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Additionally, I'll cover a couple of top stacks, break down the main slate, highlight any injuries, and point out a few target players for the week. Let's dive in!
Portfolio Recap & Strategy for Week 12
After DraftKings revealed the future utility of cards, I retained most of my portfolio, emphasizing building my 2023 collection via my extensive 2022 collection, which boasts over 1,500 NFT cards with top-tier players.
Thanks to Lucky Trader's lineup optimizer, we can now seamlessly create our lineups.
Interested in seeing what makes up my 2000+ NFT card collection? Check it out here!
At the start of the week, I anticipated a strong showing from My Portfolio with no byes in the NFL for Week 12. However, the game schedule's dispersion limited my ability to field the most optimal lineup. While I hold a couple of ELITE tier cards for Miami and Chicago's Justin Fields, the slate's distribution didn't align as favorably as I had hoped. Matt Stafford stands as my sole ELITE tier quarterback on the playing slate.
Though I have Kenny Pickett, his performance hasn't contributed much to securing the cash line this year, let alone winning a GPP. Nonetheless, with several high-projected running backs set to play, my teams seem promising. As I'm required to include two running backs in each main lineup, I opted to bring up a quarterback from the RARE tier.
Calvin Ridley tends to have ceiling games with Trevor Lawrence, making the choice of Lawrence as the "pull-up" player relatively straightforward. On this main slate, I have three SuperStars. Pairing Cooper Kupp with Stafford was the most straightforward of the three choices. Between Saquon Barkley and Ja’Marr Chase, considering Chase's reliance on his quarterback more than Barkley, I leaned towards Barkley. The final two spots were filled by pieces from the Philly-Buffalo game.
Forming my second lineup was fairly straightforward. I slotted in Rachaad White and Joe Mixon alongside Stafford and Kupp, all at the ELITE tier, allowing me to deploy almost any non-SuperStar as the "pull-up" card. Stefon Diggs has been a consistent letdown lately, but perhaps that indicates a change in fortune? It's a choice between him and A.J. Brown for the spot.
In the third lineup, the Pickett-Pickens stack was an obvious choice. I added Ja’Marr Chase to bolster the lineup. The remaining two spots were filled with another combo piece, albeit a much lesser one, from the Philly-Buffalo game.
With several 4:00 cards left in my portfolio, I set up a "shell lineup" to grant maximum flexibility for shuffling players in and out of lineups to optimize my chances of scoring big.
Now, let’s delve into some of the most pivotal games of the slate.
Slate Breakdown: Week 12
Week 11 offers a Classic Slate with 11 games. Instead of a detailed breakdown, I highlight crucial statistics, key injuries, and a few primary targets.
Game Info
- Top Projected Game: New England vs New York
- Lowest Projected Game: New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
- Top Projected Team: Philadelphia
- Lowest Projected Team: New York & Cincinnati
Key Injuries & Replacements
- Jerrick McKinnon (Out) > Pacheco + projection
- Mark Andrews (Out for the season) > all Balt WRs & Isiah Likely
- Michael Thoams (IR) > Olave & Shaheed ++ projection
- Taylor Henicke ( Benched) > Desmond Ridder back in
- Joe Burrow (Out for the season) > Todd Browning in
- Tee Higgins (Out) > Volume to Chase & Boyd
- Noah Brown (Out) > Tank Dell & Nico Collins ++ projection
- Tampa Bay Secondary (Injured)> Colts wide-receivers
- Kyren Williams (Returns from IR)
Top Game Stacks:
- Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts w/ Steffon Diggs & A.J. Brown ( 65 points)
- Trevor Lawernce or C.J. Stroud w/ Travis Etienne and Ridley/Kirk or Dell/Collins (any combination comes up to a projection around 55-60 points)
- Gardner Minshew or Baker Mayfield w/ Jonathan Taylor/Rachaard White & Mike Evans/Pittman. Also viable Josh Downs & Chris Godwin.
- Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts w/ D'Andre Swift/ James Cook, and DeVonta Smith (A.J. Brown/Stefon Digs).
Top Targets
- QBs: Josh Allen (BUF), Trevor Lawerence (JAX)
- RBs: James Cook (BUF), Rachaard White (TB)
- WRs: DeVonta Smith (PHI), Mike Evans (TB) , Josh Downs (IND)
There you have it! Good luck to everyone this week with your Reignmakers NFL Week 12 Lineup!
Click here to check out our entire suite of premium tools including our Portfolio Lineup Optimizer.
Only three days remain until the much-anticipated Thanksgiving DraftKings Reignmakers slate, and the Holiday Millionaire Maker returns for its second consecutive season. Lucky Trader has you covered from every angle, featuring our lineup optimizer, which now showcases the optimal combinations of lineups eligible for the Millionaire Maker contest.
We're also excited to announce our Contest Predictor for the Holiday Millionaire Maker, which will be unveiled later today.
In addition, we'll also present a comprehensive Holiday Value Model, categorizing players by position. It includes essential details like expected card circulation, current marketplace prices, and much more. Accessible for all tiers of our Reignmakers membership. Join our Discord to receive the link to the model!
In this article, we'll delve into the marketplace overview, check out the expected cards in circulation for each player, and highlight some of the top-value findings as we approach Thanksgiving Day. Let's get started.
Quarterbacks
The injury scare involving Geno Smith over the weekend rattled the quarterback market for this contest. Recent reports from Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll suggest Smith is likely to play against San Francisco on Thursday night.
Despite the injury and facing a formidable defense, Smith remains the lowest-projected and cheapest quarterback on the slate.
Our Holiday Value Metrics tool offers varied perspectives on data analysis. Considering projected points for the slate and marketplace price, Geno boasts the best value at .24. Sam Howell follows closely, with a marketplace price of around $90 and a projected 17 points for the slate.
Running Backs
Injuries to starting running backs Kenneth Walker and Aaron Jones from the Thanksgiving lineup might sideline them. This led to significant fluctuations in the running back market, boosting the values of their backups, AJ Dillon and Zach Charbonnet.
Despite these changes, both backups offer solid value based on current projections. Another notable value emerges in Brian Robinson Jr., mainly if Antonio Gibson doesn't play. Robinson projects around 17 points on the slate and is priced below $50 per addition, ranking third among running backs.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
The CeeDee Lamb phenomenon continues, with his card prices far exceeding any others on the slate, hovering around $280 per edition. He holds exceptional value, considering his recent performance and versatility across three lineup positions. According to our model, other valuable options include Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson.
Regarding tight ends, George Kittle stands out as the primary target in this position. His prices are currently around $43, exceeding the expected value by $22 according to our model. For those seeking lineup differentiation, Jake Ferguson, Logan Thomas, and Luke Musgrave show positive value based on expected slate points.
Flex
Usually, this spot features players mentioned above or from the positions discussed earlier. However, certain players, particularly from the defenses of San Francisco and Dallas, offer solid value at around $8 in the marketplace. In shorter slates this season, kickers and defenders have often entered optimal lineups. Choosing one of these players might diversify your lineup, albeit with limited upside.
We will be back Wednesday with an update on the market and a few targets going into the Thursday slate. Until next time, Good Luck!
All players in the DraftKings Reignmakers community eagerly await the arrival of the season's biggest contest, the Holiday Millionaire Maker. But, before that slate, let's build up the bankroll here in Week 11.
For those new to this article, I'll provide a brief overview. I'll take you through my entire portfolio, sharing the strategy I plan to deploy this week. My focus is on playing my most significant lineups at the ELITE tier while engaging in Mass Multi-Entry (MME) for both the RARE and CORE tiers using the Lucky Trader Lineup Optimizer.
Additionally, I'll cover a couple of top stacks, break down the main slate, highlight any injuries, and point out a few target players for the week. Let's dive in!
Portfolio Recap & Strategy for Week 11
After DraftKings revealed the future utility of cards, I retained most of my portfolio, emphasizing building my 2023 collection via my extensive 2022 collection, which boasts over 1,500 NFT cards with top-tier players.
Thanks to Lucky Trader's lineup optimizer, we can now seamlessly create our lineups.
Interested in seeing what makes up my 2000+ NFT card collection? Check it out here!
After weeks of adding to My Portfolio to create competitive lineups, I've reached a turning point in the season. It seems that My Portfolio has grown as much as it will outside of the forthcoming holiday packs in the next few days. Now, my focus is on crafting the best lineups possible, maximizing the potential for optimal late swaps, and leveraging the assets I've accumulated over the past 11 weeks.
The initial choice always involves pairing up with my Miami Dolphins. With De’Von Achane back in the lineup, I have the chance to create a full Miami Dolphins stack. However, considering the limited fantasy points available, I doubt all of them will reach their ceiling games. Thus, I plan to split the lineup—pairing the WRs with Tua and reserving Achane for another build.
Having acquired Joe Mixon a few weeks ago, I've established a robust foundation of Bengals players for the remainder of the season. The team, which is on the fringe of the playoffs, has shown considerable improvement since the beginning of the season, reflected in the rising prices of their cards. For today's slate against Houston, I plan to align most of my fantasy points from the Bengals through Mixon, Burrow, and Chase.
Presently, the decision rests on choosing the running back to pair with Tua and the other Miami Dolphins players. Considering recent performances and the consistent volume received, I'm inclined towards Rachaard White over options like Aaron Jones and James Cook. While both Jones and Cook are solid running backs, they will serve as valuable assets for additional lineups.
The return of Justin Fields and Matt Stafford to their starting quarterback positions following lengthy injuries significantly bolstered my portfolio. Utilizing them allows me to elevate a RARE card such as Diggs, Lamb, or Ekeler. This approach proves more advantageous than elevating a quarterback and relying on lesser-projected players from the ELITE tier.
Utilizing my other superstar running back, Saquon Barkley, I'll pair him up with Justin Fields and incorporate a couple of other elite players from My Portfolio. Aaron Jones will be matched with Matt Stafford and his superstar wide receiver, Cooper Kupp, completing the lineup in the most optimal setting for the 4:00 window.
The remainder of my cards will be allocated to prize pack party contests, omitting the 4:00 window games to maintain flexibility for potential player swaps in those lineups.
Now, let’s delve into some of the most pivotal games of the slate.
Slate Breakdown: Week 11
Week 11 offers a Classic Slate with 11 games. Instead of a detailed breakdown, I highlight crucial statistics, key injuries, and a few primary targets.
Game Info
- Top Projected Game: Chicago vs. Detroit
- Lowest Projected Game: New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
- Top Projected Team: Houston
- Lowest Projected Team: New York Giants
Key Injuries & Replacements
- Khalil Herbert is returning from IR
- De'Von Achane is returning from IR
- Justin Fields & Matt Stafford are back starting
- Gerald Everett (Out) > Donald Parham
- Antonio Gibson (Doubtful)> Brian Robinson Jr.
- Hayden Hurst (Out)
- Treylon Burks (Out)
- Dameon Pierce (Out)
- Noah Brown (Doubtful) Nico Collins in
Top Game Stacks:
- Tua Tagovailoa w/ Tyreek Hill & Josh Jacobs 60 Points
- Tua Tagovailoa w/ Tyreek Hill & Davante Adams 60 Points
- Dak Prescott w/ CeeDee Lamb & Adam Thielen 58 Points
- Justin Herbert w/ Keenan Allen & Aaron Jones 55 Points
- Justin Herbert w/ Austin Ekeler & Aaron Jones 55 Points
- Matt Stafford (or Geno Smith) w/ Cooper Kupp & Puka Nacua or Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf 55 Points
Top Targets
- QBs: Justin Fields (CHI), Trevor Lawerence (JAX)
- RBs: Travis Etienne Jr. (Jax), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
- WRs: Adam Thielen (CAR), Puka Nacua (LAR)
There you have it! Good luck to everyone this week with your Reignmakers NFL Week 11 Lineup!
Click here to check out our entire suite of premium tools including our Portfolio Lineup Optimizer.
In the Reignmakers community, anticipation is building as the Millionaire Maker event looms just nine days away. In the upcoming days, the marketplace is expected to buzz with activity as users strategize and position themselves for the optimal chance of securing the coveted $1,000,000 first-place prize.
This article aims to provide an initial slate breakdown, offering essential information to help you optimize your portfolio in preparation for the significant contest. Let's begin with a schedule of the games:
- Game 1: Green Bay at Detroit, 12:30 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Washington at Dallas: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Game 3: San Fransisco at Seattle: 8:20 p.m. ET
Future content around the late swap optimization process will come but for now we are just going to set up the slate as the marketplace continues to develop over the next couple days.
Next, we will examine players by position, delving into their projected points for the game, the likelihood of being in an optimal lineup based on those projections, and potential values for different sets of serial number ranges.
Quarterbacks: 6
Notes:
With Dak performing at such a high level, one could easily argue that his percentage chance of being in the optimal lineup is even higher than the suggested 23% shown in the graphic.
Adjusting his projected points for a ceiling game compared to other quarterbacks increases his values by about 40% across the board, with his average card price estimated at around $120. Purdy's dual usage, playing on both Thanksgiving and Christmas, will also maintain his card values at a premium compared to others on the slate.
Running Backs: 12
Notes:
A perfect combination of dual-use and being the highest projected player at his position is what makes Christian McCaffrey's cards the most valuable in this holiday set. Valued at least double the next closest projected running back, CMC's cards will likely be highly sought after in the coming weeks.
Wide Receivers: 22
Notes:
The dual threat of CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown overpowers the wide receivers on this slate. However, choosing Amon-Ra means forgoing Christian McCaffrey, as lineups only permit one SuperStar. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are likely to be the next most sought-after wide receivers on this slate due to their dual utility use and the percentage change in the optimal lineup.
Tight Ends:10
Notes:
Facing off against other wide receivers in their position slot significantly reduces the value of these cards compared to if they were in their designated positions. Nevertheless, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Jake Ferguson have all demonstrated ceiling-level performances this year.
Kickers & Defense: 30
Like tight ends competing against wide receivers in their position slot, kickers and defenders can only be utilized in the flex spot for Reignmakers, competing against running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. However, both Dallas, San Francisco, and the kickers have demonstrated the ability to score over 20 points in games this season.
For those premium members all of this information, including links to each player’s marketplace link and a downloadable copy to make your own values and projections! Make sure to join our DISCORD for the link to the sheet! Good luck ripping/flipping and collecting these next 9 days!
THIS IS IT! DraftKings will drop its NFL Reignmakers Holiday Set, which awards users cards needed to compete for a top prize of $1 million. The contest will take place on Thanksgiving and offers a total of $2 million in prizes.
In this article, we will delve into the contents of the upcoming holiday packs, exploring the various opportunities they present for yielding rewards, including the enticing chance at winning $1 million. The breakdown will encompass details such as the pack's cost, ongoing promotions, and other essential information necessary to embark on the journey toward that coveted $1,000,000 prize.
Make sure to stay tuned daily until Thanksgiving for more targeted content related to this contest. This will include an exact card estimator for each card in the holiday set, as well as a tool takeover showcasing the holiday value metrics tool and the contest lineup value predictor.
Holiday Pack Details: Pack Distribution
First, let's talk about the highlights from the pack, dropping for a price of $129.99 and have the following distribution:
- TWO Holiday Set Feast Cards (RARE Tier)
- ONE RARE Tier Air It Out Set Card
- ONE Holiday Set Flurry Card or ELITE+ Air It Out Set Card
- ONE CORE Air It Out Set Card
Next is the average results per pack by rarity tier, it is as follows:
- CORE: 1.000 cards per pack*
- RARE: 3.777 cards per pack*
- RARE Holiday Feast: 2.000 per pack*
- RARE Holiday Flurry: 0.777 per pack*
- RARE Air It Out: 1.000 per pack*
- ELITE: 0.190 cards per pack*
- LEGENDARY: 0.029 cards per pack*
- REIGNMAKER: 0.004 cards per pack*
*Average Results Per Pack by Rarity Tier rounded to the third decimal
A lot is going on here...But don't worry. Let's simplify the key details of each holiday pack. In each pack, you will receive two RARE Holiday Feast cards. These Feast cards hold a unique significance as they are the only cards eligible for the Millionaire Maker contest on Thanksgiving.
The lineup structure for this contest follows the classic Reignmakers format. It includes one quarterback, running back, wide receiver, wide receiver or tight end, and flex position that can feature either a kicker or a defender.
It's essential to note that in the event of identical lineups, the total serial number of the lineup will serve as a tiebreaker, with the lowest combined serial number emerging as the winner.
Distribution of lineup:
- QB
- RB
- WR
- WR/TE
- Flex (K,DST,WR,RB,TE)
Now, let's explore the lineup possibilities. There are a total of 7,200 quarterbacks in these packs, with an additional 800 available for the craft and burn recipe. On average, there's approximately one quarterback for every five-holiday packs (3,600/7,200). However, it's important to note that the distribution is random, meaning there's no guarantee of getting a full lineup or a quarterback in a set of five packs.
Considering you receive two Holiday Feast cards per pack and given an average distribution, one would likely need to purchase five packs to assemble a lineup for the Millionaire Maker contest. This considers the variance in obtaining the necessary cards, especially quarterbacks, for entry.
Certainly, these holiday packs offer more than just cards for the Millionaire Maker contest. Each pack includes either 1 ELITE+ or better AIR IT OUT card or 1 RARE Flurry card. The Flurry cards grant entry into a Christmas contest with a top prize of $100,000 and a total prize pool of $400,000. Additionally, the pack contains 1 RARE and 1 CORE AIR IT OUT card, both playable in the regular weekly contests throughout the rest of the year.
Holiday Pack Details: Deep Dive Analysis on EV
Now, let's analyze the expected value (EV) of the pack. Taking into account all the components, we have $2.4 million in prizes for the two holiday contests, along with the distribution of other cards in the pack. This breakdown gives us a comprehensive view of the EV across the different segments of the pack drop.
Holiday Cards: $2,700,000 ($2.4 million for the holiday contests and $300K for rest of season utility)
AIR IT OUT Cards: $2,300,000
Total: $5,000,000
Number of Packs: 31,659
Total Estimated Value Per Pack: $160.00 (rounded)
With a purchase price of $129.99, plus two different promotions where if you buy three packs you get $50 in DK credit, and if you buy 30 you get a $555 DFS Millionaire Maker ticket a user could bring down the average cost to around $109.82.
When doing so, that creates almost $50 of positive EV, and a chance at $1,000,000!
Holiday Pack Details: Range of Outcomes
Lastly, we’ll dive slightly in the player pool and talk about the range of outcomes these packs COULD see. Here’s the worst pack distribution one could receive from these packs:
Card #1 “Feast"Jake Moody (Kicker) $10 value
Card #2 “Feast" Anders Carlson (Kicker) $10 Value
Card #3 “AIR IT OUT" ELITE Minkah Fitzpatrick $15 Value
Card # 4 "AIR IT OUT" RARE Any Defense: $2 Value
Card #5: "AIR IT OUT" CORE Any defense: $0.25 value
Total Value: $37.25
Just for transparency purposes, let's talk about one of the best:
Card #1 “Feast” Dak Prescott No. 1 Serial (QB) $7,500 estimated value
Card #2 “Feast" Christian McCaffery No. 1 Serial (RB) $7,500 estimated value
Card #3 “AIR IT OUT" REIGNMAKER Justin Jefferson (WR) $5,000 estimated value
Card #4 “AIR IT OUT" RARE Puka Nacua (WR) ($50) estimated value
Card #5 “AIR IT OUT” CORE CeeDee Lamb (WR) ($15) estimated value
Total Value: $20,065
OK, that’s all for now! We are thrilled and excited to bring you the best and most in-depth coverage in the Reignmaker community. Be sure to check out all of our offerings by clicking here.
Make sure to check out all the available players here.
Did you get your free Reignmakers pack yet? Learn more in our guide.
All eyes in the DraftKings Reignmakers community eagerly anticipate the release of the Millionaire Maker Holiday packs set to hit the market tomorrow. But before that, there's a need to build up the bankroll to afford a couple of these packs. And what better way to do that than by exploring the best possible lineups and card editions for Week 10?
For those new to this article, I'll provide a brief overview. I'll take you through my entire portfolio, sharing the strategy I plan to deploy this week. My focus is on playing my most significant lineups at the ELITE tier while engaging in Mass Multi-Entry (MME) for both the RARE and CORE tiers using the Lucky Trader Lineup Optimizer. Additionally, I'll cover a couple of top stacks, break down the main slate, highlight any injuries, and point out a few target players for the week. Let's dive in!
Portfolio Recap & Strategy for Week 10
After DraftKings revealed the future utility of cards, I retained most of my portfolio, emphasizing building my 2023 collection via my extensive 2022 collection, which boasts over 1,500 NFT cards with top-tier players.
Thanks to Lucky Trader's lineup optimizer, we can now seamlessly create our lineups.
Interested in seeing what makes up my 2000+ NFT card collection? Check it out here!
After navigating through nine weeks of play, a recurring theme in my portfolio has been the constant need for one more running back to solidify a quality lineup. However, the tide has shifted, and now, with additions in each of the last three weeks, including two last week, I find myself with an abundance of running backs. For today's slate, five of them are projected among the top 10 running back scores, showcasing a surplus of talent. The challenge is finding the right complementary pieces, especially at the wide receiver and quarterback positions.
Recognizing this challenge before the week began, I knew I only had one superstar on my roster for this slate. I chose Ja'Marr Chase as my sole buy this week, securing his elite edition for approximately $310 right after it was announced that Tee Higgins wouldn't be playing. This decision proved to be a wise investment, with Chase's floor prices rising to around $450 since the announcement of Higgins being out and Chase himself playing. Thus, it appears that the investment in Chase at around $300 was indeed a solid move.
Having acquired Joe Mixon a few weeks ago, I've established a robust foundation of Bengals players for the remainder of the season. The team, which is on the fringe of the playoffs, has shown considerable improvement since the beginning of the season, reflected in the rising prices of their cards. For today's slate against Houston, I plan to align most of my fantasy points from the Bengals through Mixon, Burrow, and Chase.
Considering my portfolio's surplus of running backs, I need to pair these three with another strong option. Given that Aaron Jones and Green Bay are facing Pittsburgh, a team I also have cards of, I opted for Rachaad White, who has been playing exceptionally well in Tampa Bay. As the fifth player in this lineup, I've included Jahan Dotson, who has a 4:25 PM game. I can swap him out if I decide to upgrade the position after assessing the performance of all four of my 1:00 PM players, or I might stick with him and anticipate a ceiling game, as he has demonstrated in recent weeks.
In my second lineup, leveraging the value from acquiring Kenny Pickett at a low-cost weeks ago, I'm pairing him with Aaron Jones and George Pickens for a game stack. Utilizing my Calvin Ridley card, which has seen a significant drop in value since I purchased it for around $700 and now has a market price of around $180, has been challenging, given Ridley's individual struggles this season. However, being on a team likely headed for the playoffs, I still see potential in Ridley, especially at these reduced prices.
Like my approach with Dotson in the first lineup, I'll include a player participating in the 4:25 PM window for the last spot. This allows flexibility for a late swap if all the players in the 1:00 PM window perform well.
For my total late swap lineup, Saquon Barkley is set to face off against Dallas in the 4:25 PM window. With the early games not yielding many fantasy points, I've paired him with CeeDee Lamb, creating a lineup with three players starting in the 4:25 PM window. This setup enables me to make a late swap for an optimal lineup if there are no standout high scorers from the 1:00 PM slate. The last member of this team is Alexander Mattison, who reassumes the bell-cow role in Minnesota following the season-ending injury to Cam Akers.
Week 10 Slate Breakdown
Week 10 offers a Classic Slate with ten games. Instead of a detailed breakdown, I highlight crucial statistics, key injuries, and a few primary targets.
Game Info
- Top Projected Game: Detroit vs. LAC
- Lowest Projected Game: Tennesee vs Tampa Bay
- Top Projected Team: Dallas
- Lowest Projected Team: New York Giants
Key Injuries & Replacements
- Nico Collins (Out) > Tank Dell/Noah Brown/ Robert Woods (Q)
- Tee Higgins (Out) > Ja'Marr Chase & Tyler Boyd
- Justin Jefferson (Out) > Jordan Addison
- Zay Jones (Out)> Evan Engram
- Mack Hollins (Out) > Drake London
- Curtis Samuel (Q) > Jahan Dotson/ Jameson Crowder
Top Game Stacks:
- Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase & Tank Dell: 60 Points
- Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb & Saquon Barkley: 60 Points
- Jared Goff w/ Austin Ekeler & Amon-Ra St. Brown: 60 Points
- Jared Goff w/ Amon-Ra St. Brown & Keenan Allen: 58 Points
- Trevor Lawernce with Calvin Ridley & Christian McCaffery 56 Points
Top Targets
- QBs: Geno Smith (SEA), Joe Burrow (CIN)
- RBs: Aaron Jones (GB), Joe Mixon (CIN)
- WRs: Tank Dell (HOU), Tyler Lockett
There you have it! Good luck to everyone this week with your Reignmakers NFL Week 10 Lineup!
Click here to check out our entire suite of premium tools including our Portfolio Lineup Optimizer.
Week Ten is upon us, as we are officially halfway through the regular season. Last week, prices continued to decline, but not nearly as much as the previous week when new supply was introduced. Now, we are all but DONE with new supply coming to the market. The next batch of new supply, and the last batch, will come in the Holiday Packs, featuring player cards that one can use to try and win one million dollars on Thanksgiving.
This article focuses on capitalizing on market overreactions, which can yield returns regardless of the actual game outcomes. While player performance is undoubtedly important, gamers are starting to shape their portfolio to gain the most utility they can out of the cards, and that includes adding potential players who are expected to make the playoffs. Let's dive into the market over the last seven days and see if we can make a few good buys here this week.
Click here to explore the full roster of available players.
The Good
Quarterbacks
Following a standout performance last week, CJ Stroud has experienced a nearly 100% surge in his card prices, now hovering around $350.00 at the ELITE level. Other quarterbacks receiving significant positive price action are Geno Smith, a hopeful contender for the playoffs, and Dak Prescott. Smith, with ELITE-tier prices below $200, is gaining renewed attention as the slate approaches and the availability of solid quarterbacks diminishes.
Other quarterbacks, such as Deshaun Watson, who fully recovered from injury and is playing well, along with Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and even Mac Jones, have witnessed increases in their card prices over the past seven days.
Running Backs
The running back position, plagued by injuries, witnessed a couple of players' price increases due to their return from injury, while others benefited from counterparts in the backfield getting injured. Alexander Mattison in Minnesota, now the primary back for the Vikings following Cam Akers' season-ending Achilles injury, has seen a dramatic increase in card prices, with his ELITE editions now starting at over $100 for their floor. Green Bay's Aaron Jones, returning from injury, reached full form last week, finding the end zone, leading to a 50% rise in his card prices from around $150 to approximately $250 to start Week 10.
Other running backs experiencing card price increases over the last seven days include James Conner, set to return from injury reserve alongside quarterback Kyler Murray and a revamped Arizona team in Week 10. Breece Hall and Joe Mixon both observed a 25% rise in their prices. Lastly, David Montgomery's return from injury in Detroit has driven his card prices to around $240 at the ELITE tier. Overall, the price action for running backs was more positive this week than in previous weeks, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market, even evidenced by Tony Pollard, who saw a 10% increase week over week after a recent decline in card prices.
Wide Receivers
In the realm of wide receivers, Noah Brown and his Texan teammate Nathaniel "Tank" Dell are spearheading the surge, fueled by breakout performances against the Buccaneers last week and an injury to the Texans' top wide receiver Nico Collins, sidelining him for the upcoming weekend. Both Brown and Dell have witnessed over a 100% increase in their card prices over the last week, with Brown's prices escalating from $40 to over $120 in this short span. Another beneficiary of injuries, Tyler Boyd, is set to assume the role of the number two wide receiver for the Bengals, with Tee Higgins ruled out for this week's game and a possibility that Ja'marr Chase may also be absent, amplifying the value of Boyd's editions. Despite Higgins being sidelined this week, his card prices experienced a significant increase over the last seven days, now hovering around $260 for his ELITE tier cards.
Several other wide receivers have seen upticks in their card prices in the past week, including Quentin Johnson, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. After momentarily dipping to around $300 for his ELITE tier cards, Amon-Ra St. Brown has rebounded with a 25% increase, reaching approximately $400. CeeDee Lamb continues his upward trajectory, emerging as one of the most expensive ELITE tier cards in the game, with prices settling around $600. The return of Kyler Murray to the Arizona Cardinals' offense has positively influenced his playmakers, with James Conner and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown witnessing increases in their card prices over the last seven days.
The Bad
On the positive side of the market this week, a notable theme is the ELITE tier and above nearing its supply capacity. This has contributed to a stabilization in prices, easing the significant drop observed two weeks ago when the final premium supply packs entered the market. Currently, there are only occasional downturns for each player. Now, let's delve into some of the downward movers over the last seven days and explore whether there might be buy-low opportunities for players who may have underperformed in recent weeks.
Quarterbacks
Focusing on quarterbacks whose prices have declined over the last seven days, we see players like Daniel Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo, who are no longer starting for their respective teams. Unfortunately, Daniel Jones won't be available for the rest of the season due to injury. Starting quarterbacks who experienced a decrease in value over the last week include Taylor Heinicke, down by 30%, Gardner Minshew, down by 25%, and, with specific editions, Tua Tagovailoa's card is now around $400 at the ELITE tier, down about 20% week over week.
Lastly, it appears that Justin Herbert is somewhat limited due to his finger injury. If you haven't bought his card editions yet, you can find them for under $300 at the ELITE tier. Two other superstar quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, either aren't on the main slate this week or are on a bye. Their card prices have seen a slight downturn over the last seven days but have started to stabilize around $370 for the ELITE tier cards.
Running Backs
Experiencing declines in their card prices over the last seven days are notable names like Saquon Barkley, who may face challenges in scoring points for the remainder of the season, especially with Tommy DeVito stepping in as the quarterback following Daniel Jones's season-ending ACL tear in Week 9. For those eyeing a Kansas City Chiefs running back, this might be an opportune week to make a move, as Isaiah Pacheco's cards are on a downward trajectory, decreasing over 28% in the last seven days to a floor price of around $170 in his previous ELITE tier.
A couple of other significant players witnessing decreases in their card prices include D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and Kenneth Walker.
Wide Receivers
Don’t forget to explore our exclusive Reignmaker tools at Lucky Trader. Our lineup optimizer helps you craft optimal lineups tailored to your portfolio swiftly, significantly reducing your lineup creation time.
Week Nine is upon us, and we're halfway through the second DraftKings Reignmakers NFL season. It’s been interesting so far, particularly regarding sudden market shifts. Constant themes include overreactions to dominant or subpar performances and, of course, injuries.
This article focuses on capitalizing on market overreactions, which can yield returns regardless of the actual game outcomes. While player performance is undoubtedly important, the increasing supply of cards, particularly in the ELITE tier and above, have had a bit of a strain this week due to the new supply coming into other market. Let's see if we can find a couple of good buys from the marketplace strain for Week 9.
Click here to explore the full roster of available players.
The Good
With a brand new set and premium packs introduced, supply once again hurt marketplace values quite a bit, but there were still some standouts among the heap of negative returns over the last week.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, and Daniel Jones have seen their value rise over the last few days, with a mixture of players returning from injury and/or showcasing some ceiling potential recently. Sam Howell particularly shines, his ELITE tier prices skyrocketing around 50% to a staggering $200. Fellow quarterbacks Watson, Burrow, Smith, and Jones trail behind but with a commendable 10% rise in value
Running Backs
Gus Edwards' stellar performance last week resulted in a substantial 40% increase in card prices. Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley, too, saw their prices leap 15% and 10% respectively. Other noticeable risers include DeAndre Swift, Joe Mixon, and Devon Achane, whose return from the injured reserve positively impacted his value over the last seven days.
Wide Receivers
Quentin Johnston is our top performer, his card prices spiking about 50%. Following Johnston's lead are Tyler Boyd, Kahil Shakir, CeeDee. Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Tank Dell, Devante Adams, Brandon Ayuk, Ja'Marr Chase, and Stefon Diggs all achieved varied yet positive growth in their card prices.
The Bad
Over the past week, the running back card market has shown relative stability, with only a few starters experiencing notable price decreases. This trend highlights the theory that card prices appear to have reached a bottom. It's worth noting that Raheem Mostert's card prices have seen declines, particularly in his Play-Action set cards, as his performance was outside the main slate, where these cards typically have the most utility due to gated contests.
Several starters, such as Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, James Cook, and David Montgomery, have witnessed declines of at least 20% in their card prices over the last week. This suggests that the running back market is becoming less volatile and more balanced.
The Bad
With supply reaching its capacity soon, there could be some really good values here in the coming week or so. Let's take a look at some of the decliners over the last seven days.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Matt Stafford took noticeable hits, with Cousins's card prices plummeting almost 90%. Stafford's injury saw his value decrease by 60%, while Garoppolo's removal as the starter brought his prices down 75%. Additionally, the quarterback market strain led to a 10% decrease in value for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert's downgrade to SuperStar status and split responsibility with Tyreek Hill led to his prices plummeting sharply. Other struggling running backs include Roschon Johnson, James Cook, Alexander Madison, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne Jr., AJ Dillon, and Brian Robinson. Overall, the running back position saw a significant strain, with prices dipping roughly 10%-15%
Wide Receivers
Kendrick Bourne’s injury led to a staggering downfall, his prices dropping almost 100%. Similarly, Cooper Kupp, Jordan Addison, and Drake London experienced massive hits to their value due to injuries, with price decreases ranging from 50% to 55%. Other receivers such as Marquise Brown, Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, Amari Cooper, and Keenan Allen also suffered a significant drop in their prices.
Week Nine certainly showed how sudden performances and unfortunate injuries can dramatically impact the Reignmakers market dynamics. With half the season left, plenty of opportunities remain for players to rise above adversity and secure their place among the ELITE.
Don’t forget to explore our exclusive Reignmaker tools at Lucky Trader. Our lineup optimizer helps you craft optimal lineups tailored to your portfolio swiftly, significantly reducing your lineup creation time.
Calling all DraftKings Reignmakers enthusiasts! Today DraftKings introduces a riveting experience with a PREMIUM Pack Drop! There are three total pack drops today – two from the NFL segment and a unique one from PGA, its new Showdown set.
However, the excitement peaks as we delve into today's exclusive Air It Out Premium Packs. The scarcity has already fueled the hype, with only 678 packs available from today's drop. Featured within these limited packs are some of the top-notch players and their REIGNMAKER tier cards, promising to amplify the excitement of pack ripping today.
Deep Dive into "Air It Out Premium Booster" Pack EV Analysis
First, let's talk about the highlights from the pack, dropping for a price of $999.99. The pack has 3 cards in it, with certain guarantees. The guarantees are:
- ONE LEGENDARY or REIGNMAKER QB1, Skill Starter or Rookies - Offense Edition Tier Player
- ONE ELITE QB1 or Skill Starter Edition Tier Player
Next is the average results per pack by rarity tier, it is as follows:
- CORE - None
- RARE - None
- ELITE - 1.826 per pack*
- LEGENDARY - 1.055 per pack*
- REIGNMAKER - 0.119 per pack*
Now, lastly, the EV of these packs. The total value of these packs, based on our estimated value, comes in right around $1,000,000. With only 678 packs available, this brings our EV close to $1400, or based on the drop price, a positive EV of $400.
However, it's worth noting that there is a very large potential for a "bust" pack. It's possible that one could get a pack totaling less than $200 of marketplace value based on the distribution of cards and pack guarantees. If one's appetite for risk is high, and one plays at the ELITE tiers and above, these packs may be a perfect fit for you.
Be sure to check out our Premium Tools here at LuckyTrader, including our Lineup Optimizer, with plans starting at just $5.99 per week.
Make sure to check out all the available players here.
Did you get your free Reignmakers pack yet? Learn more in our guide.
