NFTs Weekly Preview | Adapting to the NFT Bear Market
There's blood in the streets.
The latest NFT bull market cycle seems to have abruptly stopped in its tracks, and things are looking quite bearish. An astonishing 49 of the top 50 PFP projects are in red on the weekly view, and 94 of the top 100. It's a sea of red, from top to bottom.
So what happened to the market?
The macro-environment seems to be the biggest driver, as equities are crashing tied to the FED's latest interest rate hikes, and the crypto markets are trading in line with traditional finance.
Both BTC and ETH are down 15 percent in the last week, with BTC at $33,200 and ETH at $2,427 at the time of writing. Alts are down even more, with NFT-related coins APE at $11 (down 27 percent) and $LOOKS at $1.15 (down 27 percent) amongst others.
Couple that environment with the latest Otherdeeds NFT drop from Yuga, which burned nine figures in gas fees, took 137,000 ETH out of the ecosystem in its primary sale, and is now trading below mint at 2.9 ETH (effective mint cost was 3.5-3.75 for most).
The big open question last week was if the inflows to Otherdeeds from new money or outside money would be enough to counter that raise, and the answer is here and a firm "no."
Even a record-smashing week of more than 230,000 ETH traded in the first seven days on secondary was not enough to fight against the Otherdeeds NFT sell pressure in the 100,000 NFT set...and the entire NFT market has been impacted in the wake.
NFT Market Impact
Let's take a look at that impact on the top-end PFP projects. Here are the current floor prices and weekly change percentages.
- BAYC at 96 ETH (-25%)
- Moonbirds at 19 ETH (-45%)
- Azuki at 18.8 ETH (-18.8%)
- MAYC at 18.45 ETH (-29%)
- Doodles at 17.5 ETH (-14.7%)
- CloneX at 13.8 (-24%)
That's the full list of PFP projects above a 10 ETH floor. It's bleak.
But there are a few bright spots to note.
Project PXN minted at 2 ETH for its public sale (0.35 ETH for WL) and now carries a 3.7 ETH floor price ahead of its pending reveal, putting minters up more than 100 percent on average.
Plus, rising star digital artist Grant Yun ran an open edition on Nifty Gateway last night. More than 300 editions were sold at $299 in a 15-minute window, and the floor price of those is now at 0.57 ETH ($1380), up 360 percent in less than a day.
There's still money to be made in this market!
Traders just have to buckle down, tighten up, be patient, and be much more selective. There will be some very nice entries to blue-chip projects in the coming days and weeks as more owners capitulate. In the interim, focus on grinding allowlists, lower-cost mints from strong teams, and high upside opportunities.
NFT Projects, Reveals, and Mints to Watch This Week
There are some new mints, airdrops, and reveals this week that will certainly create opportunities worth paying attention to.
Here is what we're focused on this week:
- BBRC X Ivy Boys
- Ragnarok Reveal
- Forgotten Runes Warriors
- Rekt Guy from OSF
- PXN Reveal
BBRC x Ivy Boys
BBRC x Ivy Boys allowlist minting begins Monday 11:00 a.m. ET.
This art and fashion project from BBRC Studios is the genesis project in what is expected to be a large and growing ecosystem.
The Ivy Boys is a collection of 7.777 "utility-enabled PFPs" from South Korean artist and designer Aaron Chang. The project's Twitter page has amassed over 270,000 followers ahead of its mostly allowlist and raffle mint this week, with a limited public sale happening Tuesday morning.
With a relatively low mint price of 0.1 ETH - 0.12 ETH, expect a lot of attention on this one early in the week.
Batch 1 - 9 May, 11am EST / 3pm UTC— BBRC (@BBRCOfficial) May 9, 2022
Batch 2 - 10 May, 11pm EST / 3am UTC
Batch 3 - 10 May, 5am EST / 9am UTC
🚨 Beware of scammers and fake websites.
🚨 Minting will ONLY be on our OFFICIAL WEBSITE.
🚨 Our team will NEVER DM you first. pic.twitter.com/KMvTIzpkKd
Ragnarok will reveal on Monday at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The latest metaRPG project, Ragnarok Meta, took the NFT world by storm a week and a half ago, storming out of the gate from a 0.7 ETH mint price and immediately running to 3 ETH.
The project has continued to trade in the 2-3 ETH range in the past ten days with more than 14,000 ETH in volume on OpenSea in that time frame.
The latest NFT reveals have all traded mostly the same, with the rare lottery equity removed from the floor price within the first 24 hours of trading. It will be very telling if Ragnarok can buck that trend. After reveal, visit the button below to get your Ragnarok rarities!
Forgotten Runes Warriors
Forgotten Runes Warriors will mint on Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Forgotten Runes Wizards have been one of the most stable PFP projects over the past year and certainly has one of the strongest cult communities.
Now they look to expand that community for the first time, launching the Warriors project with a supply of 8,000 NFTs to join the Wizards in the Runiverse (and an upcoming TV series in development).
This "last price" dutch auction will begin at 2.5 ETH and settle at 0.6 ETH, which is on the pricier end of new mints. Given the Wizards floor at 2.4 ETH, expect this auction to run for a bit.
With @forgottenrunes, the !magic is in the details. @dotta @ElfJTrul @bearsnake_21 @LachnessMonsta and the rest of the fam at @magicmachine_ bring a rare combo of extreme talent, genuine love for their community, and long term thinking to everything they do.— crypD0nut.eth (@crypD0nut) May 6, 2022
Warriors💧5/11 🤤 pic.twitter.com/L5Zwpu7MXp
Rekt Guy from OSF
REKT Guy, a free mint from OSF - a rising star digital artist and co-founder of Degenz/Regenz - will have its eligibility snapshot on Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Holders of OSF's 1/1s, editions, and Degenz or Regenz will have first access to "rektguy" (very timely in this market). OSF is also running some raffles in collaboration with the PREMINT team, giving allowlist access to holders of CC0 projects like CrypToadz and mfers.
This is the exact kind of low entry project to pay attention to in these bear markets, and given OSF and partner Mando's reach with their Rug Radio show, expect some secondary market attention on this one.
1. Delighted to officially announce "rektguy"!— OSF (@osf_nft) May 5, 2022
It's an animated, generative pfp project which is going to be a FREE mint (mostly via allowlist).
Read on for some more info about the project 👇 pic.twitter.com/PxyyfZYDIS
The Doodles announced an upcoming free-to-claim NFT called the dooplicator, slated to drop on Thursday.
On May 6 we finally received the anticipated Doodles announcement, which included their newly appointed CEO Julian Holguin (previously of Billboard), hints at the next phase of their project roadmap, and high-level details on an upcoming airdrop called "the dooplicator."
It is still a mystery as to what this NFT will be or what it will do, but it is anticipated to be dilutive (meaning a net new NFT).
The Doodles floor ran to 24 ETH on the announcement but has since retraced in line with the broader market. This will certainly be a highlight, if not the highlight, of this week to come.
on may 12, 2022, every doodle holder will be able to claim a dooplicator.— doodles (@doodles) May 8, 2022
a functional piece of doodle machinery with extraordinary powers. pic.twitter.com/Jw0oPrGK1M
The PXN reveal date is still to be determined, but is something to pay attention to this week.
One of the lone bright spots of this past week in NFTs has been the launch and pre-reveal price action of the Phantom Network PXN: Ghost Division project.
The project minted 40 percent of its 10,000 NFT supply at 2 ETH in an innovative raffle-like drop this past Thursday, with the whitelist sale for the remaining 60 percent at 0.35 ETH the following day.
The market responded well once the full supply was released, as the floor moved from sub-2 ETH to above 4 ETH briefly, before settling in the mid-3s. Last night, the team tweeted a cryptic message that seems to indicate the reveal is coming in the next few days.
The city sleeps. pic.twitter.com/H4mbIt9J5h— Phantom Network (@projectPXN) May 9, 2022
This set has traded over 21,000 ETH on the secondary market, more than any other project besides Otherdeeds in the last week. Will it be able to pull off a bullish reveal in this market? Time will tell.
Overall it's definitely a fragile NFT market right now with a lot of uncertainty. In these times, data and news are more important than ever to help inform trade decisions. Make sure to follow our newsfeed and @LuckyNFTNews for breaking news and coverage of the NFT ecosystem.
Good luck, stay safe out there (maybe go outside) and happy minting!