Morning Minute | BTC Surges As ETFs Accumulate 3%

Morning Minute | BTC Surges As ETFs Accumulate 3%

TylerD's Market Summary

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๐Ÿ“ˆ BTC and SOL Surge, For Different Reasons

"We are so back. It's so over. We are so back."

The never-ending carousel of crypto-trader emotion seemingly swing by the week if not the day.

Sentiment was as high as ever as BTC hit $49k the day the BTC ETFs went live, then sunk to local lows as its price tumbled below $40k as "sell the news" prevailed.

Well now the "We are so back" crowd is regaining control. On Bitcoin and Solana.

BTC ETFs Accumulate 3% of Total Supply

Anyone who could see more than a few days out was screaming how bullish the BTC ETFs would be.

The largest hedge funds and investment firms in the world are building BTC positions and offering it to their clients.

Now, the data is becoming more clear, and price action is matching the narrative.

The cumulative BTC holdings of the top 6 BTC ETFs has already passed 3% of the circulating BTC supply

For reference, the ETFs have been live for, (checks notes), 2.5 weeks. And they've already accumulated over 3% of the supply.

Not surprisingly, BTC is up nearly 10% on the week, back up to $43,450.

The lesson, as always - stop sweating day-to-day price action and zoom out.

Over on Solana though, it might be a week to zoom-in, at least for a few days.

Jupiter's $JUP Reaches $7B In Futures Trading

Solana might be 1 day away from a once-in-a-cycle liquidity event.

The leading Solana DEX Jupiter, which has been challenging Uniswap as the leading DEX for all of crypto, is launching its $JUP token tomorrow Jan 31.

And it's been trading as high as $7B in futures markets (on Aevo).

As a quick reminder on Jupiter tokenomics:

  • 10B tokens in total
  • 50% Managed by Team & 50% Distributed to Community
  • Community receives 40% of tokens via 4 airdrops
  • 15-20% of tokens expected to circulate at first airdrop (10% community and 5% liquidity provision)

So, 1.5B-2B tokens will be hitting the market tomorrow.

And they're trading at $0.60-$0.70.

That means the Solana ecosystem is going to see a $600M-$700M cash injection tomorrow.

It puts the Blur airdrops to shame, and one would have to look back to Uniswap's airdrop to likely find a comp.

The question immediately becomes - where does that cash flow? To $SOL, to NFTs, to memecoins, or all of the above? Or perhaps some of it leaves Solana?

OSF made an interesting comparison to ETH/Uniswap yesterday, sharing:

46x multiple vs 11x multiple.

Something is undervalued."

Two things stand out. 1) Jupiter is valued as high as Uniswap already at launch and 2) it's ratio to Solana FDV is far lower than Uniswap to ETH.

The takeaway from this analogy - SOL looks ready to pop. And this Jupiter airdrop is the likely driver.

๐Ÿ’ก Magic Eden Introduces New Wallet

We have known the Magic Eden wallet was coming, and now it's finally here.

On Monday, Magic Eden introduced its new multi-chain wallet for public download and usage. 

The wallet supports BTC, ETH, SOL and Polygon and touts:

  • Instant cross-chain swaps
  • NFT portfolio management
  • Native Ordinals & BRC20 support
  • End to end rare sats management

The launch also comes with perks and incentives for use (because Magic Eden gets it):

  • Exclusive access to open editions from Degen Apes, Claynosaurz and BoDoggos
  • Boosted allowlist odds for Ink (hot upcoming Ordinals project)
  • 1.25x points multiplier for BTC lending platform Liquidium
  • Better odds for the Saturn airdrop on BTC 
  • Perks with Cryptoslam

It's a strong launch package.

A common question in the market right now though - why do we need another wallet?

Well, this one actually makes sense. Anyone who's been trading NFTs in the past 3 months in this new multi-chain NFT ecosystem understands the challenges.

Bridging and swapping from ETH to BTC or Solana takes time. Managing different wallets per each chain is cumbersome. 

Wallet management and security become more difficult.

Magic Eden's new wallets effectively solves all those problems.

No need for MetaMask on ETH, Xverse on BTC and Phantom on Sol - simply use the Magic Eden Wallet instead.

It's a strong pitch. 

Now we see how the market responds.

๐Ÿšš What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • ETH trading volume fell to $17.8M on Monday, becoming the lowest volume day of January; NFT leaders were mixed, led by Pudgy +5% back to 16.7 ETH
  • AltLayer Badges and Zokio led top movers on ETH, jumping 58% and 49% respectively
  • Sotheby's "Grails" auctions will begin closing at 2 pm ET today, with XCOPY's "CITIZENS!" piece leading at $110,000 Beeple's "TIME" piece with a $100k bid and ACK's "til death do us part" next at $48,000
  • RSIC led action on BTC with 20 BTC in trading volume and jumping 35% to 0.048 BTC; NodeMonkes at 0.173 floor and Puppets at 0.045
  • RSIC holders are now able to check their Runes balances on Ordiscan after a recent update from the team
  • Quantum Cats delayed their Whitelist mint until 12 pm ET on Thursday after their minting website failed on Monday; public sale will be at 5 pm ET, allowing for a longer minting window
  • Solana NFTs mostly chopped again on Monday with Froganas leading volume at 8.7 SOL, Mad Lads even at 184, Tensorians -1% at 81 and Crypto Undeads -6% at 8.5 after their first town hall
  • Bryan Johnson (known for his longevity tips and as founder of Blueprint) is sponsoring a free Drip Haus collectible on Solana
  • VeeFriends Burn Island Eruption 15 went live, offering an exclusive NBA All-Star Weekend experience for one lucky winner in exchange for burning BOOK GAMES NFTs

๐ŸŒŽ Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • Crypto majors are green this morning; BTC +3% at $43,450; ETH +2% at $2,315; SOL +6.3% at $102.50
  • TAO led Alt-L1s surging 21% to $434, with SEI (+12%) and SUI (+11%) also seeing big days
  • $WEN fell nearly 50% from high to $97M market cap, even after burning 27% of the supply
  • Mark Cuban said his favorite crypto projects are Polygon and Injective and that he's an investor in both during a Monday AMA on X
  • Dymension has redistributed their airdrop token allotments after the claim period ending, leading to a major boost for certain collections (Pudgy holders jump from ~640 to ~1,700)
  • Animoca Brands’ subsidiary Darewise Entertainment is collaborating with Deadfellaz DFZ Labs, integrating Deadfellaz into Life Beyond’s web3 ecosystem

๐Ÿš€ NFT Total Volume (ETH)

  • Pudgy Penguins (1,145 ETH, 16.7 ETH Floor)
  • Azuki (1,081 ETH, 6.88 ETH)
  • MAYC (1,079 ETH, 4.31 ETH)
  • DeGods (382 ETH, 2.89 ETH)
  • Lil Pudgy (371 ETH, 1.71 ETH)

๐Ÿ“ˆ NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

  • AltLayer OG Badge (58%, 2.91 ETH Floor)
  • Zokio (49%, 0.12 ETH)
  • KaijuKingz (43%, 0.16 ETH)
  • Keepers v2 (38%, 0.14 ETH)
  • Oh Ottie! (12%, 0.39 ETH)

๐Ÿ—“ Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is another slower day of new drops, especially with Quantum Cats now postponed til Thursday.

The highlight is likely Roope Rainisto's "SMILE" launching on Solana. The "Life in West America" creator (4.39 ETH floor) is launching his first solo project, with 5,000 pieces price at 0.2 SOL each.

Given the recent success of low-cost art on Solana, expect this to fly on primary.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor

  • Counterfeit x Eka Lestienne - Majesty (10:00 a.m. ET)
  • Stefano Contiero - Disconnected (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • Roope Rainisto - SMILE (2:00 p.m. ET)
  • P1A x SHILLR - SZN 2 Burn (6:00 p.m. ET)

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