NFT Roundtable | 2023 NFT Resolutions
Welcome to the Weekly NFT Roundtable, where members of the Lucky Trader team weigh in on some of the most pressing questions, news, and events in the web3 space. This week, we're discussing the team's New Year's NFT resolutions, the highly-anticipated Memeland Captainz mint, holiday Yuga news, and more.
The commentary below is purely opinion —not financial advice!
- Next Phase of the Trial of Jimmy the Monkey Released
- Memeland Announces Snapshot, Captainz Mint Time
- NFT Morning Minute: What Happened over Christmas Break?
New Year's Resolutions 🥳
Question 1: Happy New Year! After a difficult year for the space in 2022, what is your NFT resolution for 2023? (interpret this in your own way)
Ghost: To sell into pumps, take more profits, and not be as emotional about my bags. The brutal bear of 2022 taught a lot of painful lessons, which in hindsight reminded me a lot of what experienced crypto traders say about their first cycle. I hope to not repeat those same mistakes twice!
Tyler: You all have covered some great trading-related resolutions, so I’ll go in a different direction - I want to network more. One of my biggest mistakes, having been relatively early to NFTs (bought my first in Feb ‘21), was not connecting with enough other traders, content creators, thought leaders, etc. I want to change that this year, and my primary method will be through social audio (i.e. Twitter Spaces).
Logie: Dig in. I spent less time in 2022 “grinding” a rapidly evolving space with tons of intriguing storylines and innovations. While I was fully immersed, I still leaned closer towards “bored” than “medium bored” - a fatal sin. I won’t make the same mistake twice.
Jason: I’ll be contrarian here: step away. I wrote an article in 2022 called Crypto’s ‘Never Sleep’ Mentality Is Making You an Unlucky Trader, and it holds true today, even in a bear market. Your brain and body need rest and relaxation. It makes you more productive when you are working and helps you make important decisions with sound judgment. Don’t be afraid to go to sleep, go outside, or turn off your electronics. Allow yourself that break. To be more productive, try being less productive at times.
Memeland Sets Sail ⛵️
Question 2: The long-awaited release of Captainz from Memeland is this week. Potatoz surged above 3 ETH prior to the snapshot, and there is significant buzz around the project. Thoughts on where the initial secondary price lands for Captainz, and the future of the ecosystem?
Ghost: I think Memeland is a fascinating example of building a strong community prior to launching your main collection. The project has literally been putting the Memelist together for what feels like a century — and the way they’ve developed Potatoz has been unique and sharp. With how high the prices got for Potatoz, and the strength the “MVP” collection has shown, I could see this being a Moonbirds-style run right out of the gate. Let’s conservatively say 5 ETH.
Tyler: Simple math on the allowlist requirement of 3 Potatoz + 1 ETH mint puts the initial target range anywhere from 8.5 ETH to 11.5 ETH, using recent Potatoz floor data. The question there remains - what inherent value will Potatoz hold? If they remain above 2 ETH, then the Captainz valuations must fall, likely closer to 3-5 ETH. The most consistent targets for Captainz I’ve seen are in the 5-8 ETH range, and that feels right. It’s hard for me to see this one moving past the Moonbird/Pudgys/Doodles (6-8 ETH) tier and into the Azuki tier (12-14 ETH) right off the bat, but who knows - they have an absolute CULT following and community.
Logie: One of my favorite parts about the Memeland ecosystem is the simplicity of the “innovation” that has been pursued. Most robust ecosystems in NFTs are inherently complex and difficult to follow. While some mystery remains about Captainz and Treasure Mapz, I think the team has created a precedent that ensures the unfolding roadmap can be understood. For that alone, I think we’ll continue to see growth in the community and I expect the price of Captainz will reflect that, perhaps settling in around 1.5-2 ETH.
The Trial Begins 👀
Question 3: We saw the start of the Trial of Jimmy the Monkey over the holidays, and the Yuga Labs umbrella of collections has continued to see strong volume. How did you feel about the lore, and what are your predictions for the upcoming mint?
Ghost: While toilet humor isn’t really my jam, I thought the video teaser was really well done (Ren and Stimpy vibes), and we’ve seen the entire Yuga ecosystem (including $APE) start to trend upwards. I think after a relatively quiet year of lore, the community is eager and ready for the story to progress, and I think Yuga has a masterful grasp of keeping things exciting. I have no idea what’s coming, but I think it will be entertaining and positive for Yuga assets and the space.
Logie: Monkeys fighting dogs or whatever happens, seems fine. But, I’ll second Ghost here, I don’t understand the need to constantly chuck in random crude humor. It’s just weird…and while I know some of that weirdness and rebellion has led to the rise of Yuga and BAYC, I’m bearish on the ability to continually attract new fans with the unnecessary inclusion of weird shit…literally.
Jason: Potty humor aside, Yuga Labs hasn’t yet adjusted to the bear market. Another mint? No thanks. More mysterious and obscure lore? No thanks. That’s bull market behavior. Show me a substantial development for the community, and make it easy to understand. I don’t want to sound too pessimistic here, but do people actually care about this lore, or do they care about how this lore will impact the floor price of their apes, mutants, and dogs? My guess: the latter.
Tyler: I’ll agree with Jason here that people don’t really care about the lore. I haven’t seen much commentary at all on the actual story, but I’ve seen a whole lot of chatter about the floor price impact. It’s hard to be bearish Yuga right now, especially as their entire ecosystem is pumping, but this Trial begins their next phase of “execution risk.” If the outcome of The Trial is a dud in any capacity, it likely spells near-term doomy price action. At the same time, Yuga might be “too big to fail” at this point, as traders are going to ape into every announcement and update in a reinforcing feedback loop of high-volume momentum trading. So my ultimate lean is still bullish until I see clear market indications telling me otherwise.
2023 Vibes 🎉
Question 4: New Year, new NFTs! Are there any brand new collections, art, or web3/crypto trends on your radar to start off 2023?
Ghost: BONK! I am not very into Solana (holdings: 1 y00t, 1 t00b) — but the excitement surrounding the surge of a dog-shitcoin brings me back to the Bull Market. And after all of the random airdrops ETH people got over the last few years, I’m happy for the Solana NFT community for getting one as well.
Tyler: Second on BONK, Ghost. It’s my favorite meme coin and I’m holding to Valhalla ($1B+ FDV) or zero. In the NFT space, the clear trend right now is pumps in the low-cap sector. Last year higher-end blue chips led the way, and this year it seems to be the opposite (putting Yuga aside). Beanz is outpacing Azuki, Dooplicators is outpacing Doodles, and I expect Oddities to outpace Moonbirds. Other lower-price collections like rektguy, Sappy Seals, Pandas, and a flurry of Japanese projects are moving in the 0.5 ETH to 1.5 ETH range as well. This is the sector of the market to focus on right now, in my opinion, and I’m placing my chips accordingly (my non-BONK chips that is).
Logie: This isn’t new…but did you hear FEWOCiOUS is finishing up a FewoWorld trailer? I suspect 2023 will bring Fewos (the official PFP of FewoWorld)...and I cannot wait for the continued exploration and growth of his legacy.
Jason: I’m most excited about how major brands (like Starbucks, Rolling Stone, Nike, TIME, Gucci, etc.) use NFT technology to push the boundaries of brand loyalty and customer incentives. Forget about cartoons for a couple of months. I want to see high-end restaurants offering NFT memberships and seat reservations, houses and cars being bought and sold on the blockchain, and the advancement of more secure and trusted voting mechanisms in politics. Real-world use cases, please. Thanks.
Meet the Roundtable:
Ghost: Ghost is an NFT analyst at Lucky Trader. He has been in crypto since 2017, and entered the NFT space via NBA Top Shot in January of 2021 before minting Bored Apes and degenning into the broader market.
Tyler: Tyler is a high-volume NFT trader, having reached the top 100 in NFT sales revenue using NFTBank’s rankings, a Pengu maxi (in Luca we trust), and a writer for Lucky Trader. Tyler’s writing spans market analysis, news breakdowns, project ecosystem overviews, and web3 opinion pieces.
Logan: Logan is a content lead at Lucky Trader and is best known for selling every good NFT far too early. He also maintains an irrational exuberance for clay-based NFTs.
Jason: Jason is an NFT lead at Lucky Trader. He has been involved in the NFT space since CryptoKitties in late 2017, and, like most, he lost a lot of money on Top Shot in early 2021. But nevertheless, he persists (with his Series 1 Legendary From The Top LeBron James Block).