Morning Minute | NFT Prices Fall, Friend Prices Rise
TylerD's Market Summary
It was a bloodbath in the NFT market this past weekend, but one new crypto market is surging and reaching new ATHs every day - the Friend Tech market.
📝 NFT Weekend Recap: Capitulation SZN
"These violent delights have violent ends."
It was certainly a violent weekend in the NFT space, particularly in the PFP sector.
Floors crashed almost across the board, to levels we haven't seen in over a year. There are signs of capitulation.
Now the main question on traders' minds - how low do we go? And what's next?
What Happened?
The major events from this past weekend in the NFT market include:
- PFPs crash as Blur farmers leave
- Milady (briefly) becomes the #3 PFP
- 3 Opepen Releases
- More leadership changes as Noah steps down from Yuga
A few thoughts here on each of these.
PFPs Fall, Farmers Leave
The top of the PFP leaderboard is a blood bath. The leading projects are down 20-40% on the week, in one of the worst weeks I can remember.
BAYC is below 25 ETH. Azuki is at 3.5. Clone X is barely holding above 1.
It was hard to imagine these price points even a few months ago.
Why is it happening?
Well bids are going away. Farmers are finally leaving Blur season 2 after the $BLUR token has fallen to $0.22 and many are realizing the rewards won't be there. Plus there is still no end in sight to the season.
Blur TVL is at $90M, the lowest it's been since farming season 2 began and down almost 50% since a local high on June 26 of $173M.
There is still a long way to go, and buyers likely won't re-enter PFPs with any size until season 2 is officially over (or at least is seems farming is mostly done). But we are getting closer to that point.
Milady (Briefly) Becomes the #3 PFP
In all the bloodshed, a major shift occurred.
Milady's became the #3 PFP by floor price, briefly passing MAYC. They since were re-flipped, but this was likely a sign of things to come.
It's a symbol of the "death" of the utility PFP, where buyers only collect with expectations of rewards.
People buy Milady's to join the club - that's it. There is no utility (except maybe some expectation of crypto trading alpha), no roadmap.
There are comparisons to be made to CryptoPunks in early 2021 - but I'll save that thought piece for another time.
Jack Accelerates, Drops 3 Opepen Sets
The Jack Butcher ecosystem was busy over the weekend, as Jack released 3 Opepen sets.
They include:
- Set 12: Kairos from Jack (8,000% subbed)
- Set 13: Eyes Wide Opepen from Doy (6,300% subbed)
- Set 14: Zopepen from Ripe (1,924% subbed)
We have 2 new artists in the mix, and Jack has seemingly veered from project/brand collabs for the immediate future.
Sets 12 and 13 will reveal, and 14 is close (needs to be 2,000% subbed).
If Jack keeps up the pace, he may make a real dent in the 200 sets to complete still here in 2023 - but do his holders want that? We shall see.
Browse the sets here.
NFT Leadership Changes
Capitulation isn't just happening in Blur farming.
We are seeing exits at the highest level of NFT projects.
On Friday, Cool Cats CEO Stephen Teglas announced he would be stepping down, to be replaced by founder and artist Clon.
Then on Saturday, Noah left his post as CryptoPunks brand lead for Yuga, noting a change in his priorities and wanting to spend time with family as his rationale.
Regardless of individual reasons and circumstances - the trend is becoming clear. People are leaving the top spots at these companies and many just want out.
Expect more of this to come as NFT depression season continues.
Market Action
On to the rest of the NFT market.
Here is a quick rundown of the notable floors and their 7-day price changes:
- Fidenza: 65 ETH (-27%)
- CryptoPunks: 47.69 ETH (-3%)
- Ringers: 36 ETH (-5%)
- BAYC: 23.2 ETH (-20%)
- Gazers: 12.5 ETH (-4%)
- Chromie Squiggle: 10.14 ETH (-1%)
- Grifters: 9.2 ETH (+2%)
- PROOF: 5.13 ETH (-8%)
- MAYC: 4.5 ETH (-25%)
- Milady: 4.35 ETH (even)
- DeGods: 3.95 (-27%)
- Pudgy Penguins: 3.77 ETH (-7%)
- Captainz: 3.69 ETH (-23%)
- Otherside Koda: 3.6 ETH (-13%)
- Azuki: 3.43 ETH (-30%)
A true blood bath, with just Grifters and Milady's in green.
The art sector clearly not spared either, with Fidenzas down 27% to 65 ETH after holding up around 90 ETH for weeks.
As for the PFPs, it's a bit jolting to see Azuki at the bottom of the list now at 3.43. Just 7 weeks ago they were at 17 ETH and sentiment was near ATH.
It just shows how quickly things can change, prices and sentiment-wise. There is no bid for Azuki even at 3.4 ETH here - they likely have further to fall.
Last week I picked Milady to take the #3 PFP spot by fall. I'm moving up the timeline.
It likely happens before September.
These violent delights have violent ends.
And the violence isn't over yet.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
Here is the list of other notable headlines from the weekend in NFTs:
- Trading volume again came in around 7k ETH on Sunday; NFTs mostly chopped on the weekend with the Milady ecosystem outperforming
- A Trippy Bored Ape King sold for 153 ETH on Saturday, with the seller taking a whopping 624 ETH loss on the sale
- Zynga's upcoming web3 game Sugartown announced that its first NFT collection Oras will be a free mint
- Magic Eden created a $1M Creator Fund Launchpad on Polygon to help accelerate NFT project builders
- A rare Doodles sold for 21 ETH in the highest sale in months for that collection, while feedback on the live interactive CAMP event in Chicago got positive reviews
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- The crypto market chopped over the weekend; BTC even at $26,000; ETH even at $1,670
- $BITCOIN reached new ATH yesterday after dipping 30%+ on Friday, while UNIBOT fell over 30% from local highs to $146
- Friend Tech usage rocketed over the weekend, passing 76,000 users and over $29M in buy volume; after crypto influencers led early adoption, more mainstream participants entered including folks from Twitch, Instagram, Tech, Only Fans, the NBA and more as adoption spreads
🚀 NFT Total Volume
- BAYC (1,796 ETH, 23.2 ETH Floor)
- MAYC (675 ETH, 4.55 ETH)
- DeGods (675 ETH, 3.95 ETH)
- Azuki (410 ETH, 3.53 ETH)
- Milady (326 ETH, 4.39 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
- Kanpai Pandas (56%, 1.18 ETH Floor)
- Candy Collective (34%, 0.27 ETH)
- Plooshies (27%, 0.11 ETH)
- Redacted Remilios (22%, 1.09 ETH)
- Sproto Gremlins (17%, 1.7 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today is a lighter day to kick off the week.
There is the standard Memes drop and an Art Bocks Presents drop, but the highlights is definitely from Sam Spratt.
The Monument Game starts today, with interested participants able to buy the "Ticket" NFT for 3.33 ETH to play. The demand on those tickets today will likey provide insight into how this week of games will go.
If you want more, see the full list of today's drops from Swizzy's daily mint monitor.
- Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
- Art Blocks x Vebits "Dendro" (12:00 p.m. ET)
- Weebox San FranTokyo Genesis (7:00 p.m. ET)
- Sam Spratt - The Monument Game (7:30 p.m. ET)
Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.
