Morning Minute | Flash Crash and Rebound
GM!
Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints:
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TylerD's Market Summary
The NFT market crashed on Friday in a major capitulation event.
Was it the buying opportunity of the year?
📉 Blur Farming Fallout
It finally happened.
Everyone's Blur fears came true.
The Blur whale farmers pulled their bids on Friday across the major high-volume collections, and panic ensued.
The BAYC project was the focus of attention, with it's floor down 10% to 72 ETH following OSF and Mando selling their 71 apes just a few days before.
Machi had infamously acquired over 160 apes, and everyone was concerned that he would crash the floor.
Well, Friday afternoon he started selling and started a cascade of events.
The BAYC floor quickly fell from 72 ETH to 68 ETH as bid walls were pulled. Then the big wall at 65 ETH was pulled, and the floor briefly fell to 59 ETH.
This set off alarm bells of BendDAO loans coming into liquidation, and several NFT traders seemingly sold off their bags.
It was capitulation.
But similar to past panic events, this turned out to be an incredible buying opportunity.
By the Numbers:
The capitulation dip was eaten up in just a few hours on Friday, and most collections saw nearly a full recovery by the end of the weekend.
Here are some stats to show the dip and subsequent rebound:
- BAYC: Friday low of 58 ETH; now at 71 ETH (+22% from bottom)
- MAYC: Friday low of 14.3 ETH; now at 15.3 ETH (+7%)
- Checks - VV Editions: Friday low of 1.48 ETH; now at 2.12 ETH (+43%)
- Opepens: Friday low of 0.48 ETH; now at 0.8 ETH (+66%)
- Pudgy Penguins: Friday low of 4.6 ETH; now at 5.35 (+16%)
It was a similar story across most other high-volume PFPs - a quick 10-20% dip and then rebound.
So is the market healthier? Are we past the Blur farming volatility?
While it does anecdotally feel like the markets reset a bit, Blur farming is very alive and well.
In fact, TVL is at all-time-high of $146.7M this morning, and seemingly up only.
Blur is not going anywhere.
🐸 The Pepes Are Notable
Vince Van Dough launched his first set of Notable Pepe cards on Sunday afternoon, and the market took quite kindly to them.
Five new cards hit the market, with the lowest holding a 0.488 ETH floor (Pepe Invasion), and Notamoto and Pepe's Chair holding 4.369 ETH and 4.95 ETH floors up top.
That was some major ROI for minters, as each card minted for just 0.069 ETH (that's a quick 71x for Pepe Chair minters).
The success of the cards also led the Pepe Checks, the "raffle ticket" NFT of this ecosystem, to briefly surge 50% to 0.33 ETH before setting at 0.0276.
We will see how demand holds up as more cards are minted in the coming weeks, but the success of the first launch cannot be denied.
Nice job, VVD.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
Here is a list of the other major headlines from the weekend:
- Trading volume came in at 46k ETH on Saturday and then just 38k ETH on Sunday, the lowest levels since Blur farming Season 2 began
- The Million Dollar Key - Mongraal turns down a 690 ETH ($1.1M) bid for his Dookey Dash key; Memeland ups the stakes and enters a 999 WETH bid this monring ($1.6M)
- Coinbase extends the mint window for Base, Introduced for another full week; supply reaches 369,000
- Blur removes 3rd party flag restrictions from its platform, enables bid acceptance
- Ryan Carson announces on Friday that he is leaving the Daily Dose and stepping away from Web3; Zeneca to take over the Daily Dose
- Joe Pease sells his new mint "Everything is Temporary |" for 120 ETH to Vince Van Dough (using some Pepe funds for art)
- Valhalla launches their own marketplace to hedge against "unstable marketplace policies," has 0% fee
- Matchbooks by Aaron Alto soared 750% to 0.02 ETH after speculation of ties to Jack Butcher are surfaced
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
- The crypto market was up slightly on Sunday; BTC +0.7% at $23,400 and ETH +2.2% at $1,640
- The SEC is coming after emojis, after a federal judge rules that 🚀📈💰indicate financial returns in Dapper Labs case
- Founder of Electronic Arts, Trip Hawkins, is joining Web3 gaming start-up Games for a Living
- Overlord shared its vision for reaching 100M users, led by gaming and following Pokemon's blueprint in a Friday blog post
🚀 NFT Total Volume
- BAYC (5,933 ETH, 71 ETH Floor)
- MAYC (3,821 ETH, 15.3 ETH)
- Moonbirds (3,627 ETH, 6.35 ETH)
- Clone X (2,727 ETH, 4.9 ETH)
- Doodles (2,539 ETH, 5.4 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
- Matchbook (755%, 0.02 ETH Floor)
- Kevin Abosch open edition (72%, 0.26 ETH)
- Potatoz (17%, 2.08 ETH)
- DigiDaigaku (13%, 7.9 ETH)
- Opepens (10%, 0.8 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today has the standard Meme Card and Art Blocks drops.
The Meme Card is by Shavonne Wong and seems to have a lot of fans already, so there may be some strong demand for this one.
Art Blocks is a little less interesting at 350 supply and generally bearish tailwinds in that market.
- Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET); 0.069 ETH mint
- SHARI (12:00 p.m. ET); 0.0888 ETH mint
- Art Blocks Presents: Jenim by Orr Kislev & Alona Rodeh (11:00 a.m. ET); Dutch auction
- JOYWORLD - reveal (1:00 p.m. ET)
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.
