Morning Minute | Azuki In The Spotlight

GM!

Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints.

TylerD's Market Summary

Expectations are high for tonight's Azuki "Follow the Rabbit" event in Las Vegas. What's the most likely outcome? 

🐇 Azuki Follows The Rabbit

Today is Azuki day.

All eyes (at least in the PFP market) are paying attention to their major event tonight at Hakassan in Las Vegas.

Holders have been flying in from around the world for this one, and expectations are as high as ever.

Will they deliver? What are the most likely outcomes? And how will the market be impacted?

Let's start by looking at Azuki's history.

Azuki Timeline

Here is a comprehensive timeline of most of the major events in Azuki's 1.5 year history, along with the Azuki floor price (dates and floor price pulled using Lucky Trader's analytics page).

• Jan. 12, 2022 - Mint Day, priced at 1 ETH
• March 31, 2022 - Beanz airdrop "Check your wallets" at NFT LA event (Azuki at 18 ETH floor)
• Apr 3, 2022 - Azuki ATH of 32 ETH floor reached
• Apr 27, 2022 - Bobu launches (25.4 ETH floor)
• May 5, 2022 - Beanz reveal (Beanz floor at 4 ETH, down from local high of 7 ETH; Azuki floor at 27 ETH)
• May 9, 2022 - Zagabond outed as having previously created Phunks and Zunks (13.8 ETH floor)
• June 22, 2022 - "Enter the Alley" party in NYC (12.5 ETH floor)
• Aug 21, 2022 - Azuki ATL of 5.9 ETH floor reached
• Sept 23, 2022 - The Ruins are introduced in Azuki World (10.5 ETH floor)
• Oct 21, 2022 - Azuki gold-plated skateboard launch featuring their newly rolled out PBT technology (10.7 ETH floor)
• Nov 16, 2022 - Azuki teases Red Bull Racing F1 Sponsorship (9.94 ETH floor)
• Jan 12, 2023 - Hilumia (a metaverse city for the past, present and future of Azuki) is released on the Azuki 1-year anniversary (15.9 ETH floor)
• Mar 8, 2023 - The Museum of Dope Art opens inside Hilumia (14.85 ETH floor)
• June 23, 2023 - Azuki "Follow the Rabbit" party in Las Vegas (16.7 ETH floor)

A few takeaways from that walk down history lane:

• The floor reached ATH rapidly in less than 3 months, about 1 month before the Otherside launch and picotop of the 2022 NFT bull market
• The pace of news and events in 2022 was noticeably faster than 2023, with all of Azuki's primary expansion happening within their first 3 months, and virtually no major updates coming these past 5 months
• The 2 primary Azuki parties have led to wildly different results; their LA party with the Beanz airdrop drove their run to ATH of 32 ETH, while their mostly non-event "Enter the Alley" party at NFT NYC 2022 was a contributor of their path to ATL of 5.9 ETH in Aug 2022

Follow the Rabbit Expectations and Market Impact

So which outcome will today's Follow the Rabbit party have? 

The LA party / Beanz airdrop path to ATH? Or the NYC party (non-event) path to ATL?

It feels like there are 4 potential outcomes of this party:

• A token launch - 5% likelihood
• Expansion via a new NFT (airdrop) - 40% likelihood
• A wildcard event (game, metaverse update, etc.) - 40% likelihood
• Nothing, it's just a party - 15% likelihood

A token seems pretty much off the table to me right now, with Azuki based in the U.S., ongoing regulatory issues, and the larger question of what it would be used for.

And no update at all also seems pretty unlikely, given the hype around this event and how little else they've announced this year.

So it comes down to a new NFT (airdrop) or some unexpected launch. 

It seems to me that most holders are expecting a new NFT here. That doesn't totally make sense to me, given the brutal bear market we're in and with Beanz at just 1.4 ETH. I don't see where the demand comes from or how it's needed right now.

That leaves the wildcard option, my current bet. I think they'll announce something unexpected and a total curveball. And it will likely string holders along for a new event in the future, to prevent a "sell the news" event.

So how will the market be impacted? 

Well a token or NFT drop will instantly drop the Azuki floor by the value of the airdrop, almost certainly.

A non-event will also likely drop the floor, as there has been a lot of buying these past few weeks solely for this event.

The only outcome that holds the floor is a wildcard announcement and promises of more to come, but even that seems tough.

Most likely, we'll see a dip. And with Azuki loans over 700, a bad dip could lead to some liquidations. 

Expect volatility.

And if you're in Vegas - have fun! This party sounds awesome.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• Trading volume came in over 17k ETH on Thursday; NFTs saw major red again, with BAYC down 5% to 36.4 ETH and most other major PFPs down 5-10%
• Alts by adidas teased its Chapter 2 and the Rift Valley Motel Vending Machine opening soon on June 27
• The Grapes team shared news that they are coming to Roblox with "Grape Islands: The Bad Bunch" launching soon
• World of Women partnered with the Champions Leauge winner FC Barcelona Femini for Masterpiece #2, a 1/1 piece going up for auction on June 26 on OpenSea
• ApeCoin Special Council voting closed for the initial phase, with capetain trippy, threadguy, karmapocket, swickie and waabam moving on to the 2nd round of elections (June 22-28)
• Zora launched an Ethereum layer-2 solution built on Optimism Foundation's OP stack, focusing on artists, creators, and communities
• DraftKings Reignmakers introduced new changes to its game, including new player profile pages and an announcements page

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• The crypto market chopped on Thursday; BTC +0.2% to $30,076; ETH -0.5% to $1,878; PEPE +6% to a $604M MC
• Prime Trust has paused withdrawals after the Nevada Department of Business and Industry declared that it has a "shortfall of customer funds" and may be insolvent
• Slim Jim released its innovative Meataverse, the brand's first web3-based digital membership club and interactive NFT platform, along with 10,000 free NFTs the GigaJims (minted on Polygon)
• Gods Unchained made its debut on the Epic Games Store (Fortnite creator), with economic and governance changes in the pipeline for the IMX game
• PartyDAO introduced its "Multiplayer" Ethereum application, allowing groups to use DeFi, collect NFTs, play games and more as an alternative to a multi-sig wallet

🚀 NFT Total Volume

• BAYC (3,690 ETH, 36.9 ETH Floor)
• Azuki (2,732 ETH, 16.74 ETH)
• MAYC (2,554 ETH, 7.03 ETH)
• DeGods (583 ETH, 9.38 ETH)
• Wrapped Cryptopunks (536 ETH, 49.1 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase

• Celestial (200%, 0.75 ETH Floor)
• On the Edge of Oblivion (60%, 3.75 ETH)
• Sproto Gremlins (55%, 0.32 ETH)
• Distortion Genesis (52%, 1.69 ETH)
• GRIDS (51%, 0.29 ETH)
• DRIP DROP (44%, 0.57 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is one of the more important days in the PFP market in quite some time with the major Azuki event looming (described above). 

Other than that, the Tony Babel mint will be a highlight today (though not cheap), and then Truth Labs returning with Big Inc. will be one to watch as well.

If you want more, see the full list of today's drops from Swizzy's daily mint monitor. 

• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET); 0.06529 ETH
• Tony Babel Vintage Editions (11:00 a.m. ET); 0.3-0.9 ETH
• TIMEPieces GOOFBALLS (1:00 p.m. ET)
• Big Inc. Acceptance Letter Burn (4:00 p.m. ET)
• Azuki - Follow the Rabbit 

Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's NFT Calendar page.