Morning Minute | Crypto's Black Monday

TylerD's Market Summary

📉 Crypto Prices Crash in Worst Day Since 2021

It's ugly out there.

Crypto majors are down 20-30% in a single day. Memecoin leaders are down even more.

And it doesn't seem we are out of the woods yet.

What Happened?

Bitcoin, ETH and SOL have taken a major hit in the past day.

Bitcoin is down 16% to $51,230, ETH is down 23% to $2,250 and SOL is down 22% to $113.

The overall crypto market cap is at $1.8T, down 25% in just a few days.

With this dip, most of 2024's gains have been totally wiped out. And over $1B in liquidations have occurred across 275,000 individual traders (largest was $27M).

Really not great.

And with stocks set to have a Black Monday of their own, it's hard to imagine crypto doesn't get hurt more in the aftermath.

Why Is It Happening?

Several factors seemingly came together for a perfect storm of negative catalysts:

• The Japanese Yen carry trade* unwinding (biggest factor impacting stock markets)
• The escalating Iran & Israel military conflict
• Kamala flipping Donald Trump in latest polls and modeling (Erasing the "Trump pump" from markets)
• The negative jobs report in the US
• Jump Crypto seemingly unwinding huge portions of their book if not all

*For those curious, a carry trade is when a trader borrows currency from a country with low interest rates and a cheaper currency (i.e. JPY) and reinvests that money in a country with higher rates and a stronger currency (i.e. USD).

Jump Crypto is likely making everything much worse, having sold $46M+ of ETH in the past day and selling around the clock.

And they have another ~50,000 ETH left, meaning there's likely more pain to come if they keep selling.

What Next?

It's going to take some time for the dust to settle here and calls that we're in a recession will get much louder.

But the macro set up here in Summer 2024 feels different than it did in say the 2008 major recession.

In many ways, this feels closer to a "Black Swan" crash like the 2020 Covid crash.

Let's hope this set up mirrors 2020, because the Covid crash led to a V-shaped recovery within a period of just a few months (along with massive US Government money printing).

With the election now just 3 months away, the Dems will certainly want to do whatever they can to correct market conditions. Powell will certainly cut rates in September, now just a matter of how big of cuts (and if there will be an emergency cut even sooner).

Some positive news to end this feature with - crypto majors are still up significantly on a 1-year time horizon.

• BTC +77% (from $29k)
• ETH +22% (from $1,820)
• SOL +400% (from $23)

So hang in there, and zoom out. This too shall pass.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH led NFT trading volume with $5.98M on the day; Solana was next with $3.2M, and then BTC with $2.2M
• ETH NFT leaders were red with most down 7-15%; Pudgy -7% at 7.5 ETH, Milady -8% at 4, Azuki -1% at 3.85 and BAYC -2% at 9.3; Mocaverse outperformed +4% to 1.75
• Rug Radio Genesis (+42%) and RTFKT Project Animus (+40%) were top movers
• The Punk floor has fallen to 22.75 ETH ($51,800)
• BTC NFT leaders were very red on the day down 10-20%; NodeMonkes -14% at 0.94 BTC, Puppets -16% at 0.06 BTC, Quantum Cats -20% at 0.205, OMB -7% at 0.149
• The Runes leaders were very red as well; DOG -14% at $190M mc, RSIC -11% at $34M mc, PUPS -15% at $20M
• Solana NFTs were red; Mad Lads -7% at 52 SOL, SMB Gen 2 -4% at 21.2, DeGods -17% at 12
• Mintify announced a new Ordinal Keys launch ahead of its upcoming Ordinals market place

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are down 15-20% this morning; BTC -15% at $51,460; ETH -22% at $2,270, SOL -20% at $115
• Memecoin majors are down even more with DOGE -23%, PEPE -28%, WIF -30%, BONK -23%, MOG -32%; the top 74 memes by market cap on Solana's dexscreener all showed red on the day
• Morgan Stanley gave the green light to its advisors to offer BTC ETFs to their clients, starting with IBIT and FBTC
• Jupiter announced its latest proposal to slash the token supply by 30% has passed
• Blast's stablecoin USDB briefly depegged to below $0.94 but is back to $0.99 this morning

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• n/a

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Nouns (73%, 3.97 ETH Floor)
• Electric Sheep (55%, 0.24 ETH)
• Sports Rollbots (46%, 0.26 ETH)
• Rug Genesis (42%, 0.07 ETH)
• Project Animus (40%, 0.05 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a slower day of mints on what is going to be a very bloody day in the markets.

HolyMath has generated a lot of hype over on Bitcoin, but given market conditions, hard to predict the success of the mint.

Laprisamata is the meme card artist in the only other drop on the list for today.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Orkhan - HolyMath (10:00 a.m. ET)
• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.