Morning Minute | How Checks 300x'd in 30 Days

GM!

Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints:

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NFT Total Volume

NFT Floor Price Increase

NFT Floor Price Decrease

Upcoming NFT Mints

TylerD's Market Summary

Checks by Jack Butcher have exploded in popularity this week and have seemingly reached escape velocity.

Are Checks the next NFT bluechip?

☑️ Check(s) It Out 

Checks by Jack Butcher minted 30 days ago for 0.0066 ETH, roughly $8 at the time. 

This morning they are worth 1.55 ETH ($2,550).

That is a 300x return in 1 month, the single-best return we have seen in the NFT space in a long time.

The astronomical price action coupled with the innovative premise have the market comparing Checks to Squiggles and asking if they are the next true blue chip in the space.

Why are Checks so hyped?

Jack Butcher's premise for the project landed at the perfect time.

The Checks theme is a commentary on Elon, Twitter and paying $8 for a blue check mark as the latest version of digital status.

And the art is strangely mesmerizing, with each piece containing 80 check marks of varying colors in a 8x10 grid.

But while the art and social commentary kickstarted the hype, the burn mechanics and game theory are what has taken it to the next level.

Here's how it works:

• Holders of multiple Checks can burn them to create new, more limited supply versions
• Burn 2 80-check pieces to get 1 40-check piece, burn 2 40s to get a 20-check piece, and so on until a single colored check remains (requiring 64 burns)
• Going even further, 64 single checks can be burned for a single black check mark piece, the ultimate grail (only 3 can exist and require 4,096 editions to be burned)

There is other fun game theory as well, with users having to choose which serial number to keep when burning (i.e. I have serials 69 and 70 of the 80 check edition, I choose to keep serial 69 for my 40-check piece).

This has led to DAOs forming to create the Jordan check (serial 23), specific-colored checks, and of course the nearly unattainable Black check, which has definitely driven up the price.

The burns have not started yet, so the supply is holding at the original 16,031 total - and just 4% are listed for sale.

There are far more buyers than sellers right now, which has led to the price soaring 260% this week. And part of that demand comes back to the game theory; with so many expected burns, perhaps the original 80-piece checks will end up being one of the rarest NFTs.

One thing seems certain - Checks are not a flash in the pan and are here to stay.

🤯 Will Beeple Bail Out PROOF

Kevin Rose and the PROOF team were facing some FUD after releasing details that its upcoming PROOF of Conference event would be pay-to-attend for NFT holders.

And that price of admission is not cheap - it's 1.5 ETH ($2,500). 

Even with Moonbirds holders getting a 50% discount, that's a $1,250 ticket. In this economy?

Most were saying "no thanks," with just 1,224 of the 4,000 tickets sold as of yesterday.

Enter Beeple.

By The Numbers:

Yesterday the PROOF team announced that Beeple (arguably the most famous digital artist in the world) will be doing a live mint of 200 EVERYDAY NFTs at the event, 100 to Beeple NFT holders and 100 to random attendees.

Let's do some quick, back-of-the-napkin EV (expected value) math:

• The Beeple EVERYDAYs hold a floor of 18 ETH (~$30,000)*
• With just 1,224 tickets sold, that means each attendee has an 8% shot to mint (100/1224)
• 8% of $30,000 is $2,450, for a total EV of $2,450 with current ticket sales

*of course adding 200 NFTs to the supply will impact floor price so this is not perfect, but it gives us a directional value

That EV makes the $1,250 tickets look a lot more attractive. Plus, it's Beeple - he's a legend.

I expected this surprise addtion to get those ticket sales moving, but alas, that does not seem to be the case just yet.

Just 25 more tickets have been sold since the announcement.

Perhaps this market is not ready for the pay-to-attend meta.

🚚 What else is moving in NFTs?

A few notable headlines from yesterday:

• Jack Butcher's older projects are moving, led by Merge which jumped 250% to 0.07 ETH
• Other open editions are also benefitting in Checks' wake, as Opepen surged 120% to 0.19 ETH
• DenDekaDen Genesis popped 96% to 2.8 ETH after a collab with Toei was announced
• A Hoodie CryptoPunk sold for over $500,000 on Thursday (303 ETH), cementing the Hoodies as an elite trait and sparking conversation if Punks are set to take off soon
• what the fluff mooned in the wake of it's "fake rug" move on Wednesday, up 80% to 0.18 ETH

🌎 Around Web3

A few other Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Amazon Web Services posted a new job opportunity searching for a Senior web3 Go-To-Market Specialist, seemingly marking the rumors true of its pending entry into Web3
• Manifold, the popular open-edition minting platform, is introducing a new fee structure of $1 per transaction (paid by the buyer)
• The Squiggles NFT project founder (not Snowfro) is facing a federal jury investigation for Wire Fraud and Money Laundering
• The Delegate Cash protocol reaches a milestone of $400M worth of NFTs stored and protected using its protocol
• OpenSea introduces a new theft prevention solution, disabling WETH offer acceptance within a 3-hour window of NFT transfer across wallets

🚀 NFT Total Volume

• Checks (1,810 ETH, 1.55 ETH Floor)
• MAYC (1,208 ETH, 14.8 ETH)
• Doodles (937 ETH, 5.99 ETH)
• BAYC (929 ETH, 70.05 ETH)
• Otherdeeds (910 ETH, 1.68 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase

• Merge (199%, 0.06 ETH)
• DenDekaDen (100%, 2.6 ETH)
• Opepen Edition (90%, 0.17 ETH)
• what the fluff (81%, 0.18 ETH)
• Checks (65%, 1.55 ETH Floor)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today has the standard Friday Meme card and Art Blocks drops.

Neither the Meme or the AB drop are that exciting, and I expect the Meme to trade sub-0.5 ETH and the AB drop to struggle from a trading perspective in line with recent drops.

LoudPunx is interesting, as Rolling Loud's genesis NFT and providing irl benefits like music festival behind-the-scenes access. But irl utility does not usually play that well in NFTs, and the mint price feels high, so tread carefully.

Expect more attention on Checks and Checks-adjacent projects into the weekend.

• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Art Blocks Presents: Symbol 1 by Emily Weil (1:00 p.m. ET)
• LoudPunx (TBD)

Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.