NFT Weekly Preview | Can Tiffany & Co. Start the Next Bull Run?
Crickets. Abysmal. Ded.
These may be three of the most commonly used adjectives to describe NFT volume in the past week. which has sunk to yearly lows. According to Nansen data, the week ending August 1 tallied just ~79,000 ETH in NFT trading volume, down from the 100-125K ETH range seen through most of July and about 10 percent lower than the weekly totals in last November's bear market (~86,000 ETH/week). Volume is officially at its lowest since last July, punctuated by July 30 is the first day where 2021 volume flipped 2022 volume in USD terms.
Last year on July 30, OpenSea volumes jumped from $10mn to $30mn and never looked back.— NFTStatistics.eth (@punk9059) July 30, 2022
Unfortunately, today will be the first time ever where NFT USD volumes are down year-on-year. pic.twitter.com/GWWWNEwtUR
This is likely at least somewhat tied to volatility in the crypto markets, as ETH just closed a roller coaster week, which saw lows below $1,400 and highs above $1,750, now sitting at $1,650 at the time of writing (+3% on the week). The equity markets reacted well to last week's FOMC meeting and 75 bps hike, along with decent tech earnings numbers, to close the week up slightly. Alts had an explosive week, with coins such as ETC (+41%), FIL (+59%), and ICP (+25%) having explosive weeks, and NFT coins such as $APE ($6.95, +7%) also had solid weeks.
NFTs never perform well against crypto volatility, and this week was no exception.
With NFT volume down big and crypto interest rallying, Twitter pundits are happy to call NFTs ded and shout how the bubble has burst. But there are some major reasons for hope as we enter this week.
NFT Weekly Market Recap
The weekly numbers are actually surprisingly good given the incredibly low volume from the past week, led by the top-end art market. Of the top 25 NFT projects by floor price (data courtesy wgmi.io), just 12 were in the red on the week, with 5 in the green and 8 neutral. And there were some major rallies up top, with Ringers up 33 percent on the week at 80 ETH floor, PROOF Collective up eight percent to 77.6 ETH, and Elevated Deconstructions up 37% to 48 ETH floor. The mid-tier (floor between 8-20 ETH) numbers were rough, with just one project in the green (Admit One, up 17%) with most others down 5-20 percent.
The July month-end numbers are similar, with 10 of the top 25 projects in green on the 30-day view, though the green is concentrated at the top as 9 of the top 12 are green and the mid-tier is mostly red.
Looking at the weekly volume numbers, a few storylines jump out.
The Yuga ecosystem mostly chopped on lower volume, as was the general market trend of the week. The trio of BAYC/MAYC/Otherdeeds combined for just ~6k ETH, with floors down 4-10 percent at 85 / 16.3 / 2.2 ETH respectively.
Memeland Potatoz was the big winner of the week, seeing 2,300 ETH volume and their floor up 56 percent to 1.19 ETH. This cult project seems to be gaining traction, and with announcements of their staking mechanism likely coming soon, expect this one to remain on the top of the volume leaderboard for the next few weeks.
Ledger made a splash with its first NFT launch in its Market Genesis Pass, which sold at 10,000 NFTs at 0.3 ETH and sits a health 50% up from mint at 0.47 ETH. The sentiment seems to be very positive around this project, as Ledger is widely trusted for their role in security, and this market seems hungry for trusted players/brands to enter (vs anons).
On that note, CryptoPunks are back on top of the board with 3200 ETH traded on the week (+15%) and the floor even at 75 ETH (though up over 10% from the local bottom). The headline here is Tiffany's, which had a major surprise announcement yesterday as they teased "NFTiff" and the "30 ETH" tagline. This mega-brand is officially entering the NFT space with a 250 supply drop for Punk owners, creating bespoke jewelry pendants as physicals to go along with the NFTs for those who mint.
The initial market reaction was "cash grab", but sentiment clearly shifted over the afternoon as it set in how big of a deal it is that a brand the caliber of Tiffany's is dropping an NFT. Then the bids on aesthetic punks started rolling in, the sales bot picked up, and the floor jumped 5 ETH in the first night of trading after the announcement. This has led certain NFT traders (such as yours truly) to start calling for a Tiffany's-led bull runs for NFTs, and the first day of data looks promising.
The upcoming week was looking incredibly boring, but Tiffany's news definitely sparked it and will punctuate a now interesting week for new NFT drops. Here is what is on the radar for this week:
- Art Blocks Playground - Ieva
- Tiffany's NFTiff
- Existing Projects To Watch
Let's get into it.
Art Blocks Playground - Ieva
Controversial generative artist Shvembldr is back today with his latest drop Ieva, starting at 1:00 p.m. ET. The artist has made headlines in the past weeks, announcing that Latvian police have apparently seized ~$9M of his assets. Shvem is seemingly looking to capitalize on the attention, changing his Twitter bio to state "Criminal Generative Artist...Forced bangles." and now releasing a new 500 supply NFT set just a few days since sharing the story. The title of the project "Ieva" is after the lead investigator who made the criminal case against him.
As for the art itself, the description reads "Ieva is an algorithm that creates a shape in a specific sequence from a random point on the grid and smooths out its corners. Overlapping such shapes creates endless possibilities of combinations that will always remain balanced and aesthetically pleasing." Upon review, the set definitely gives off "Ringers-vibes", and that may be because it appears to be a copycat/derivative of that infamous set.
Early sentiment in Art Blocks discord seems to be looking past that, and this set seems to be in high demand. There are already standing 1 ETH offers on the set, and a piece has sold for 3 ETH already. This is because 70 have been minted already, as holders of Shvem's TBOA token were able to mint in the 24 hours leading up to the auction (standard for Shvem sets). It appears that even TBOA owners had to pay 1 ETH for these, which likely sets a bottom for the dutch auction.
Given the notoriety of Shvem, his pending case, and the namesake of this project, there will be significant demand for this one. He has a similar playground supply set Alien DNA now at 1.65 ETH floor, and early chatter is that this dutch auction will finish near that mark. It certainly seems risky at that price point, especially given the secondary market performance of the last series of Art Blocks mints. If it somehow goes lower than 1 ETH, it becomes very attractive; else, this may be a stay away. Regardless, this will be a major story in the generative art space this week and a big one to watch.
Monday, August 1, 2022, at 12:00 PM CDT.— Shvembldr (@shvembldr) July 30, 2022
My new project, Ieva, will be released on @artblocks_io.
I wrote a short essay about the project: https://t.co/glPaZubsTr. pic.twitter.com/UMF8o7EDcL
As highlighted in the intro above, Tiffany's made a major splash yesterday announcing its new 30 ETH mint for CryptoPunk owners called "NFTiff". Tiffany's seemingly has partnered with Deepak in the launch (notorious for his Alien Punk and M3 acquisitions), who went on to explain the benefits of the NFT for minters. Each will receive:
- A handmade custom Tiffany & Co designed pendant of YOUR OWN CryptoPunk
- Tiffany & Co Necklace
- A custom NFT design that will be the art of the actual pendant in an NFT form serving as a collectible & cert. of auth.
- Shipping & Handling
See more info about the drop here in a great write-up from Logan Hitchcock.
Given the low supply (250) and high mint price (30 ETH), the target market for this drop is quite small. So why include it here?
This drop has the potential for mega ripples in the NFT market. First, this established brand launching a luxury product on ETH, and potentially raising ~$11M in minutes on Friday if / when it sells out, will put other luxury brands on notice. The project seems to be very well thought out, and if executed correctly, could very well set the stage for future brand launches. And many are thinking that Punks and BAYC will be the first to receive the benefits.
And that's important to us as NFT traders because those two sets typically lead to NFT bull runs. Money almost always seems to trickle down in NFTs, and if this Tiffany's drop can put top-end PFPs back in the spotlight, the mid-tier will be likely to benefit as well. And Art Blocks / Squiggles seem to run behind Punks now as well, so that ecosystem could benefit.
Signs of a Punk run are already out there, as the floor is up over 5 ETH since Tiffany's announcement yesterday, and multiple mid-tier and high-end bids have been received (including an 800 ETH Zombie bid).
For these reasons, this drop is worth everyone's attention, even those who are priced out. This will be an epic one to watch on Friday, and the secondary action will be quite telling as well.
We’re taking NFTs to the next level. Exclusive to CryptoPunks holders, NFTiff transforms your NFT into a bespoke pendant handcrafted by Tiffany & Co. artisans. You’ll also receive an additional NFT version of the pendant. Learn more: https://t.co/FJwCAxw8TN #NFTiff #TiffanyAndCo pic.twitter.com/pyKlWejHv4— Tiffany & Co. (@TiffanyAndCo) July 31, 2022
Existing Projects To Watch
With a lack of new mints on the primary this week, and the free mint meta likely coming to at least a temporary close, the focus will shift to the secondary market. Here are a few teams/projects to watch this week ahead of pending announcements or project advancements.
Grails 2 is coming, with the website going live today, the mint pass dropping 8/8, and the mint window opening on 8/16. The PROOF pass floor is already up in anticipation, up 8 percent on the week to 78 ETH floor. Grails 1 was a very successful drop, as the project from 20 top artists with 20 unique pieces has traded over 3400 ETH, holds a 1.5 ETH floor, and saw top-end sales of 75 and 80 ETH for the Protoglyph piece. With this high of a rare lotto, traders with the bankroll will want to roll the dice. As Moonbirds with the Grail trait also gets to partake, their floor has moved as well, with sales in the low 30 ETH range last week and at a 32.5 ETH floor this morning.
Bored & Dangerous
Chatter is picking up about Azurbala and the pending burn mechanism for Bored & Dangerous NFT holders, allowing the choice to participate in the ownership DAO or mint an Azure Root / PFP for the coming ecosystem. The project floor is up about 30% from local bottom, now sitting at 0.38 ETH, and it seems every day more whales and top BAYC accounts seem to be tweeting about this high-potential project from Jenkins the Valet. With the Jenkins team, Neil Strauss, and Tally Labs all in the mix, this project has a very strong and notable team behind it, has a proven ability to build and grow an ecosystem, and continues to be one of the top projects below a 1 ETH floor to watch in this NFT market.
As noted above, the Potatoz was the big winner of last week, up 56 percent as the market begins to prep for the upcoming staking mechanism. The cryptic tweets seem to help as well, and the social team is finding its groove in capturing and keeping attention via their messaging. With a general lack of hyped new projects from real teams (advisors include Tim Ferriss, Naval, Gary Vee, Kevin Rose, and more) in the past months, this one stands out and the early market action reflects that as the set has seen 8K ETH in just 1.5 weeks since launch and holds a 1.25 ETH floor at the time of writing. Once more details on staking are released, and that mechanism is launched, expect even more attention and volume on this set with already a massive following (446K on the Memeland account, 9GAG with 16.8M).
Wildcards: Ledger and Stickmen Toys
Ledger Genesis and Stickmen Toys (from Warner Records UK and Bose) are two of the latest projects to drop from major brands. Both are currently experiencing some post-release dips, with Ledger down ~30 percent from local highs at 0.47 ETH (though up 50% from mint) and Stickmen down nearly 100 percent from pre-reveal highs at 0.15 ETH. But given the promise of each of these sets is their utility and access to future projects and perks, reveal events shouldn't really matter (nor should rarity), and once the first round of utility is announced expect these to move. Given the recent lull for both projects, it would not be surprising at all to see a big announcement of two regarding future plans here this week, which could certainly move the market.
Volume is down, and there's virtually nothing new to mint or trade this week. But Tiffany's is giving us a spark of hope for a potential rally, and this bear market is providing some really nice entry points for some newer projects from big teams and brands. No one knows if or when the next bull run will commence, but when it does, these are the types of projects which will benefit the most, and now is the time to act on those where the conviction has been built.
So take this break in the action to do some due diligence and research, and be ready to make a move and/or build a position when it makes sense. As always, we will keep you posted with the most relevant news from the NFT world with the Lucky Trader newsfeed. Stay safe out there, and good luck this week!