NFT Roundtable | Memecoin Mania
Welcome to the Weekly NFT Roundtable, where members of the Lucky Trader team weigh in on some of the most pressing questions, news, and events in the Web3 space. The commentary below is purely opinion —not financial advice!
Recommended Reading:
Moon Moves 🦉
Question 1: Moonbirds provided several updates this week, including the plans for $TALON (a non-tradable reward token), the launch of Mythic Eggs, and the upcoming Diamond Exhibition artist list.
The main collection was relatively flat on the news after a brief surge, holding just below a 3 ETH floor, with the new Egg collection opening at .4. How are you feeling about the Moonbirds ecosystem after these updates, and do you think these plans are enough to regain market trust and turn around sentiment?
Tyler: I want to be nice here, I really do. Moonbirds holders seem happy right now, coming out of the NFT NYC event, this new focus on art, and the latest roadmap update session. And I’m happy for them.
But man, the Diamond Nest reward opened at a 0.36 ETH floor price. Seeing that sticker price after holding a Moonbird for 12 months and watching it fall from 40 ETH to 3 ETH in value is tough. But I guess we just need to forget the history and look forward. I like what the team is doing, and I actually think these are probably a good buy here at 2.8 ETH or so, based on the access to art it provides.
Ghost: When in doubt, release an egg! In all seriousness, I do like the renewed project focus on art and what the team has been rolling out. Though like Tyler said, you probably just need a ‘Men in Black’ style memory eraser of the previous price highs to be satisfied. Is that completely on the project itself — absolutely not. We saw a ton of NFTs rise to ridiculous levels during the Bull Market, and it's pretty much impossible for any to meet the expectations that those who bought the top likely have.
While I don’t think I’m ready to buy back in just yet, I could see a nice comeback narrative in the works, and would probably bet on this horse first among the other former mid-caps.
Logan: I am quietly bullish on Moonbirds and PROOF and the renewed art focus. But…given the state of the market, I just can’t willingly jump into anything right now.
As for $TALONS….to the market’s dismay, I think many U.S. projects will likely lean towards “reward points” versus “tokens” as a result of the continued scrutiny and regulatory issues a project or company could face by dropping a coin. Why take that risk?
These seem like moves that should start to stack on each other as small positives, and I do anticipate the market will regain a sliver of trust in PROOF - but it has a long way to go to join in the blue-chip conversation again.
Jason: What blue chip conversation? If it’s not a punk or ape, it’s not a blue chip. I’m not caught up on all the PROOF announcements, but in general, I don’t see how releasing additional NFTs and giving people access to even more NFTs is somehow going to bring back demand for NFTs. Mega rare lotteries for holders? Maybe. But I just don’t want the utility of my NFT, if it has one, to be access to buying other NFTs.
I don’t blame the birds or Kevin Rose, FWIW, it’s just hard to build anything in current market conditions.
Footwear Fight 👟
Question 2: The NFT space saw big updates from both Nike’s .Swoosh platform and Adidas ALTs this week. Nike is launching Gen 1 ‘Our Force 1’ digital sneakers, with a poster being airdropped to 106,453 users on the platform, which will act as a mint pass for the $20 OF1 drop. Adidas is going the PFP route, with ALTS evolving via holder decisions and various traits having specific utility within the ecosystem.
Are you buying either of these projects? Which of the major Web2 brands are doing it better? Do you see these roadmaps having the potential to appeal to users outside of our NFT bubble?
Tyler: Both are doing great jobs with their Web3 programs and are some of the leading brands in the space right now. I covered both in detail this week on the Morning Minute, so I’ll keep my thoughts here more direct. Adidas has done a better job at reaching the current NFT holder base (by using native brand ambassadors, PFPs, etc.), and I think Nike is doing a better job at trying to reach future NFT holders ($20 entry point, community events). It’s actually a really interesting problem that many brands and marketplaces have to deal with right now.
As for buying, I will likely buy some Our Force 1s. Even with 300k supply, I think they could become a valuable collectors item, and if not, at least a nice memory that I was here and active when Nike launched their first digital shoes.
Ghost: While it is cool to see these two major brands taking interesting approaches in Web3, I’m not personally buying either. As someone who invests in projects with the goal of making money, I am still skeptical about large Web2 brands being willing/able to truly reward holders in a way that meets expectations.
In terms of the OF1s in particular — I think the collectible aspect is definitely there for shoes, but this isn’t the first Nike digital shoe we’ve seen (see RTFKT). So I’m a bit weary of that label being thrown around as a potential reason to hold value.
Logan: I am not buying either one of these projects, as I personally have little to no interest in digital or physical shoes/fashion, but I do think both companies are building a strong base for web3 success.
In my opinion, Tyler nailed the breakdown. Adidas has done an excellent job of connecting with native web3 users thus far, while Nike is setting itself up for success in capturing new users that don’t have any web3 presence. The former may allow for more success in the short-term, while the latter seems better for the space overall.
Jason: Who is buying these projects? I’m not, either. But shoe brands in particular have a TON to gain from winning the NFT space. It’s another one of those obvious crossovers with the “normie” world. This battle for sneaker supremacy is just getting started, and it’ll be fun to watch… from the sidelines.
Tax Time 💸
Question 3: This week was the US tax deadline, a cause of stress for many in the space. There is also always speculation on how the time period impacts the broader market, with notable whales like J1mmy.eth selling off assets to pay the tax bill. What was your experience like with taxes this year (did you use a specific platform/strategy), and do you think the deadline has a material effect on the current red we’ve been seeing in the NFT market?
Tyler: I underestimated the impact of the tax man on the NFT market. It certainly took a hit in those last few days leading up to 4/18. I guess I thought degens would plan ahead more (a laughable thought looking back). I actually did my taxes a few months ago and had mostly forgotten about them. Luckily, we should not have this same problem in 2024, as <5% (<1%?) of degens will have NFT profits to worry about.
Ghost: I honestly thought that after a year of time, some of these platforms would have gotten more accurate and easy to use — however, if anything it felt like things got worse. The added factor of Blur really seemed to trip up a lot of the transactions, and just like the previous year it was a huge pain in the ass. Can the IRS just set up a wallet and we can code it into the smart contract to just take a percentage? I’d bet they’d like that!
In terms of the market, I think it’s a perfect storm right now of crypto going up, taxes being due and broader macro issues and the depths of an NFT bear really making things dire for NFT liquidity. It is extremely difficult for any project to see a sustained rally right now — and I don’t envy founders who are trying to appease angry degens.
Logan: I’m with Ghost, it was just as miserable as last year. I actually switched from CoinTracker to TokenTax this year, but every year I am full Donald Rumsfeld letter.
It’s difficult for me to say just how much impact the taxes thing has on the market ahead of the deadline. I guess this year might have been different just because liquidity was available (even for dusty collections) with Blur’s bidding system. But, it seems we felt very little ripple at the end of calendar years (when you’d also expect dips for harvesting’s sake).
I just think the market is weird. Too many variables. Degens don’t know what’s going to happen.
Jason: I don’t think the issue is planning, but rather a lack of clarity about how NFTs are taxed for whales. Calculating taxes is difficult when you trade with that much volume. Thankfully, I never sell, so I didn’t really have to worry about it.
Meme Money 🐸
Question 4: While the NFT markets have been slow, the focus of many in the space has shifted (at least briefly) to chasing Memecoins, with both $PEPE and $WOJACK seeing massive gains and excitement over the last few days. Have you been participating at all in the mania? What part of the cycle is this, and will we see any of the gains flow back into JPEGs?
Tyler: I saw $PEPE around a $7M market cap and was too lazy to ape into it. I then begrudgingly bought some $WOJACK on Tuesday, mostly as an emotional hedge if these coins go absolutely nuclear (which seems possible). In fact, most of the narrative I’ve seen from buyers lately is those who are just too afraid of how they’d feel if PEPE hits a $1B market cap.
It does feel like altcoin SZN got skipped and went straight to shitcoins. Many are calling for crypto to fall here in the next few weeks, so this is basically just high-stakes rocket game - how long can you hold before it crashes? And will any of this rotate back to NFTs? Probably not on any meaningful scale…
Ghost: I bought some $PEPE, and haven’t chased any others — it’s not an area I feel super comfortable dealing in, and the scams/honeypots are around every corner. That being said, the memeability of PEPE is bringing some fun and dopamine to a space that feels pretty dead right now. Hopefully some of the newfound liquidity comes back into (my bags).
Logie: I actually own both $PEPE and $WOJAK, and I don’t really know why. I’ve performed well, up multiples on both - but I have absolutely no clue what I’m doing. I have no real plan and this is basically my first time branching into the completely degen memecoin waters. I’M SCARED.
In reality, I don’t really anticipate any of this coming into the NFT market right now. There just isn’t anything fun to speculate on in jpegs right now. I guess maybe some of the newer ones, like Nakamigos, could see some inflows from newly minted memecoiners? I don’t know. This feels like an isolated event from a bunch of people who are bored and have way too much internet money.
Jason: I agree with Tyler, and we’re already starting to see Bitcoin and Ethereum retrace a little bit. We’re in for dangerous, unpredictable, and volatile times over the next few weeks and months. I can’t stomach that at the moment, so I haven’t been playing the Memcoin casino. Even if some of the profits do flow back into the Memcoins with pictures (NFTs), it doesn’t matter. There has to be a real reason to buy NFTs outside of price action before the market turns around. Right now, there are a lot of promises and near-zero execution.
Meet the Roundtable:
Ghost: Ghost is an NFT analyst at Lucky Trader. He has been in crypto since 2017, and entered the NFT space via NBA Top Shot in January of 2021 before minting Bored Apes and degenning into the broader market.
Tyler: Tyler is a high-volume NFT trader, having reached the top 100 in NFT sales revenue using NFTBank’s rankings, a Pengu maxi (in Luca we trust), and a writer for Lucky Trader. Tyler’s writing spans market analysis, news breakdowns, project ecosystem overviews, and web3 opinion pieces.
Logan: Logan is a content lead at Lucky Trader and is best known for selling every good NFT far too early. He also maintains an irrational exuberance for clay-based NFTs.
Jason: Jason is an NFT lead at Lucky Trader. He has been involved in the NFT space since CryptoKitties in late 2017, and, like most, he lost a lot of money on Top Shot in early 2021. But nevertheless, he persists (with his Series 1 Legendary From The Top LeBron James Block).
