NFT Roundtable | Blur-ish or Bearish?

Welcome to the Weekly NFT Roundtable, where members of the Lucky Trader team weigh in on some of the most pressing questions, news, and events in the web3 space.

The commentary below is purely opinion —not financial advice!

Recommended Reading:

• Will the $BLUR airdrop save NFTs? | BLUR Sets the Stage
• Braindrops Surges
• DigiDaigaku Commercial: Boom or Bust?

Blurred Lines 💸

Question 1: All eyes were on Tuesday’s launch of the $BLUR token, after months of airdrops and reward farming. Are you feeling Blurish or Bearish on the token, and what do you think the impact will be on the broader space?

Jason: Putting more disposable buying power in the hands of the top NFT traders is likely bullish for the space short-term, but I’m definitely not “blurish.” The token price continues to trend lower, and the airdrop farming stops eventually, even with additional ponz… I mean seasons. The total supply of BLUR is 3 billion, and only 360 million is currently out in the circulating supply. Farm away, but don’t get caught without a seat when the music stops. Long-term the smart traders will cash out their airdrops or trade for “blue chips” like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes. 

Logie: I’m so lame, so I’m going to abstain from providing a take on token price. I literally have no clue where the price is going. But overall, I am blurrish on $BLUR’s impact on web3. This rollout, and the continued success of Blur should only continue to push the other brands in the space to 1) better align user incentives and 2) provide better experiences.

While we’ve been begging for others to challenge OpenSea’s monopoly on trading for a while, and some have tried and probably failed (sorry, LooksRare), it finally feels like Rocky finally stepped into the ring. I understand the irony of referencing Rocky, a fictional American fighter, on the heels of the airdropping of magical internet money that was not claimable for Americans.

Ghost: I am very Blurish! While I think some may look at this as another random airdrop, a few notable differences here: 

• Other examples of NFT coin airdrops (LOOKS, SOS, X2Y2) dropped the coin first and then hoped a community would build. Blur built a platform that is actually the preferred destination for a lot of traders... Then rewarded their activity and loyalty. 
  
  
• BLUR has an idea map, which includes some very interesting potential future implementations. This isn’t just your average shitcoin with zero utility — like $APE, I think there is more than meets the eye. Plus, if BLUR continues to gain market share and becomes the premier destination to trade NFTs, will institutions see this coin as a way to gain exposure to the NFT market as a whole? 

Tyler: I am max Blurish! Piggybacking on what Ghost said, Blur is not Looks or X2Y2. People actually choose to trade on Blur over the competitors - I know I do. They have Zeneca running the Foundation now and as an advisor, Pacman is super sharp, and they clearly have a lot in the pipeline. My current take is the token trades more like $APE than $LOOKS.

With that said, I’m not quite as bullish on the NFT market action sustaining. We got the immediate 20%-30% bump right out of the gate, but now we’re just back to where we were a few weeks ago. We need to see some big announcements, innovations, etc., especially out of the PFP sector, to avoid a slow bleed out in the weeks to come.

Reign of the Brain 🧠

Question 2: AI-generated art platform Braindrops is having a moment. On the heels of the massive success of artist Roope Rainisto’s “Life in West America,” the platform’s older collections have surged, led by Claire Silver’s genesis at an 11 ETH floor. Is this a flash in the pan, or is AI-generated art here to stay, and will Braindrops emerge as the ‘Art Blocks’ of that sector?

Jason: I have no idea, but I hope Braindrops continues to succeed in this space. Justin Trimble seems like a nice person, and the platform has been around and done a lot of good for artists. It’s nice to see the uptick in attention and trading volume. If I’m trading it, I’ll just tail Tyler.

Logie: I think AI art is here to stay, but I’m not certain I’m ready to deem Braindrops the “Art Blocks” of that sector. Claire Silver has been leading the AI charge for quite some time and her connection to Braindrops (in conjunction with the success of Rainisto’s drop) may just be a happy confluence of events. Throw in the Blur stimulus, and money finds momentum. Unlike Art Blocks, Braindrops has provided incentives to full set “day one” holders, which may help create a “floor” for notable collections, but I wouldn’t be blindly buying assuming we’re hitting an Art Blocks Summer-like event. 

Ghost: This run is painful for me, as I was extremely early into Braindrops and basically tax-loss harvested all of them during the bear market. I am a big fan of AI, and while I think many are generally dismissive of the PFP-type AI projects that we’ve seen put on the market, curated drops from established artists show off their true potential. And Braindrops has done a great job of leading the way — I’m happy that the fantastic “Life in West America” collection from Roope Rainisto was able to be a catalyst for getting the market’s attention on the broader works there. 

Tyler: Unlike Logan, I’m ready to blindly buy into Braindrops ahead of an Art Blocks Summer ‘21-like-event. It’s the perfect setup right now. 

• Look at the Google Trends for “AI” right now - it’s up only. Traders are looking for the “next meta” and the AI art sector is an obvious choice.
• Life in West America is the perfect catalyst for an overall leg-up for the entire ecosystem (similar to what Fidenza did for AB), widely acclaimed by collectors and newcomers
• The entire supply of Braindrops is 9,861 - that’s less than just Chromie Squiggles

I am here to submit to our robot overlords and become a Braindrops maxi ASAP.

Check Yourself ✅

Question 3: Checks by Jack Butcher pulled back hard following the ‘Super Burn Sunday’ launch, despite no issues and several major collectors already pushing for the coveted Black Check. Has the attention moved on from Checks, or is this just a pullback in the early days of the project?

Jason: I said it last week, and I’ll say it again. Value is derived over time, especially in this space. Checks will have to continue to generate new hype cycles, show holders they can continue to expect some kind of value every few weeks or months, and capture and hold this new attention economy. It’s a difficult task, but it can be done. And if it is done right, Yuga Labs has shown the upside. It can’t just rely on the casino effect, though. 

Logie: Checks has the benefit of many additional derivatives hoping to push the “checks-meta” forward alongside the genesis collection, but it does feel like attention has started to drift. It doesn’t matter if you execute impeccably or not, it’s the anticipation of events that drives attention and price. Once you accomplish something (in this example, the burn works!) there’s less of a reason to talk about the project. Less talking = less trading = lower prices. 

Ghost: While I am certainly disappointed at the price action on Checks, I still do think the collection will be a long-term winner. While hype and speculation may have died down, I think the art (and now the process of creating the art through burning) has struck a chord with many collectors. As the collection continues to become more and more pared down and curated, I think we’ll eventually see a massive comeback — but in the short term, there might be more pain to come. 

Tyler: I am going with healthy pullback. The project got way too overheated ahead of the burn, and of course could not sustain those levels (I say after buying the top). It’s back to more reasonable levels now and is an easier entry.

With that said, two things need to happen for Checks to leg up - Jack will need to pull a few tricks out of his sleeve to keep attention, and we need to see a major play from the community (a whale, a DAO, etc.) to make a move on the Black Check. If neither of those happen, we may be in chop or slow decline mode for the foreseeable future.

Super Bowl Hangover 😳

Question 4: Speaking of the Super Bowl — the DigiDaigaku commercial ran this weekend, evoking some very polarizing reactions within the space. What are your thoughts on the ad, and was this a net positive or negative for the NFT space?

Jason: This “ad” was a major waste of money and requires a cringe-worthy level of ego to link a QR code to a personal Twitter account. Net negative for the space. That’s all I’ll say. 

Logie: I actually think the ad was net-neutral. Those in the space clearly saw it as a flop (me too). But outside of the existing web3 audience, I think it’s highly doubtful that anyone even let it register. It was over in the blink of an eye, and it made no sense if you weren’t expecting it. Seems like a big, /shrug and move on moment.

Ghost: While I don’t see this being negative for the space (as Logie mentioned, I doubt anyone outside of the space gave it a second thought) — it was a huge missed opportunity for a positive moment. Regardless of your sentiment on Gabe’s tactics, bringing those who missed out on the drop (pretty much everyone) to his personal Twitter page over a polished landing page (or anything less scammy-looking) seems like a huge miss. While he gained a lot of followers and can claim an instant sell out, it certainly seems like there were better ways to achieve the same results. 

Tyler: The market does not lie - it was a letdown. Until Gabe and team actually prove they can reach the masses, it’s all just hype, speculation, and engagement farming. And with thousands of new NFTs in the Digi ecosystem, the rubber will meet the road here soon. New buyers or more bleeding.

Meet the Roundtable:

Ghost: Ghost is an NFT analyst at Lucky Trader. He has been in crypto since 2017, and entered the NFT space via NBA Top Shot in January of 2021 before minting Bored Apes and degenning into the broader market. 

Tyler: Tyler is a high-volume NFT trader, having reached the top 100 in NFT sales revenue using NFTBank’s rankings, a Pengu maxi (in Luca we trust), and a writer for Lucky Trader. Tyler’s writing spans market analysis, news breakdowns, project ecosystem overviews, and web3 opinion pieces.

Logie: Logan is a content lead at Lucky Trader and is best known for selling every good NFT far too early. He also maintains an irrational exuberance for clay-based NFTs. 

Jason: Jason is an NFT lead at Lucky Trader. He has been involved in the NFT space since CryptoKitties in late 2017, and, like most, he lost a lot of money on Top Shot in early 2021. But nevertheless, he persists (with his Series 1 Legendary From The Top LeBron James Block).