NFTs Weekly Preview: Navigating the New Normal in NFTs

The crypto markets are reeling after a historic week, featuring the collapse of a top 10 market cap coin in LUNA (from $80 to $0.00018 in a matter of days) and the de-peg of UST (now at $0.077).

Over $1T in market cap was wiped out in the aftermath, and several feel the pain is just beginning.

BTC and ETH have been dragged down in all of this, with BTC at $29,700 (-13 percent on the week) and ETH at $2011 (-20 percent) at time of writing. Most alts are down even more, with several seeing 30%-40% draw downs (i.e. JEWEL, MACIG), though most have rallied a bit from the local bottoms (notably APE, up 50% from the bottom at $8.13).

It has been an extremely volatile few days, and overall crypto sentiment is about as negative as it's been in a long time. Mainstream media is littered with "the decline of crypto" headlines (even though BTC/ETH essentially trade in line with equities at this point), and the talking heads are victory lapping the destruction. 

There is some chatter about a slight relief rally this week, but most are predicting more near-term and mid-term pain - we aren't out of the woods yet.

How Have the NFT Markets Been Impacted in this Macro?

Well there's good news and bad news.

The bad news - liquidity is at its lowest levels in weeks, with a daily average of $73M in OpenSea revenue. The daily candles are trending lower by the day, and Sunday just recorded the lowest day of the year with just $33.8M in volume (and the lowest since August 2021). Gas was just 10 - 15 gwei for seemingly most of the day on Sunday, shining a light on how little activity there was.

PSA - stop touching so much grass and come back inside!

But there is some surprising good news - there is some green on the board even with this lower volume. Of the top NFT projects by floor price, 10 of the top 25 and 19 of the top 50 were in green on the week.

The top NFT winners of the week included:

• Degen Toonz at 1.68 ETH floor (+117%)
• The Currency by Damien Hirst at 4.3 ETH (+36%)
• PROOF Collective at 89.5 (+25%)
• Moonbirds at 24 ETH (+23%)

Losers of the week are headlined by Azuki, which had the most drama-filled week in recent NFT history as the founder Zagabond released information that he had previously founded (and left) three other projects (Phunks, Zunks and Tendies).

The pitchforks came out in full force. Zagabond has since apologized and came out with a plan to make those projects and NFT owners "whole," but the price action was not spared.

The Azuki floor fell all the way to 7 ETH at bottom, down 77 percent from its 7-day high of 30 ETH, before rallying back to 13.7 over the past few days.

BEANZ fell below 1 ETH at bottom, before returning to 1.69 ETH at time of writing. The rebound has been nice to see, though it doesn't seem like the project has recovered its market sentiment yet.

Other notable dips of the week included:

• Project PXN down to 2.34 ETH post-reveal (-37%)
• Ringers down to 39.99 ETH (-33%)
• Forgotten Runes Wizards down to 1.7 ETH after Warriors mint (-29%)
• Doodles down to 14.4 ETH after Dooplicator (-25%), though Dooplicator holds 3.5 ETH floor

It was certainly a volatile and mixed week in NFTs, and it feels like NFT market sentiment is lower than it's been in a while (though not as low as general crypto market sentiment).

Given the chaos of the past few weeks and general macro background, I expected a more quiet week of new drops - but this week is anything but quiet. 

There are some high profile drops this week to have on the radar:

• Karafuru 3D (May 17th)
• Lazy Lions Cubs (May 18th)
• Chimpers (May 20th)
• Kith Friends (May 20th)
• ChainRunners XR (May 20th)

Karafuru 3D

The Karafuru project has one on the strongest cult followings in NFTs, as highlighted by its Indonesian festival a few months ago which had more than 40,000 attendees. This new 3D avatar project is a collaboration with HYPEBEAST and atmos, and holders can expect to receive: metaverse-ready 3d avatars, merch, toys and collectibles, and future access to HYPEBEAST and atmos events.

The genesis set of Karafuru holds a 2.18 ETH floor for a 5,555 supply (with 42.5K ETH traded), so there will certainly be plenty of attention on this companion set. Plus, with a 15,555 NFT supply, new entrants will likely have their chance to join at a lower cost (bottom price capped at 0.25 ETH).

Lazy Lions Cubs

One of the most notorious PFP projects and communities finally launches its first companion set this week, as the Lazy Lions welcome Cubs on May 18.

This 22,000 piece NFT collection will include 10,000 NFTs airdropped to Lions owners (snapshot Wednesday morning) and then a 10,000 NFT Dutch auction, finally followed by a 2,000 NFT allowlist sale.

With the Dutch auction capped at 0.25 ETH at the bottom, and Lions carrying just a 0.9 ETH floor, there is a chance that this may not sell out right away (in line with how the Forgotten Runes Warriors mint played out last week). Yet, this is one certainly worth watching this week.

Chimpers

In what may be the most anticipated new drop of the week, renowned pixel artist Timpers brings his new generative-pixel set Chimpers to life in the Chimpverse!

The Chimpers ecosystem also includes The Bored Ape Chronicles (TBAC) and has existing NFTs with notable floors.

The 100 Genesis Chimpers hold a 45 ETH floor price (though just 85 ETH volume), and the TBAC NFTs (which provide allowlist minting for Chimpers) hold a 3.75 floor for the Collectors eBook. TBAC NFTs range from 4.9 ETH to 25 ETH for the six TBAC Episodes.

The mint will be solely allowlist and premint raffle based for the remainder (at 0.07 ETH), so expect some big secondary volume on this set in the first few days.

Read more about the project background and plans in the project's medium post. 

Kith Friends

Renowned lifestyle brand Kith makes its NFT debut in partnership with Invisible Friends with a new animated PFP drop entitled Kith Friends.

Ronnie Feig, CEO and Creative Director of Kith, has been working with the IF founder and artist Markus Magnusson to design this collection, and owners will receive physical products matching their Kith Friend as an added bonus.

This week's sale will include nine 1/1s to be auctioned on May 18, and then an allowlist mint on Friday for IF owners at a $1,000 price tag.

There will be three editions to choose from, and each piece is set to evolve over time and change its wardrobe and accessories. 

ChainRunners XR

The ChainRunners Universe is set to expand this week with the launch of the XR set, which will serve as the foundation of its 3D Runnerverse.

Each of the genesis traits have been rendered in 3D for this new free claim for owners, and then an additional 10,000 NFTs will be sold to the public.

The team made a recent change to ditch the Dutch auction, shifting from a 1 ETH start to a flat 0.1 ETH mint given market conditions.

This is likely a smart change, especially with the genesis set carrying just a 0.55 ETH floor.

Overall this is a very shaky and fragile NFT market for all of these projects to be launching into.

There very well may not be enough liquidity for all of them to sell out, and even if they do, it could lead to some "hot potato" rotation and quick rise and fall in prices.

But as most of the new drops have relatively low entry prices (compared to pricier drops in the past month), downside is somewhat capped. 

Concentration into the top end sets (notably Punks) seems to be a recent theme and expect that to continue as this bear market persists...which, again, is bad news for new projects.

Bear markets can produce winners though, and certainly some of these new drops have the potential to make it.

A strong founding team combined with an attractive entry price is always a good bet, and we may very well see that play out this week.

Good luck out there and happy minting!