Morning Minute | ETH ETF Launch Day Is Here

TylerD's Market Summary

💰 ETH ETFs Are Finally Set to Launch

We are now 6 months into the BTC ETF experience.

And they have not disappointed, with $17.5B in net inflows, $60B in assets under management, and the price of Bitcoin up 50%.

Now all eyes turn to the ETH ETFs and the billion dollar question - how will they compare?

What Happened?

Yesterday we got final confirmation that the ETH ETFs will launch today.

They're launching from mostly the same players:

• Franklin Templeton (EZET)
• Van Eck (ETHV)
• Bitwise (ETHW)
• ARK 21Shares (CETH)
• Fidelity (FETH)
• BlackRock iShares (ETHA)
• Invesco (QETH)
• Grayscale Eth Mini-Trust (ETH)

And BlackRock is already launching sales materials for its ETHA iShares ETF, stating "Ethereum's appeal lies in its decentralized nature and its potential to drive digital transformation in finance and other industries."

Interestingly, Grayscale's Ethereum Mini Trust will trade for ~$3/share, offering a much lower price point entry.

Market Impact and Predictions

ETH has been lagging BTC price action for seemingly the entire last year.

And Solana is up 280% against ETH this year.

So will the trends finally buck?

If we look at the BTC ETF early price action, it took a month to absorb the Grayscale outflows and for BTC to flip green again.

Then it marched up to new ATH in basically 1 month.

I'm expecting similar for ETH.

Some net outflows at the beginning, but major inflows across the rest of the year.

BlackRock has accumulated $19.5B of inflows into its BTC ETF product.

ETH seeing ~25% of that number feels like a safe bet, given BlackRock's tokenization plans and looking at market cap ratios.

Assuming the other players can drive any kind of inflows, it seems very feasible for ETH to see $100M/week in average inflows.

That's going to drive the price up.

It also seems bullish for ETH's memecoin leaders (PEPE, MOG) which are positioned to rise in line (and maybe outperform).

The other factor at play here is BTC also moving up during this time period. There are several bullish catalysts coming up, with potential rate cuts, the potential Trump presidency and BTC as a strategic reserve.

Rising BTC will pull up ETH, and then the ETFs cause even more tailwinds.

That leads to my final price targets for ETH for 2024 - $6,000 and a smashing new ATH.

Now let the games begin.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Ethereum led NFT trading volume with $4.8M on the day; Solana was next with $4.1M, and then BTC with $3.3M
• ETH NFT leaders were  mostly green on the day; Pudgy +1% at 10.6 ETH, Milady +5% to 5.7, Remilio +5% to 1.7 and BAYC -1% at 9.34
• IreneDAO (+700%) and inbetweeners (+140%) were notable top movers on the day
• BTC NFT leaders were mostly red; NodeMonkes -7% at 0.156 BTC, Puppets -4% at 0.125 BTC, Quantum Cats +3% at 0.3
• Boldinals minted out and opened at a 0.2 BTC floor with several sales in the 0.2-0.25 BTC range, before falling to 0.144 BTC
• The Runes leaders were very red; DOG -11% at $420M mc, RSIC -4% at $75M mc, PUPS -11% at $51M
• Liquidium completed an $11M airdrop to holders of various Ordinals and to users of their platform, dropping LIQUIDIUM TOKEN runes ($33M mc)
• Solana NFTs were mostly red; Mad Lads -2% at 67 SOL, SMB Gen 2 -1% at 29, DeGods -1% at 15.6
• Azuki's Gold Skateboard, the one signed by Tony Hawk, will be available for co-ownership via Co-Museum starting on July 29

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are red this morning; BTC -1% at $66,700; ETH even at $3,495, SOL -2% at $176
• Memecoin majors are very red with DOGE -3%, PEPE -1%, WIF -9%, BONK -9%, MOG -10%
• BlackRock BTC ETF inflows came in at $523M yesterday
• CNBC ran a segment talking about the US holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset along with what would happen in that scenario
• NPC Labs announced a $21M raise led by Pantera

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $BLUE (+7700%, $17M market cap, SOL)
• $BODEN (+140%, $16M market cap, SOL)
• $SLERF(+33%, $148M market cap, SOL)
• $KAMA (+50%, $24M market cap, SOL)
• $HEHE (+65%, $30M market cap, SOL) 

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• IreneDAO (770%, 0.19 ETH Floor)
• inbetweeners (140%, 0.1 ETH)
• Supreme Kong (44%, 0.44 ETH)
• Anonthology (30%, 0.05 ETH)
• Flyfish Club (25%, 0.85 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a slower day of mints and events to start the week.

The highlight is definitely the ETH ETF launch this morning at market open (9:30 am ET).

Expect some fireworks, with impacts across the ETH NFT and memecoin ecosystem.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Swords and Dungeons (8:00 a.m. ET)
• Travess Smalley x Feral File - CRAWL (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Connor Grasso - where one becomes many (12:00 p.m. ET)
• BTC Machine - Zbit Mint (12:00 p.m. ET)
• Bitcoin Cartoons (12:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.