Preview: Art Blocks Playground "Rectangles"
Today's mint from Art Blocks OG and Chief Creative Officer Jeff Davis may be the single best ROI (return on investment) mint opportunity of the week. But the market knows it, and will likely be out in full force for the mint today.
Let's back up.
For starters, the project name is "Rectangles (for Herbert)" and is in the Art Blocks Playground set, as this is Jeff's eighth project. The simple and minimalist shape-based generative set is an ode to one of Jeff's very first algorithms. In his words, "Pick a number of rectangles, at varying sizes, and place them on a grid."
For this specific instance of the algorithm, the inputs include the use of four squares (three gray and one black), the first rectangle must be full size, and the black rectangle must be on top. The beauty of the algorithm, and its overarching goal, is "to examine what can arise from such a simple set of rules."
I'm very excited for my upcoming @artblocks_io release 'Rectangles (for Herbert)' as part of #TributeHerbertWFranke. A few notes about the project ⏬ pic.twitter.com/UGPMLx2omY— Jeff Davis (@jeffgdavis) October 4, 2022
The project is dedicated to Herbert W. Franke, described as a "pioneer of computer art" who passed away this summer. Several of the world's most-renowned generative artists have been submitting tributes, and "Rectangles..." will be the latest. Additionally, all proceeds from the auction will go to Franke's foundation "art meets science."
On that charity aspect, Jeff had this to say in his discord:
"Since this project is intended for charity with all of my minting proceeds going to the Herbert W. Franke tribute, I decided to keep a somewhat robust project size and offer minting for a reasonable fixed price. The idea is to make contributing to the HWF cause accessible for those who would like to participate, and then you receive an artwork from me as a small gift to say thank you for your donation."
Background on Jeff Davis
For some quick background on Jeff, which is important to understand in anticipating market action, he has been involved with Art Blocks since the very beginning, launching his first project "Construction Token" on day 0 alongside Snowfro's "Chromie Squiggles" and DCA's "Genesis". He has since gone on to become the CCO of Art Blocks, staying active in the company's growth, while also launching several generative art projects along the way.
With eight projects launched and a ninth on the way, he is the single most prolific artist in the Art Blocks ecosystem. A quick view of those projects, in chronological order:
- Construction Token: 8.69 ETH floor, 500 supply
- View Card: 60 ETH floor, 41 supply
- Color Study: 0.59 ETH floor, 2,000 supply
- Rhythm: 2 ETH floor, 334 supply
- Portal: 22 ETH floor, 10 supply
- Neighborhood: 0.43 ETH floor, 312 supply
- Reflection: 2.9 ETH floor, 100 supply
- Variant Plan: 2 ETH floor, 199 supply
Clearly, Jeff has been a major contributor to Art Blocks. His generative art history spans pre-Art Blocks though, and several of his earlier pieces are also available on SuperRare. Some are very similar in nature to Rectangles, notably the "Abstract Token" series, which may very well be a primary source of inspiration for this algorithm.
Market Analysis and Predictions
The success of Wednesday's Curated drop "Fontana" is a game-changer for the Rectangles mint. Given Jeff's pedigree, this was always going to be a high-profile mint with some strong attention - but after Fontana did a ~5x from mint since Wednesday, all the botters will be out in full force for this one.
Jeff has opted to use a fixed-price style mint, at 0.1 ETH - about as cheap as Art Blocks mints get. With such a low mint price, there is near zero risk for minters and thus this will be a full-on gas war. If you want to mint one of these on the primary, toggle that gas high and fire on the gun. Otherwise, just go ahead and wait for the secondary market.
The price target for this set is likely in the 0.5-0.8 ETH range, using some market cap math based on his prior sets. But there are a few X factors that could play out and impact this target up or down.
On the bull case side, the ode and resemblance to some of Jeff's earliest generative work may give this a bump in value and may very well draw more attention from true collectors. If this pans out, and the mint is not overly-botted, the upside could approach 1+ ETH.
From a bear perspective, almost any time botters and flippers overrun a mint, it ends poorly - at least in the short term. If the botters dominate this one, and 50+ percent of the supply is listed within 30 minutes of the mint, expect secondary action to dry up as collectors will sit on their hands and come back in two to three weeks. In this scenario, the floor probably settles around 0.2-0.3 ETH.
With all of that said, we are enjoying a nice wave of generative art momentum right now, started by Tyler Hobbs and QQL last week and carried forward by Harvey Rayner and his Fontana drop this week. Art is fun again. Hopefully, that momentum can carry through today!
The mint for the 500 supply Rectangles (for Herbert) project will start at 1 p.m. ET today, on the Art Blocks website.