Weekly NFT Preview | Moonbirds, VeeFriends 2 and Big Questions

The NFT bull market excitement from last week has paused a bit the last few days, as liquidity has dropped and floors are starting to fall. But this is potentially tied to the pending mega-drop for Moonbirds, whose launch may single-handedly determine the direction of the NFT market in the next few weeks and months.

Starting with a brief macro recap, the 7-day trailing average of daily OpenSea volume is at $103.5MM/day which meets the "bull market" threshold over that $100MM/day level. The weekend was slow though, comparatively, as daily volumes were $78.6MM and $79.2MM for Saturday and Sunday. And Monday seems to be off to a very slow start.

This has impacted the PFP markets, as only five of the top 20 projects by floor price are in the green in the last seven days. The primary winners are MAYC up 8 percent to 26.7 ETH floor, MetaHeroes up 6 percent to 4.7 ETH and FLUF up 21 percent to 3.4 ETH. The losers are led by Azuki, down 25 percent to 20 ETH floor after its big run up last weekend, Doodles down 17 percent to 14 ETH floor and VeeFriends down 16 percent to 12.5 ETH.

The crypto market certainly hasn't helped, as BTC and ETH dropped four percent and six percent respectively over night, which is likely contributing to the NFT selloff. Most alt coins are down even more, though $APE has held strong at $10.80 which seems to be near its local bottom.

Despite the bearish sentiment to start the week, this could very well be one of the defining weeks of 2022 for the NFT market pending how certain drops go over the next few days. There are known project mints coming and several unknowns, which will be covered in this post as "Knowns" and "Unknowns." The known events alone are enough for a potential blowoff week, but if a few of these unknowns materialize this week, the NFT market could really explode.

Knowns:

• Moonbirds drop Saturday 4/16 (raffle results Friday 4/15)
• VeeFriends Series 2 (Friends List opens 4/12)

Unknowns:

• Cooltopia launch
• Beanz reveal
• MNLTH reveal
• Doodles announcement
• Yuga Land announcement

Moonbirds Launch and Raffle Impact 

Moonbirds week is finally here, and it has already had a tremendous impact on the NFT market.

The team made the tough decision last week to switch to a raffle, which required holding 2.5 ETH in the entrant's wallet. This seems to have greatly impacted market liquidity over the weekend, with these funds "tied up" in raffle entries.

The raffle ticket volume isn't known yet, but estimates are anywhere from 50K to 120K entrants. That equates to a range of 125K ETH and 300k ETH potentially "locked" in preparation for the raffle results.

The team did announce late Sunday that entrants do not need to keep the 2.5 ETH in the wallet until the results are announced Friday, but it seems most have likely earmarked those funds for Moonbirds already, and given short term bearish conditions, most traders likely won't risk the funds ahead of thee results announcement. 

This seems to be the biggest driver in the liquidity drain from this weekend. But what happens when the raffle results are announced? It could very well be a huge windfall of ETH hitting the market on Friday at noon ET, (for those that lost) and the projects with floor under 2.5 could be the biggest winners (i.e. Cool Pets!). Regardless of winners, expect the raffle results to be a major event to kickstart the weekend.

Beyond the raffle results, the mint launch on Saturday at noon ET will be a mega-liquidity event and will likely be the focus of the weekend. Predictions for early floor price are anywhere from 7-10 ETH+ out of the gate, and this set will likely dominate the charts Saturday and Sunday. It is instant reveal as well, so expect rares to go early and for high prices.

How quickly these funds from Moonbirds flippers flow back to the rest of the NFT market will likely determine if the bull market run continues or most projects continue their bleeding.

VeeFriends Series 2 Debut

Though it has been outshined a bit by Moonbirds, the VeeFriends Series 2 launch from Gary Vee is another huge event and would be the spotlight of most weeks. The original VeeFriends has been one of the highest performing NFT projects of the past year or so and holds a 12.5 ETH floor. Gary Vee's book games managed to hit a 0.5 ETH floor on a 125k supply (pretty remarkable) and thus expectations are high for VeeFriends series 2.

The project will be comprised of 55,555 NFTs all priced at $995 (in ETH, roughly 0.35 ETH at time of writing). The details for the mint are as follows:

1. Friends List (32,000 Supply) | Date: 4/12/22
2. Series 1 Free Claim (10,255 Supply) | Date: 4/12/22
3. Public Mint (10,000 Supply) | Date: 4/25/22
4. 15 New Characters (3,300 Supply) | Date: 4/27/22

The reveal will not take place until all NFTs are minted, so early minters should expect to be patient. But given the relatively low mint price and success of other Gary Vee ecosystem projects, expect this to be a big liquidity magnet in the weeks to come.

Unknowns Hanging Over the Market

As hinted above, there are several pending reveals and/or announcements from major projects which could have drastic impacts on the NFT market this week. Here is a quick summary of each along with predictions for likelihood:

Azuki Beanz Reveal (80% likelihood)

Having debuted at the Azuki LA party on Mar. 31, the Beanz are now going on a 12 day pre-reveal window and the market is getting antsy. The team extended the window for those with Azukis locked in contracts to mint their Beanz to 4/14 at 2 AM EST, which likely means reveal will not be before then. But that does set up a potential late week reveal, which could also be a major beneficiary of the Moonbirds raffle results and will be a major liquidity event regardless.

Cooltopia Launch (66% likelihood)

The primary focus of the Cool Cats ecosystem, the much anticipated (and delayed) Cooltopia game has been in beta testing for weeks, and rumors are swirling that it will finally be ready for production this week. If this does take place, Cool Pets (currently 1.57 ETH floor) could be a big winner of the week, especially if the game announcement is close to the Moonbirds raffle results. 

Yuga Land Announcement (33% likelihood)

The clock is ticking for Yuga Land, promised for April 2022, and the market is hungry for news. The speculation of announcement this past weekend was enough to send $ape briefly above $12 (expectation for land sale to be priced solely in $ape) and the MAYC market has been one of the few to see green on the past week. Yuga is famous for dropping announcements on Fridays at 5 pm EST, which could send the overall BAYC ecosystem nuclear specially with the Moonbirds raffle "unlock" happening Friday as well.

Doodles Announcement (25% likelihood)

The rumor mill in Doodles world is swirling that there will be an announcement soon, likely tied to an airdrop or more utility for the space capsules. The Doodles caught some negative news, as the Azuki Beanz airdrop took the NFT world by storm in comparison to the space capsules (rightfully or wrongfully) but the team seems to want to make it up to the community. Expect any announcement to be a market mover for this widely loved project.

MNLTH Reveal (20% likelihood)

The hype just keeps building for the MNLTH reveal, and the number prediction threads are growing along with the hype. This reveal continues to be the most important event in the RTFKT/Nike NFT ecosystem, though the date seemingly keeps getting pushed back. There are no real indicators that the reveal will be this week, but if the team surprises everyone, expect this to receive major volume and the floor to be volatile.

Other Notable Events

There are a few other notable events from major project teams happening this week. Each of these projects (Wizards, Capsules and Gutter Cats) have cult followings and strong communities, so expect some attention and ETH flowing to these this week.

• Forgotten Runes "Beasts" drop on 4/12
• Capsule House Humans "Hatchening" on 4/14
• Gutter Cat Gang species 2 (rats) cloning on 4/14

Overall it's a very uncertain week with a lot of unknowns. Liquidity seems to be here but parked on the sidelines, but the crypto markets and stock markets are in high volatility and the macro picture could certainly impact NFTs here. But if a few dominoes fall in the right order, this could also be the biggest week in volume since January. One thing is certain - this is going to be a very important weekend for the near-term future of the NFT space.

Good luck out there, and enjoy the week!