Morning Minute | Runes Are Here - Now What?

TylerD's Market Summary

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🟠 Runes Debut with Mixed Reactions

This was arguably the most hyped Bitcoin halving to date.

The ETFs have brought new attention and money into the ecosystem, and of course Casey Rodarmor's highly anticipated Runes protocol going live with the halving.

But was it overhyped compared to what was delivered?

What Happened?

On Friday night around 8:15 pm ET, the Bitcoin halving took place and Runes launched.

Teams raced to etch the first 10 (and then the first 100) and some saw surprising success.

Some notable top runes that were etched:

• Runes 0: Uncommon Goods
• Rune 1: Z...FEHU...Z
• Rune 2: Decentralized (Prometheans)
• Rune 3: Dog Go To The Moon
• Rune 4: The Runix Token
• Rune 8: RSIC Genesis Rune
• Rune 13: Pups World Peace
• Rune 17: Magic Internet Money (WZRD)
• Rune 21: RSIC Season Two

So the CyberKongz team came in with the #2 runes in a big surprise. Leonidas and team got #3 for Runestones. And the RSIC team secured #8 (seemingly on purpose for the Asian tie-in) along with #21.

There is still a lot of mystery around some of the early runes including #1.

They also minted in different styles, with some operating as free mints and some having huge pre-mines. But given fee spikes, none of the mints were truly "free" and many minted at market caps between $6M and $30M.

Those who minted and sold early still saw some nice profits, and being in the trenches Friday night was the right place to be.

Market Response

A few clear winners have already seemingly been named.

• RSIC Genesis Rune has the top market cap at $305M (on $1.8M volume)
• Satoshi Nakamoto has seen the most volume with $40M+ on Gate.io, but fell 34% on Sunday to $103M mc
• Wanko Manko Runes is next up at $36M mc and then Meme Economics is the only other Rune over a $10M mc (at $11.8M)

You can track some of the leaders at OKX Runes Marketplace and trade them there or on Unisat.

Apparently the launch of a new 9-figure coin and some nice ROI on early mints wasn't enough for many who called the runes launch a "bust."

Those funding mostly point to lack of improvement over existing BRC-20 tech, lack of infrastructure and the high Bitcoin fees making for a bad trading experience.

And to be frank, that's mostly true. Right now.

But Runes are 2 days old and virtually none of the expected infrastructure has arrived yet. And it's still coming.

So likely best to be patient, and curious, for those who still view runes as a viable investment sector.

NFT Impact

The Ordinal PFP leaders had a great weekend, and a new "big 4" has separated from the pack:

• OMB at 0.52 BTC
• Quantum Cats at 0.469 BTC
• NodeMonkes at 0.412 BTC
• Bitcoin Puppets at 0.404 BTC

These 4 have been leading and jostling for position, and it seems that jostling will continue (especially given their varying supplies).

But the good news for holders is all those floors are up from weekend lows as many are already moving on from Runes and back to Ordinals (or perhaps cycling early gains back to Ordinals).

The pre-runes Ordinals had more of a rocky ride.

• Runestone dipped from 0.07 BTC to 0.035 after last night's snapshot for the $DOG airdrop (not a surprise, in fact it's holding up quite strong)
• RSIC dipped to 0.042 after its lotto happened at the halving (but also holding up strong due to Season 2)
• Rune Pups fell to 0.09 BTC as the PUPS token fell over the weekend
• Prometheans emerged as a new leader at 0.065 BTC after securing the #2 runes, though there are still open questions on when those runes will be delivered

So expect more volatility with this group.

RSIC was the first to complete its airdrop and reportedly spent at least 6 BTC doing so.

Do the other teams have this kind of money to execute the airdrop? We will see.

The other wild card for pre-runes and runes right now - Binance.

Last night they hinted at some new Bitcoin (i.e. runes) listings in a cryptic tweet.

Many interpreted it as a nod to the PUPS token being listed first, briefly sending PUPS as high as $60 (back to $45 now).

And that leads to a key next step for the runes and pre-runes leaders.

What Next?

For runes, the launch hype is starting to wear off and not many new mints are reaching escape velocity.

Interest is already dwindling and focus is likely to revert back to the existing leaders.

What will propel and cement early leaders?

CEX listings, and Binance is clearly ready to make a move.

Whatever gets listed first on Binance likely takes the early lead. It's just clear that the masses (and liquidity) want an easier trading experience that what currently exists for runes.

As that experience improves, expect more attention and perhaps more winners to emerge.

I expect the winning runes to outperform while many go to 0, which is not different from how the memecoin games goes on other blockchains.

I also expect rotation to Ordinals to happen this week and to continue, driving the next leg up.

Many were wondering if runes would take liquidity away from Ordinals, at least in the short term, and the answer seems to be "no" on that question.

With 4 clear winners, and a few feisty newcomers in Prometheans and Runemilios, expect more fireworks on Ordinals than Runes in the weeks to come.

But the runes leaders will have their day - that day may just be down the line.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the weekend in NFTs:

• Bitcoin led NFT trading volume with $11.6M on the day (+65%); ETH was next with $6.9M (+16%) and then Solana with $5.9M (+20%)
• Runestone led the BTC NFT board again with 189 BTC volume but fell 50% to 0.035 BTC post-snapshot; most Ordinals leaders were green
• OMB was the top notable winner, jumping to a 0.52 BTC floor and leading the PFPs; Quantum Cats next at 0.469, then Nodes at 0.412, Pups at 0.4
• Runemilio was the top gainer on the day, rallying 500% to 0.05 BTC
• RSIC held at 0.044 BTC after its Season 2 was confirmed, meaning the NFts will continue mining runes
• ETH NFT leaders were very mixed with BAYC -2%, Pudgy even, MAYC +15%, Milady -2% and DeGods +5%
• Sappy Seals and Pandora led top movers jumping 18% each
• An XCOPY "Last Selfie" edition of 10 sold for 277 ETH ($849,000) marking a new ATH for that edition
• Solana NFTs were red on the day; Mad Lads -3% at 100 SOL, Tensorians -1% at 15, SMB Gen 2 -13% at 46

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the weekend:

• Blast released its latest Blast Gold distributions on Friday along with a blog post explaining that active NFT and token communities may be rewarded next
• $PAC rebounded 25% after that Blast blog post, reaching nearly $0.09 at peak (now at 0.085)
• The Runestone snapshot for the $DOG runes airdrop happened on Sunday, though there is at least 1 more airdrop coming for holders
• Friend Tech announced its v2 will launch on April 29
• Arcade teased its upcoming Bitcoin integration again on Saturday

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are green this morning after a weekend rally; BTC +1.5% at $66,080; ETH +1.3% at $3,210; SOL +2% at $154
• Memecoin majors were mixed on the day; DOGE -1%, WIF -4%, PEPE +6%; GUMMY and POPCAT outperformed on Solana, up 75% and 40%
• Binance hinted at Bitcoin Runes being listed, using a face that many interpreted as a Bitcoin Puppet; PUPS soared XX%
• ethOS launched their version of the blockchain phone for ETH, which can be minted and redeemed on Base

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $GUMMY (+75%, $175M market cap, Solana)
• $FUNGI (+43%, $16M market cap, Base)
• $POPCAT (+40%, $300M market cap, Solana)
• $TOOKER (+33%, $80M market cap, Solana)
• $EPIK (+23%, $28M market cap, Solana)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• Sappy Seals (18%, 0.78 ETH Floor)
• Pandora (16%, 2.54 ETH)
• MAYC (15%, 2.33 ETH)
• BAKC (14%, 0.5 ETH)
• Imaginary Ones (10%, 1.15 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is a slow day of drops to start the week.

Expect Bitcoin drops to be slow for a bit until fees and runes hype settle down.

ETH has another art drop and a new meme card from Cemhah, and then a new PFP launching on Blast in Exo Spirits.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Wubbushi x Verse - Past Forward (2:00 p.m. ET)
• 0xfff - Honest Work (3:00 p.m. ET)
• Exo Spirits (3:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.