Morning Minute | Polymarket Hits New ATH Amidst Political Pandemonium

TylerD's Market Summary

📈 RNC & Biden News Drive Polymarket ATH

Yesterday was one of those days that felt like a month.

At least for those deep in the U.S. political streets (and/or deep in PoliFi and prediction markets).

And one prediction market in particular is winning big.

What Happened?

Polymarket daily volume hit $20M yesterday.

That's a smashing new ATH and nearly a 20x jump in 3 months.

Other eye-popping stats:

• July monthly volume at $150M (ATH with 12 days to go)
• Daily active traders hit ATH at 4,650 yesterday (up 17x in 3 months)
• 90,000 new accounts in the past 3 months

So why is it happening?

Yesterday was a perfect storm of events.

Multiple sources reported various rumors that Biden will be dropping out of the 2024 Presidential race, with conflicting reports on who would replace him (Kamala vs open convention), and who Kamala's potential VPs would be.

This drove major action in several leading bets, including:

• Presidential Election Winner (Trump at 64%, Kamala 22%, Biden 5%) - $284M bet
• Democratic Nominee (Kamala at 61%, Biden 20%, Other 13%) - $150M bet
• Presidential Election Popular Vote (Trump at 50%, Kamala 29%, Biden 9%) - $50M bet
• Biden to drop out (85% chance) - $19M bet

All of this was happening during the final night of the Republican National Convention (RNC) which featured speeches from Hulk Hogan, Dana White and then Donald Trump himself.

Polymarket spun up some fun bets for the RNC occasion, including a market on words that Trump would say in his speech (which garnered $800,000 in action).

So it was a massive political attention day - and Polymarket definitely benefited.

Why It Matters

Prediction markets are certainly hot.

Many are calling them the best product market fit for any "crypto" app from this cycle (crypto in quotes because not a requirement necessarily for a market).

And with big enough volumes, they have the ability to show the news before the news itself becomes official (ie the JD Vance nomination, potentially Biden dropping out, etc.).

Many news sources are beginning to share current odds alongside stories as a method of reinforcement.

These lines are starting to become the source of truth for what's actually happening, in a world where consumers often get conflicting information.

Hopefully a trend that continues...

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Ethereum led NFT trading volume with $4.9M (+10%) on the day; SOL was next with $3.4M, and then BTC with $2.2M
• ETH NFT leaders were mostly green on the day; Pudgy -1% at 10.6 ETH, Milady +3% to 5.1, Azuki +7% to 4.2 and BAYC +2% at 9.44
• DigiDaigaku and Renga were notable top movers on the day, jumping 20-30%
• BTC NFT leaders were mixed; NodeMonkes -3% at 0.176 BTC, Puppets -4% at 0.13 BTC, Quantum Cats +3% at 0.33; OCM led +35% at 0.05 & BTC Machines +20% to 0.15
• The DECENTRALIZED Untitled mint soared to a 0.09 BTC floor from a $100 mint
• The Runes leaders were very red; DOG -9% at $390M mc, RSIC -3% at $82M mc, PUPS -11% at $45M, BILLY -10% to $42M
• Solana NFTs were mostly green; Mad Lads +4% at 74 SOL, SMB Gen 2 +10% at 35, DeGods -3% at 17, Tensorians even at 12.4
• Yuga announced a major partnership with Pixel Vault & Reboot to bring skill-based wagering into The Otherside
• The Otherside announced "Project Dragon" will take place on July 27 at noon ET
• Grant Yun's "An Old Soul" minted out and the floor opened at a 0.34 ETH floor ($1,160), a quick 3x for minters

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are red this morning; BTC -1% at $64,040; ETH -1% at $3,400, SOL +2% at $162
• Memecoin majors are mostly red with DOGE -2%, PEPE -4%, WIF -1%, BONK +2%, MOG -5%
• Trump may announce a Bitcoin strategic reserve policy at BTC Nashville according to growing rumors
• Base reported its Onchain Summer projects have generated more than $1M in revenue
• Animoca Brands is partnering with Standard Chartered and HKT for participation in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin issuer sandbox which was announced in March

🚀 Memecoin Movers 

• $WEWE (+170%, $19M market cap, Base)
• $MIGGLES (+120%, $80M market cap, Base) 
• $SIGMA (+90%, $10M market cap, SOL)
• $KAMA (+34%, $13M market cap, SOL)
• $GIGA (+30%, $152M market cap, SOL)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)

• CCP Premium Pass (41%, 0.14 ETH Floor)
• DigiDaigaku (31%, 2.3 ETH)
• MyShell (28%, 0.45 ETH)
• Nippy (23%, 0.16 ETH)
• HV MTL (18%, 0.05 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events

Today is a busier day of mints to finish the weeks.

Alexis Andre's "Frontline" mint is likely the highlight, with 10k supply minting for 0.00095 BTC on Osura. With such a low entry price, it seems there's a real shot at a nice return for minters even with the large supply.

See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Aeons (10:00 a.m. ET)
• Alexis Andre - Frontline (10:00 a.m. ET)
• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
• Erin Redwing - ephemera (12:00 p.m. ET)
• BLASTONE - Key & Box (1:00 p.m. ET)

Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.