry trade "crash" and recovery, which led many to say Powell waited too long to cut.

Currently, Polymarket is showing a 68% chance of a 25 bps cut in September, a 27% chance for 50 bps and just a 4% chance of no cuts.

So a cut is almostly certainly coming, with just a question of how big.

And the markets liked the news.

Market Impact

BTC rallied from below $61,000 at the start of Friday all the way past $64,000 by late Friday evening, and effectively held there throughout the weekend.

That BTC move came on the back of $252M in ETF inflows after Powell's comments, the highest day of inflows in weeks.

ETH and SOL caught nice moves as well, with ETH jumping to $2,750 (though held back by the Ethereum Foundation selling) and SOL outperformed jumping to $162 (+15% on the week).

Meme leaders rebounded strongly as well (weekly % change):

• PEPE to $3.83B (+26%)
• WIF to $1.92B (+44%)
• BONK to $1.44B (+22%)
• POPCAT to $750M (+97%)
• MOG to $417M (+16%)

Even NFTs caught some love in the move, with leaders like BAYC (+14% to 13.87 ETH) and Pudgy Penguins (+19% to 10.9 ETH) catching nice green candles over the weekend.

Why It Matters

The long-awaited interest rate cuts from the Fed are finally on the horizon.

Now we are about to find out how they actually impact the market.

Some have been calling for a recession, pointing to market response to prior rate cuts.

Others have been calling for the banana zone, with the money printer turning on and risk assets set to benefit most.

The reality is likely somewhere in the middle, but if I have to make a prediction - the rate cuts are bullish. And we end the year at a smashing new ATH for Bitcoin.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH led NFT trading volume with $4M on the day; Solana was next with $3.3M, and then BTC with $1.9M
• ETH NFT leaders were slightly red but closed a very green week; Pudgy even at 11 ETH, BAYC even at 13.9 ETH, Azuki -2% at 4.78, Milady -2% at 3.87; Punks up to 29.4
• Jirasan (+70%) and Sproto Gremlins (+45%) were other notable top movers
• BTC NFT leaders were mixed but closed a green week; NodeMonkes -1% at 0.153 BTC, Puppets -4% at 0.1 BTC, OMB +5% at 0.172, Quantum Cats even at 0.29
• The Runes leaders were very green; DOG +8% at $372M mc, RSIC +7% at $84M mc, PUPS +6% to $52M
• Solana NFTs were mostly green; Mad Lads even at 56 SOL, SMB Gen 2 +4% at 27, DeGods +1% at 34, Bodoggos +27% at 4.1
• XCOPY saw a big trio of sales, with DEATHLESS selling for 40 ETH, OVERLORD selling for 35 ETH and Gobble selling for 22.6 ETH
• Forgotten Runiverse's New Foundation launches today at 10 am PST

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors rallied over the weekend after Powell's interest rate cut comments Friday; BTC even at $64,000; ETH even at $2,750, SOL +3% at $162
• Memecoin majors were mostly green with DOGE +1%, PEPE +2%, WIF +2%, BONK +1%, MOG -6%
• TON fell 14% to $5.63 after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in France, charged as complicit with crimes facilitated on TG due to lack of moderation/cooperation
• AI tokens like FET, TAO were notable top movers ahead of NVIDIA earning this week
• Ethereum Foundation shares high-level details for $100M/year budget leading to outcry
• JLP hit an ATH over the weekend on the back of the crypto rally, now at $3.33
• Kamala Harris re-flipped Donald Trump on Polymarket on Sunday, with a narrow 50-49 lead

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $WDOG (+63%, $18M market cap, SOL)
• $FWOG (+55%, $59M market cap, SOL)
• $SUNDOG (+40%, $302M market cap, TRON)
• $BRAINLET (+25%, $30M market cap, SOL)
• $EBULL (+25%, $18M market cap, ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Creature World (70%, 0.11 ETH Floor)
• Velocity Pass 2.0 (50%, 0.12 ETH)
• Realms of Ether (44%, 0.65 ETH)
• Radbro (37%, 0.1 ETH)
• Chameleon Travel Club (29%, 2.77 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a busier day of mints and events.

Arcade is launching its Paradice mint as a new gamblefi project with prizes.

There are multiple BTC mints including EZ Mining, Goodfellas and more. And artist Jessica Yatrofsky returns with her "Buried In Your Eyeline" drop.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• EZ Mining - Fractal Mining Pass (10:00 a.m. ET)
• Goodfellas (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Jessica Yatrofsky - Buried In Your Eyeline (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Arcade - Paradice (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Pathfinders (1:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.