Weekly NFT Preview | What Happens Now?

NFT NYC is now in the rearview mirror, and lingering sentiment seems to be overwhelmingly positive for the NFT space coming out of the event (minus the rampant covid cases). But that sentiment is related NFTs as an asset class and not any specific projects. At an individual level, it feels like we are in a much more precarious position right now.

Over the weekend top crypto trader GCR tweeted the following related to the crypto markets, but the message likely applies to the NFT markets right now as well "These are market conditions that will favor patience".

The NFT markets had a healthy rebound last week and were trending up ahead of events (Azuki) and after (Moonbirds), but those gains have now largely been erased in the PFP sector. Most of the top-end PFPs ended up chopping on the week, which is not an ideal outcome coming out of the biggest NFT event of the year. And it has some folks wondering - what happens next? What will be the next catalyst for a leg up in the PFP market?

It is a valid question and one we do not have the answers to at the moment. Certainly, a lot depends on the health/state of the crypto market (which also depends on the equity market). Both BTC and ETH have seen nice gains (or at least stabilization) since the huge drop just nine days ago, with BTC at $21k and ETH at $1205, up 2.6% and 7.1% respectively on the week. But the macro picture remains bleak, with oil continuing to be a leading issue and some major fears of the next round of inflation data. Not many folks are calling the bottom yet on the crypto markets.

One interesting factor to note is the share of stable coins in the overall crypto market. That percentage is now at record highs, tallying 17% as of last week (source JP Morgan and additional info here). This adds some merit to the "gut feel" that there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for the right entry. Buyers haven't left crypto entirely - they are waiting for the right entry.

This feels like a great analogy for the NFT markets right now. Daily and weekly liquidity are at yearly lows, with just ~100K ETH volume in NFTs this past week compared to ~150k ETH the week before, and some daily OpenSea candles in the $14mm-$15mm range. Anecdotally it feels like NFT interest is out there, but whales/bigger traders are waiting on the sidelines, looking for a better entry.

Looking at themes of the past week, the concentration on blue chips continued and the week was once again dominated by the Yuga ecosystem. BAYC, MAYC, and Otherdeeds combined for over 17K ETH alone, as their floors reached 92 ETH, 2.9 ETH, and 18.3 ETH respectively (with Deeds up over 20% on the week). These are some solid numbers and some reasons for confidence/bullishness on this group of projects coming out of a very successful ApeFest event headlined by Snoop and Eminem (and featuring a new song/music video with their apes). Some rumors of an Otherside announcement as well are likely driving this recent Deeds run and will be a major event to watch for this week.

Though Yuga found success last week price-wise, the mid-tier PFPs fell flat, as Doodles sits at 12.1 ETH down 2.5 percent and down even more from its weekly highs over 15 ETH, with Dooplicators down 27 percent post-reveal to 2.5 ETH. Azuki is technically up 9 percent at 10.9 ETH, but also down from weekly highs over 12 ETH, and Clone X is even on the week at 10.4 ETH.

But there is a new addition to the weekly board, likely the biggest winner of the week and maybe introducing a surprising new theme - free mints / new projects could be back! Moonrunners have traded 4500 ETH since their stealth drop on Friday and have run all the way to 0.8 ETH floor. They've caught NFT Twitter by storm and have definitely captured attention at least for the time being.

Their success is a strong indicator for teams looking to launch this week that success can be had, and there are certainly some more intriguing options for minters this week. 

Top NFT mints for this week include:

• Art Blocks Curated and Factory Drops
• OnChainMonkey: Karma
• The Possessed
• Top Hyped Drops (Celephais, Gridcraft/Llamascape)

Art Blocks Curated "Sudfah" and Factory Drop "Woah La Coaster"

Art Blocks is heating up and gaining momentum for a potential summer run. There has been a small run on several of the OG Curated projects, with many seeing floor increases of 60-200 percent in the past week. This momentum has helped new mints as well, with last week's Petro National being a very profitable mint, up over 100% on initial secondary before falling a bit over the last few days. Additionally, older Factory projects are slowly minting out, indicating increasing attention and demand for generative art overall.

This is a great backdrop for two major drops this week in the Curated project "Sudfah" and Factory drop "Woah La Coaster".

Starting with Sudfah from Melissa Wiederrecht, this collection with just a 401 NFT supply is a calligraphic set and the final project for Series 7. From the project site, the collection celebrates "the beauty that can emerge from chaos, mistakes, and accidents." The word Sudfah itself is Arabic for "happy accident" which seems to be the theme for the project.

Calligraphic sets have struggled a bit in the past for Art Blocks, with the set Asemica being on the Curated floor for an extended stretch, but early sentiment on this one seems to be pretty positive. The supply at just 401 is low for Curated as well and a bullish factor. Once this one catches steam on primary, expect a fast mint out (likely below 1 ETH, perhaps in the 0.5-0.7 ETH range).

The project mints at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, in a Dutch auction, starting at 4 ETH and decreasing linearly to 0.25 ETH. 

Then on July 1st at 12 p.m. ET the next Factory drop "Woah La Coaster" from Blockwares will drop. This collection of 199 generative roller coasters is just fun and gives happy vibes, inspired by "visions of a wondrous childhood" and seeks to emulate "simple yet emotive digital art." This is a very unique set with a low supply, and there should be some real interest in this one. The primary bear case is that it falls at the beginning of a long holiday weekend in the US and may not get the attention it typically would. The project mint will be a dutch auction starting at 1.5 ETH and falling to 0.1 linearly, and if it reaches the bottom it will likely go fast.

OnChainMonkey: Karma

This ape-related project with an absolute cult following is looking to expand with its Karma drop coming this week on the 29th and take the next step into its Monkeyverse. This new more colorful and vibrant PFP collection will come with utility, including:

• membership into the monkeyverse
• votes in the DAO
• access to Missions and the Banana economy 

There are some complicated mechanics behind the allowlist and ways to get on it, but Genesis holders will receive 10,000 NFTs and 9,000 will be available for the public for 0.5 ETH. This is an interesting price point, one where we have seen other PFP projects fail to mint out, and with OCM Genesis at just a 1.75 ETH floor, a full sellout is likely in question. The art is a big upgrade on the genesis set, and with the planned utility, perhaps this one can buck the trend.

The Possessed

The most hyped new drop of the week is likely The Possessed, the latest 10K PFP set promising to bring creativity to the NFT space. What's different or innovative about this set is that each Possessed NFT will include a "fully animated character" with two states - Blessed and Possessed. And the holders will be able to choose which to use for their PFPs. 

There does not appear to be too much more innovative besides that, with utility promised down the line but not spelled out. Still, the hype has been building for this one ahead of its mint on June 30 and the Twitter account has amassed 220K followers.

The art is definitely on the nicer end of the PFP spectrum and definitely a factor in favor of this project (alludes to a cross between Robotos and 3Landers). But the Allowlist will be 0.25 ETH and public at 0.35 ETH, hefty entry points for this market. This mint will be a strong test for new mints and if they can make it in this bear market above a 0.08 ETH mint price.

Top Hyped Drops

Here is a quick rundown of the remaining hyped drops happening this week (hyped = >50k followers on Twitter).

Celephais: This collection of 3,333 Dreamers is a new PFP set with Karafuru vibes artistically and ties to the Habibiz project as owners can burn $oil to mint the Celephais. With a goal to bring artists and visionaries together to build an artistic community, this set has amassed 74k following on Twitter and has a relatively average mint price at 0.099 ETH for presale (0.12 ETH for public). With this low supply and ties to an existing winner in Habibiz, this one has a good chance to sell out and drum up some demand on secondary.

Gridcraft / Llamascape: The latest Minecraft-inspired NFT P2E and metaverse project drops tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. ET with Gridcraft, with a collection of 9,800 Minecraft character NFTs. This collection of PFPs will have four different species, will be able to earn $BITS in the P2# Gridcraft experience, use those $BITS to buy virtual land in Grid City, and ultimately build their own world. There will also be PVP events and a marketplace where $BITS can be exchanged for in-game items.

With 9,800 NFTs at 0.3 ETH each, this is an expensive mint and will be an early indicator for those looking at The Possessed later in the week if there is demand at this price point. The Llamascape project has "merged" with Gridcraft as of late May, combining two communities and a net of over 280k Twitter followers. Perhaps this following will be enough to get this one to sell out - certainly one to watch this week.

Conclusion

It's a busier week for new drops than last week and there are some bullish tailwinds generated by Moonrunners giving these new projects some hope. But there are some higher entry points than we have seen lately, which might be difficult to overcome.

Overall in the NFT market, we have a lot of mixed information out there, with reasons to be bullish (NFT NYC momentum, art's resurgence) and reasons to be bearish (macro, falling mid-tier PFPs).  

So what should a savvy trader do with this information? Tread cautiously, make prudent risk/reward decisions (i.e. be careful with larger entry bets, concentrate on better options on the low end), and feel free to just be on the sidelines.

Stay up to date with all the latest news and info this week with the @LuckyNFTNews feed, and happy minting!