Morning Minute | Prediction Markets Win Amidst Political Chaos

TylerD's Market Summary

📈 Polymarket Sees Record-Smashing July

July was one for the history books for American politics.

And for the record books for prediction markets like Polymarket.

What Happened?

The combination of the Trump assassination attempt, Biden stepping down from the 2024 race, Kamala swiftly appointed, JD Vance getting the R nod and speculation around the Dem VP nom drove massive volume and volatility in the election markets.

Just look at the July summary numbers (and month-over-month growth):

• $387M in volume (+250%)
• 44,523 active traders (+50%)
• 65,000 new accounts (+240%)
• $84M in total open interest (+100%)

Massive growth.

And it doesn't appear to be slowing down.

Polymarket has already notched $29M in volume on the first day of August, putting them on pace for a $600M month.

They are also getting traction outside of election markets.

According to ParaFi Capital's research, only 42% of new accounts made their first bet in an election market and non-election betting is up 400% this year. And of those 42%, 56% have went on to make a non-election bet.

So more than half of the users coming for election betting are moving on and dabbling in other markets.

Though election market volume is still 70%+ of daily trading volume and election markets still dominate the highest volume bets.

What's Next?

For the next 3 months leading up to the November election, expect volume to only increase.

Many who have wanted to bet on the election have likely held off due to the opportunity cost of sinking capital into a bet that won't be resolved for 3 months or more.

Now that timeline is reducing, and it becomes easier and easier to lock up capital as the time period shrinks.

I fully expect October to be a blow off month.

November likely catches a surprising amount of post-election betting, especially as those with gains look to compound them elsewhere.

The big question though is - how will Polymarket keep this momentum with no election markets?

It's a tough one to answer, but the stats referenced above have to give them some hope that it's possible.

We will certainly find out soon enough.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH led NFT trading volume with $5.4M on the day; Solana was next with $2.5M, and then BTC with $2.4M
• ETH NFT leaders were red with most down 1-5%; Pudgy -1% at 9.4 ETH, Captainz -6% to 2.07,  Milady -1% at 5.03 and BAYC -1% at 9.59
• The Art Pass by Iconic Moments (+250%) and Early Retired Cats Club (+130%) were big winners on the day
• BTC NFT leaders were mixed on the day; NodeMonkes -8% at 0.11 BTC, Puppets +4% at 0.081 BTC, Quantum Cats +2% at 0.264, OMB -2% at 0.167
• The Runes leaders were mostly green; DOG +6% at $328M mc, RSIC +2% at $55M mc, PUPS +11% at $32M
• Solana NFTs were red; Mad Lads -4% at 57 SOL, SMB Gen 2 -1% at 21.2, DeGods even at 13
• Doodles officially unveiled their collab with AriZona Iced Tea, sharing that special tea bottles will be available for purchase online and in select locations in NYC, Miami, and LA
• Rekt Drinks introduced its new Rekt Rewards program, allowing users to earn DRANK points for completing quests and purchasing drinks
• nWay announced the launch of Cosmic Bomber, a casual multiplayer action game available exclusively for Moca ID holders

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are mixed this morning; BTC +1% at $64,850; ETH -1% at $3,160, SOL -2% at $165
• Memecoin majors are mostly red with DOGE -2%, PEPE -2%, WIF -3%, BONK +2%, MOG -8%
• Michael Saylor is filing a registration to buy another $2B of BTC for Microstrategy
• Coinbase released its Q2 earnings which included a beat in revenue ($1.45B vs $1.4B expected) though a drop in income tied to a 27% fall Q-over-Q in trading and transaction fees; 
• Sandbox announced its vision for multi-chain feature, partnering with LayerZero and opening interoperability with Base, Polygon, and BNB with more chains to come
• Scottie Pippen's latest memecoin launch $BALL is holding at $2.6M mc (+470%) even after the dev sold $360k worth of the token in one clip

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $BAR (+35%, $13M market cap, ETH)
• $SCF (+30%, $98M market cap, SOL) 
• $AURA (+26%, $54M market cap, SOL)
• $FWOG (+21%, $40M market cap, SOL)
• $SC (+25%, $26M market cap, SOL)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• The Art Pass (244%, 0.1 ETH Floor)
• Early Retired Cats (130%, 0.3 ETH)
• Infinigods - The Elder Gods (32%, 0.12 ETH)
• Infinigods (22%, 0.16 ETH)
• Sproto Gremlins (15%, 0.67 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is another slower day of mints to end the week.

If MAGA Cousins are related to the other Cousins NFT that took off on Solana, it may be one to watch today.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Amber Vittoria - It'll Come to Me (9:00 a.m. ET)
• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Maga Cousins (11:00 a.m. ET)
• KOBO (12:30 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.