Morning Minute | The Next Fidenza?

TylerD's Market Summary

Winds of Yawanawa are separating themselves from the pack in the digital art sector after a blow off weekend. Is this just the beginning? Plus catch up on the weekend market action.

💨 Winds of Yawanawa Soar

There are murmurs that the NFT market is turning bullish again.

While there may not be widespread evidence to support that claim just yet, there are certainly some local instances.

Example #1 - Winds of Yawanawa.

After an incredible 5-day reveal event last week, Refik Anadol's darling project soared 70% on Sunday to a whopping 13.57 ETH floor.

That's a +100% gain on the week.

For some perspective, there are only 5 art projects on the wgmi.io board above 13.57 ETH and only 3 Art Blocks Curated projects hold higher floors (Fidenza, Ringers, Elevated Deconstruction).

It's a big deal.

Rarity and aesthetics are starting to carry a premium as well, with 7 sales of 20 ETH or higher (50% over floor).

Now we see if fomo kicks in from those on the sidelines to drive this higher, or if we see a cool off period as metadata gets added today.

NFT Market Overview

Now for a quick look at broader price action.

Here is a quick rundown of the notable floors and their 7-day price changes:

• Fidenza: 50 ETH (even)
• CryptoPunks: 44.95 ETH (-1%)
• Ringers: 29.25 ETH (even)
• BAYC: 24.97 ETH (-3%)
• Gazers: 13.5 ETH (-4%)
• Chromie Squiggle: 9.2 ETH (-3%)
• Grifters: 8.6 ETH (-4%)
• Pudgy Penguins: 5.47 ETH (+11%)
• MAYC: 4.84 ETH (-4%)
• Azuki: 4.1 ETH (-2%)
• PROOF: 3.35 ETH (-1%)
• Captainz: 3.4 ETH (+1%)
• DeGods: 3.23 (+1%)
• Otherside Koda: 2.72 ETH (-14%)
• Milady: 1.68 ETH (-9%)
• y00ts: 0.77 ETH (even)

So it was mostly chop or slight decline on the week for most of the board.

Pudgy Penguins seem to have shaken off the Luca fud from the prior weekend and focus is back on toys and their cookie launch.

It was notable to see the art projects all in red with Winds of Yawanawa soaring - a sign that Refik's success is more due to him and his project than a broader market trend.

y00ts are on the list now after their bridge to ETH officially opened (with 6,200+ already making the journey), though price action hasn't been inspiring.

And Milady season - well it may be over.

A few other stories to watch headed into this week:

Gutter Cat Gang has soared 150% to a 1.3 ETH floor after their new owner jolted life into the project and community. His continued media tour and additional insights in to his plans will likely play a big part in near term price action.

Flooring Protocol is officially live, incentivizing providing liquidity for PFP collections. It seems to be "Fractional 2.0" with more tokenomics and incentives, but some whales (i.e. Dingaling) seem to be excited. We will see the near term market impact this week.

👥 Friend Tech Trend Tracker

The Friend Tech market sees continued decline in trading volume and usage, yet keys are holding up while TVL remains steady. 

But it faces its biggest test from competition yet with several new joiners and Stars Arena re-starting this week.

Here are some of the core Friend Tech metrics for 10/9 and their day-over-day change:

• Return users: 4,430 -> 3,757 (-15%)
• Daily Buy volume: $1.2M -> $0.89M (-26%) 
• Total Volume: $2.68M -> $1.96M (-27%)
• TVL: $43.8M -> $44.17M (+1%)
• Highest key: Vombatus 8.33 -> 8.33 (even)

*TVL in ETH terms 27,920 -> 27,929 ETH (even)

Regarding the airdrop from Friday:

• Average points down to ~60/ETH, though outliers still getting 75-100/ETH (according to @0xCaptainLevi's quant)
• Data shows that portfolio value, holder count and holding count still dominate the formula
• The team delivered just 3.3M points on the week, down from 4.08M last week and the lowest total of the past 6 weeks
• Levi is top points earner at 32,472

Overall the lower points seemed to drive some disappointment but no major capitulation, at least yet.

In other SocialFI news:

• StarsArena is set to re-launch this week, supposedly live yesterday (though it seems the app is down) with trading going live post-audit
• New Bitcoin City saw its TVL 4x on the week, now over $1.1M
• At least 3 other SocialFI apps are live or going live soon - TurnUp, Tomo and GMIO from Keungz

The SocialFI wave is clearly here, now we see if FriendTech can hold on to its commanding lead or start to bleed marketshare.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Trading volume came in at $5.9M (3,700 ETH) on Sunday, while the leaderboard was very mixed
• Winds of Yawanawa led top movers, up 70% on the day (described above), with Machine Hallucinations and Distance each popping 40% too
• Yuga added 150k $APE to the HV-MTL prize pool after widespread complaints about the disparity in $APE spent in-game vs rewards
• NFTfi made a major protocol upgrade, adding multi-year loans, refinancing, pro rata loans and more
• The y00ts bridge to ETH officially opened with over 6,200 moving already
• DraftKings Reignmakers finished 5th on the week in overall NFT trading volume with $2.9M, behind DMarket, BAYC, Gods Unchained and Winds of Yawanawa 

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• The crypto market jumped on Sunday; BTC +3.3% at $27,730; ETH +1.75% at $1,580; SOL +5% at $23.10
• MetaMask was briefly removed from the Apple app store over the weekend before being re-added
• The Sandbox partnered with Sandsoft Gaming, hoping to bolster web3 gaming in Saudi Arabia

🚀 NFT Total Volume

• BAYC (1,008 ETH, 24.97 ETH Floor)
• Winds of Yawanawa (877 ETH, 13.57 ETH)
• MAYC (273 ETH, 4.84 ETH)
• DeGods (249 ETH, 3.21 ETH)
• Pudgy Penguins (145 ETH, 5.45 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase

• Winds of Yawanawa (70%, 13.57 ETH Floor)
• Machine Hallucinations (43%, 1.24 ETH)
• Distance by William Mapan (41%, 2.4 ETH)
• Lost Miners (39%, 0.23 ETH)
• Gutter Cat Gang (29%, 1.29 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is a slower start to the week but a few key events to watch.

First, Memes by 6529 is back for its Season 5, kicking off with Miss Al Simpson as the artist.

Then Refik is set to reveal the metadata for Winds of Yawanawa in the likely highlight of the day - expect some big demand for rares after this weekend's action.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Michelin 3xplorers (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Winds of Yawanawa - metadata reveal (TBD)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.