Morning Minute | The NFT Super Bowl Preview
GM!
Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints:
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TylerD's Market Summary
The "biggest" free mint ever, live during the Super Bowl. Super burn Sunday.
The Super Bowl is set to be a massive day for NFTs - will it live up to the hype?
🐉 Digis Go to the Super Bowl
The biggest story of the NFT Super Bowl is the $6.5M commercial from Gabe Leydon and the DigiDaigaku team.
The highly anticipated ad will feature a QR code enabling those with fast-fingers to apply to mint a DigiDaigaku Dragon - the next collection in this growing gaming ecosystem.
This commercial will provide the biggest mass reach any NFT project has had to date.
But will it pay off? What should we expect out of the Dragons?
By The Numbers
The Dragons are expected to be a 10,000 supply collection, bigger than most previous sets in this ecosystem.
Let's take a quick look at the existing PFPs:
- DigiDaigaku Genesis: 2022 supply, 9.3 ETH floor
- Heroes: 1908 supply, 2.39 ETH floor
- Dark Spirits: 2022 supply, 4.7 ETH floor
- Super Villains: 1937 supply, 1.5 ETH floor
- Masked Villains: 8565 supply, 0.33 ETH floor
The ecosystem has certainly grown quickly, from the Digi Genesis free mint back in August '22.
Predicting the Dragons price action, my gut says it comes out near the Masked Villains, in that 0.3-0.5 ETH range.
I've got concerns that this ecosystem is growing too quickly now and does not have the liquidity to support all these new NFTs.
But Gabe is the ultimate wild card, and perhaps his 793k followers will have something to say about that.
For those who want to dig in deeper to the DigiDaigaku ecosystem, check out our guide.
🔥 Super Burn Sunday
The other major event taking place this Sunday is the burn window opening up for Jack Butcher's Checks project.
The market has been a roller coaster ever since Jack broke the burning news, with the floor immediately running from 2 ETH to 2.4, before falling back to 1.8 and consolidating in that 1.8-2 ETH range.
There are some concerns out there around how liquidity will look post-burn, likely driving some trepidation in the market.
But there are some interesting burn mechanics to consider.
How Will the Burn Work
We are starting with 16,031 Checks in the "Checks - VV Edition" collection.
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Checks VV - Edition will be burned for Checks - VV Original.
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Checks - VV Original will enable the multiple burns (i.e. 2-for-1 80 Check grids to get 1 40 Check grid).
So there will be 2 collections post-burn.
A few notable takeaways:
- The first burn for Checks - VV Originals will create unique, filterable onchain artwork for each NFT.
- This means there will be a rare lotto as unique designs are created, turning this collection into a true "NFT" collection versus a set of editions.
This rare lotto makes the price action even more interesting ahead of the burn and after.
Get your popcorn ready.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
Several headlines from a very busy day in the NFT market:
- The NFT market trading volume fell ~20% to 22,000 ETH on the day (though still showing an uptrend), with just 3 collections seeing 1k+ ETH
- OnChainMonkeys announce they're heading to Bitcoin and joining the Ordinals movement (floor soars 250%+ before settling at 1.6 ETH)
- Other ETH NFT projects race to make announcements regarding moves to Bitcoin following OCM, including Purrnelopes and Tiny Dinos
- Yuga Labs delays Dookey Dash score validation, "The Key" award will now wait until Feb. 15; Lick the Toad now set for 2/22 and The Summoning for 3/8 (Sewer Passes at 2.2 ETH floor)
- In art news: Des Lucrece's latest free generative mint "Defy Mosaics" opens at 0.8 ETH in first 12 hours of trading, and "A Fundamental Dispute" by 7x's in its first day from 0.2 ETH to 1.4 ETH overnight
- Wolf Game ships updates improving game play, sees brief surge in volume
- Rug Radio team completes their mint for Cory Van Lew-designed "Faces of Web3", floor holds at 0.11 ETH
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- SEC comes after Kraken staking, prompting Kraken to shut down its crypto staking program; crypto falls on the news, with Bitcoin at $21,800 (-4%) and ETH at $1,540 (-5.7%)
- Reddit users mint over 1M NFTs in new Super Bowl collection, total holders now at 6.5M with $12M in total sales
- BAYC co-founder Wylie Aronow pens detailed letter addressing racist allegations and providing more background on several issues
- NBA Top Shot is going mobile, rolling out a new app via TestFlight to a select group of users
- Web3 music platform Vault raised $4M to further expand its "Digital Musical Collectible (DMC)" format and continue connecting fans with their favorite artists
🚀 NFT Total Volume
- Pudgy Penguins (1,378 ETH, 5.2 ETH Floor)
- MAYC (1,234 ETH, 15.15 ETH)
- Otherdeeds (1,020 ETH, 1.65 ETH)
- Clone X (687 ETH, 4.63 ETH)
- Checks (838 ETH, 1.8 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
- OnChainMonkeys (20%, 1.6 ETH Floor)
- Bitcoinorb (90%, 0.37 ETH)
- Ordinal Shards (89%, 3.75 ETH)
- 0n1 Force (10%, 1.2 ETH)
- The Weirdo Ghost Gang (39%, 0.54 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today is a slower day of new drops, with the standard Meme card and Art Blocks drops on the docket.
Wednesday's AB drop had some nice returns for minters, so expect a bit more attention there today.
Memes have been in a steep downtrend as traders seemingly lose interest, so today's card likely opens below 0.5 unless it's a huge name artist and/or low supply.
- Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
- Little Pecker (12:00 p.m. ET)
- Art Blocks Presents: Ad Extremum Terrae by uMathA (1:00 p.m. ET)
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.
