NFT Weekly Preview | Is the NFT Market Bullish?

NFT Weekly Preview | Is the NFT Market Bullish?

Some major NFT floors had been quietly moving up in the past few weeks since the capitulation event in mid-June - but guess what, it's not so quiet anymore. Floors are loudly moving up.

BAYC is leading the way in the PFP space, with its floor back at 100 ETH for the first time in nearly 2 months. Punks are not too far behind, now at 77 ETH floor up a whopping 59% on the month in a massive comeback. And Fidenzas are leading the way for generative art, up 57% on the month to a 110 ETH floor price.

Going even further, of the top 30 projects by floor price on the site wgmi.io, 29 are in the green on the month. We are in a sea of green right now, at least in ETH terms.

What has made this run so interesting thus far is that it's taking place in a very low liquidity environment (~113K ETH traded last week, the lowest since last November in ETH terms) and without any major catalysts in the NFT market. There have not been any major announcements or airdrops from the top projects. The drivers seem to be 1)re-pricing in USD terms as several NFTs became incredibly cheap as the value of ETH has plummeted in the past few months and 2)a flight to higher quality projects and art, less reliant on roadmaps.

The crypto market has been somewhat stable over the past few weeks, helping this NFT run as volatility in crypto prices is the biggest bear signal for jpegs. BTC and ETH closed the week both up ~7% at $20.6k and $1,150 respectively, in line with a small green week for equities. But anecdotally it seems the market is now trading sidewise until the inflation numbers come out this Wednesday, which will likely be a major market mover one way or another. If inflation comes in below expectations, everything could move into full send mode; otherwise, it could be more pain.

Let's take a closer look at the last week in the NFT market. For specific numbers, refer to our project rankings page

NFT Market Weekly Recap

The first takeaway is that it's mostly the established "blue chip" PFP projects leading volume, with just two new projects cracking the top ten in The Possessed and Immortal Player Character. Punks-led all volume is likely the biggest surprise of the week, seeing 9k ETH volume and jumping 15 percent on the week to 77 ETH.

The Yuga ecosystem had a solid week ahead of the much anticipated Otherside demo coming this Saturday, combining for 15K ETH across the four main sets and reaching respective floors of 100/20.3/8.4/2.8 for BAYC/MAYC/BAKC/Otherdeeds. The surprise move here was from the dogs, as BAKC jumped 34 percent on the week and surged past 9 ETH at peak, leading to some suspicion of a major announcement coming this week related to the utility for the companion set. But BAYC reclaiming 100 ETH floor should not be overlooked or understated, as this is a major milestone and is good for the entire NFT market. Their success almost always leads the way for the rest of the market.

Rounding out PFPs, Moonbirds had a very steady climb this past week up 12 percent to 29 ETH floor ahead of the silver nest event coming in 9 days. CloneX and Azuki had mixed results, with Clone X down 8 percent to 11.3 on the week but Azuki up 8 percent to 12.5 ETH on a relatively slow week.

Now let's hit Art Blocks and have some fun. Art Blocks did just $10M in volume in the 30 days ending last Monday; they did $6M in volume in the past 7 days. Volume is on a huge uptick right now, and floor prices are surging as floors across the major projects have been thin for weeks. Here are some notable winners of the past week:

  • Fidenza at 110 ETH (+33%)
  • Subscapes at 17 ETH (+42%)
  • Gazers at 11.9 ETH (+29%)
  • Genesis at 10.69 ETH (+98%)
  • Anticyclone at 8.5 ETH (+64%)

There are several other Curated projects up 30-60 percent on the week as well, in what has been the best week for price action likely since last August. There was a very successful Factory drop last Wednesday in Fermented Fruit as well, which minted out at 0.2 ETH and ran past a 3 ETH floor in secondary trading in the latest successful new drop. 

Art Blocks' success has been in line with the overall digital art market, with top digital artists having seen the boon as well. XCOPY's Grifters were a notable winner, running to 30 ETH at peak (from 11 ETH), and Grant Yun's open edition piece "School & Apartments" reached 2 ETH at peak, all along with a healthy backdrop of 1/1 art sales.

So art is surging and so are Punks and the Yuga ecosystem - it feels like last summer all over again. This week will be a huge test if that momentum can continue, especially if some bad macro news comes out.

With all of that said, last week was mostly a rough week for new mints, as the free mint meta seems to have stalled out, WAGMI United failing to mint out and the only real success being The Saudis. This may indicate a renewed focus on the existing projects is the coming theme and that the market is tired of the "mint and flip" environment of the past few weeks.

Luckily there are some established and big-name projects dropping this week. Here are the top drops for the week of July 11th:

  • Bored & Dangerous from Jenkins The Valet 
  • Art Blocks Curated: "Running Moon"
  • The GODA Mint Pass: Nina'a Super Cool World

Bored & Dangerous from Jenkins the Valet

Launching today from arguably the most recognizable Bored Ape "Jenkins The Valet" is the first community-driven generative book "Bored & Dangerous". The book has been a work in progress for quite some time, in collaboration with its growing community and partnership with NYT bestseller Neil Strauss. 

From the project website, the Bored & Dangerous NFT can be burned to mint an Azur Root or staked for governance in the DAO. The Azur Root will be the mint pass and entry point to Azurbala, the mysterious world/game coming from the Jenkins team which will include the first PFPs of this project ecosystem. 

The mint starting at 10 AM today will be conducted in 3 phases, starting with a public dutch auction for 2,367 NFTs, a 48-hour Writer's List sale of 11,517 NFTs at 25% of the final dutch price, and then a free claim for Writer's Room NFT owners.

With the Writer's Room NFT at 1.8 ETH floor and what seems to be overwhelmingly positive community sentiment on this drop, expect some major attention on the public dutch auction today and some solid secondary action as well.  The wrinkle here is that over 75 percent of the supply will be minted for free or at 25% of the dutch price, which may lead the dutch auction to go to the lower end of the spectrum; but with only 2300 supply, once it starts moving it could go quickly. 

 

Art Blocks Curated: "Running Moon"

Curated is back this week on Wednesday and with more anticipation than any drop has had in months. It seems there has been a smash-success Art Blocks mint every week for the past four weeks, and traders/flippers have caught on to the trend. 

This week's drop Running Moon from Licia He "depicts the nuanced interaction between clouds and moonlight" and draws inspiration from both stained glass and watercolor styles. Viewing some of the sample outputs from Licia's page, the set draws some similarities to Anticyclone and her core concept of expansion is easily noticed, as each piece has a focal point with the eye moving out from there upon review.

The mint mechanic for this set of just 500 supply will be a dutch auction starting at 3 ETH with an exponential decrease to a resting price of 0.2 ETH. With the amount of attention on Art Blocks now and the number of alpha groups that seem to have caught on to their success, expect a much higher mint out price than we have seen in the past few drops. This one is liable to mint out in the 1.5-2 ETH range or potentially even higher if it starts moving fast on the primary. There will be a lot of FOMO chasing on this one, as well as a good amount of folks simply looking to flip on secondary, so be cautious on minting and stick to entry points that make sense.

With that said, sentiment seems to be very positive on this one and there is a chance it performs well on the secondary even with an influx of flippers coming to the mint. On a relatively quiet week or new drops, this may be the highlight and will be worth watching on Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. ET.

The GODA Mint Pass: Nina's Super Cool World

The highly anticipated first mint for GODA pass owners is coming this Wednesday, as a contemporary artist, Nina Chanel drops her "SUPER COOL WORLD" project. 

For those who are not familiar with GODA (Gallery of Digital Assets), they are aiming to bridge the world of leading contemporary artists and digital art, helping connect these artists with a new collector base via NFTs. Nina Chanel is up first, launching her generative-PFP project with allusions to features from her traditional art pieces and background. 

Though Nina is launching this primarily as an art project, there are some hints to a utility for owners, including potential merch, collab products, airdrops, and events.

The mint mechanics include a total supply of 5,080 NFTs, with GODA pass owners able to mint two pieces and a PREMINT raffle for allowlist spots, each able to mint 1 NFT. The price is 0.5 ETH, which is a bit on the high side for new mints and with a supply of this size. The GODA mint pass floor has dropped from a peak around 12 ETH to 7.8 ETH at the time of writing, a potential red flag for this first drop though, so be careful with this one. But Nina's work commands 5-figure prices in the traditional space and coupled with this being the genesis GODA drop and the hints of utility, there could be enough demand for this one mint out and see solid secondary action. 

Conclusion

Overall it's a slower week for new drops based on the current calendar, so the most likely scenario is continued focus on the top PFP and Art Blocks projects. Expect those names to be on top of the weekly leaderboard next week, though the macro backdrop is likely the biggest factor in whether that board will be mostly green or red. But without any major bad news, it feels like the most likely scenario is a continued increase in ETH floor prices as NFT summer heats up.

The Yuga team is the x-factor this week, with The Otherside demo on Saturday and rumors of a potential announcement related to the BAYC roadmap. Any news from them could be a huge catalyst for the market, which has been seeing a slight increase in daily volume.

With Fidenza back over 100 ETH in the Art Blocks space, look for some of the other top Curated sets to begin their next move up as well (Ringers, Elevateds, Archetypes). Wednesday's Curated drop for Running Moon will be a great test of market sentiment, and if it goes well, expect even more attention on all future mints and secondary action. 

The NFT market feels fun again and healthier. Hopefully, this trend continues this week.

Good luck out there to those trading and happy minting! Make sure to stay up to date on all the latest breaking NFT news with the Lucky Trader newsfeed. 

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