Morning Minute | Bitcoin Falls 10% on ETF Rejection Report

TylerD's Market Summary

It has since recovered, but was this a glimpse of price action on a true rejection? Plus catch up on the NodeMonkes rise to mainstream.

📉 BTC Falls on (Unsubstantiated) ETF Concerns

It looked like the sky was falling in the crypto markets Wednesday morning.

Around 7 am ET, the price of BTC had rapidly fallen from ~$45k to $41.5k in a matter of minutes.

For those watching live, it wasn't clear a bottom was in sight.

The BTC dip ended up dragging most of the crypto market down with it. So why did it happen?

What Happened?

On Wednesday morning the price of BTC briefly dipped to $40,800 before recovering (it's now back over $43k).

The flash dip caused nearly $560M in liquidations, the highest total in 6+ months.

It seemingly started with the publication of a report from Singapore-based Matrixport which forecasted that the SEC would reject the BTC spot ETF applications, something many had considered a "done deal."

As the day went on and panic subdued, it seemed less and less likely that the Matrixport prediction was true.

Eric Balchanus, an ETF analyst for over 15 years, shared early that he had heard "nothing to indicate anything but approval" on the ETFs.

He went on to repost a report that the SEC was holding meetings with Nasdqa, CBOE and NYSE to finalize comments on the forms submitted by the Spot ETF issuers, something he said "you prob don't do if you going to deny or delay" the ETFS.

So it seems the ETF concerns from Matrixport are fairly unfounded, based on opinions of the experts.

And news broke later in the day that even more major players are looking to get in the ETF game, with Goldman Sachs looking to play a role with the BlackRock ETF.

Then why did the price crash so hard?

Leverage.

Leverage in the crypto market had reached very high levels prior to this report, evidenced by funding rates above 50% (a sign that the market was lopsided long).

Many are pointing to the liquidation flush as the true driver of the fast crash and recovery, with the ETF report simply what lit the match.

The takeaways?

Be careful with leverage. And the ETFs are still very much on the table.

🚀 NodeMonkes Soar to ATH on Bitcoin

The ETF fud from yesterday morning didn't stop one BTC NFT collection from pumping.

The new darling of the Bitcoin Ordinals NFT scene, NodeMonkes, reached a new ATH overnight at 0.26 BTC.

It has since retraced a bit, holding at 0.24 BTC, but one thing seems clear - this collection has put itself on the map.

What Happened?

NodeMonkes have dominated volume since they began trading last Friday.

They did 143 BTC volume yesterday and have seen a whopping 735 BTC in their first 5.5 days of trading.

That's $6.18M on the day and $31.8M in total.

The high trading volume has sent the floor basically up only, with only 1 real pullback in price action (from 0.19 to 0.12) so far. 

At 0.24 BTC, the floor is $10,380 or 4.65 ETH. It's an 8x from the 0.03 BTC mint price and doesn't seem to be slowing down.

But it's not just traders buying floors. Collectors seem to be stepping in, evidenced by rare and mid-tier sales.

The NodeMonkes have several traits that pay homage to CryptoPunks, Bored Apes and other top-end NFT collections.

Their Alien trait has been the most coveted, with sales ranging in the 2-3 BTC range and the current floor at 6 BTC.

Hoodies, always popular in PFP collections, have steamed to 0.58 BTC floor. And Gold body Monkes have risen to 1.25 BTC.

We haven't seen a collection with this degree of above-floor sales in well over a year, and perhaps not since the Azuki/Moonbirds era of early 2022.

Where Do The Monkes Stack Up?

NFT Stats shared some interesting data earlier this morning.

By floor market cap, NodeMonkes have already reached the #7 spot in PFP rankings.

Current rankings:

• Punks at $1.25B (55.69 ETH)
• BAYC at $603M (26.78 ETH)
• MAYC at $227M (5.05 ETH)
• Pudgy Penguins at $214M (10.78 ETH)
• Mad Lads at $176M (175 SOL or 7.7 ETH)
• Azuki at $140M (6.19 ETH)
• NodeMonkes at $103M (0.24 BTC or 4.65 ETH)
• Tensorians at $100M (99 SOL or 4.37 ETH)
• BTC Frogs at $98M (0.216 BTC or 4.19 ETH)
• Captainz at $90M (4.2 ETH)

So NodeMonkes are 7th in MC and 6th in floor price (MAYC is 3rd but a 20k set vs 10k).

It's also very interesting to note that 4 of the top 10 are outside of ETH, with BTC having 2 spots and SOL having 2 spots.

A sign of the times.

So why are these doing so well early?

It seems like a combination of:

• good traits
• a "new" non-derivative high-effort PFP project on Bitcoin where many want exposure
• the early inscriptions (the team inscribed in February and waited til Dec to deploy)
• the collectors buying in and touting (many ETH natives and taste makers like Bharat Krymo)

We will see soon how much staying power the Monkes have. Regardless, it's been a massive short term win for all minters.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH trading volume crept up to $25.8M on Wednesday, though leaders were mixed on the day
• Skyborne Nexian Gems and Doodles led notable top movers, up 9% and 12% respectively; DigiDaigaku +24% to 4.8 ETH
• y00ts were swept from 0.57 to 0.75 and then dumped all the way back down, all tied to the actions of 1 farmer (exposing farming nature of ETH NFTs right now
• NodeMonkes led action on BTC with 142 BTC, followed by OPIUM's new expansion set Bitcoin Puppets which ran ~10x from mint to 0.0097 BTC
• Froganas once again led volume on Solana, though falling 26% to 11.3 SOL; meanwhile Mad Lads spiked 17% to 179 SOL and Tensors jumped 3% to 99
• Reboot announced ACK, Batzdu, and Bryan Brinkman as Cultural Collaborators with more expected to be announced in the coming days
• Jack Butcher celebrated Checks' 1-year birthday with a "One Year of Checks" card that users can sign with their crypto wallets (while also hinting at an Ordinals project to come)

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors rebounded after yesterday's major dip; BTC at $43,250; ETH at $2,230; SOL -17% at $98.40; SEI outperformed amidst the blood, +16% to $0.78
• Memecoins have rebounded along with majors, with BONK +7% and WIF +24%
• Binance announced they invested in $MEME from Memeland, briefly spiking from $0.023 to $0.03 before settling at $0.027; Captainz also got swept from 4 ETH to 4.2

🚀 NFT Total Volume (ETH)

• Pudgy Penguins (3,473 ETH, 10.8 ETH Floor)
• Azuki (3,275 ETH, 6.18 ETH)
• MAYC (1,493 ETH, 5.05 ETH)
• DeGods (1,185 ETH, 3.42 ETH)
• BAYC (1,177 ETH, 26.75 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Star Symphony (182%, 0.13 ETH Floor)
• DeFi Apes (39%, 0.52 ETH)
• San FranTokyo (25%, 0.79 ETH)
• DigiDaigaku (24%, 4.8 ETH)
• CyberKongz (21%, 1.05 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is another slower day of new mints with just a few on the list.

Expect most focus on secondary ahead of a bigger day of new drops tomorrow.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Shishi - Builder (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Mistershot - Neo-Pointillism (12:00 p.m. ET)
• The Black Void - I do not exist (12:30 p.m. ET)
• Pluid - Beta Launch (2:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.